Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2019

Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

June 21, 2019Pecos County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jun 21, 2019, 5:36 PM CDT for Pecos County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 21, 2019, 5:36 PM CDT (22:36 UTC)
Expired
Jun 21, 2019, 8:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County Pecos County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2019-06-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1145 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 12:00Z on 2019-06-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 113 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1145 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-297 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2345 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

444 
WGUS54 KMAF 212236
FFWMAF
TXC371-220130-
/O.NEW.KMAF.FF.W.0018.190621T2236Z-190622T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
536 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

The National Weather Service in MIDLAND has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Pecos County in southwestern Texas...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a large thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. This storm was 
  drifting to the west at 5 mph. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches, 
  with localized higher amounts, have already occurred with this 
  storm. An Additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is expected. Flash 
  flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
  County. Part of Interstate 10 in this area could also have flash
  flooding. 

Do not drive through these low water crossings or any other low 
water crossing with water flowing across the roadway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Remain alert for flooding even in locations not receiving rain.
Arroyos and streams can become raging killer currents in a matter of 
minutes, even from distant rainfall.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 10245 3075 10243 3070 10273 3097 10273

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 21, 4:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 4:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
425 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Models this forecast cycle remain very consistent, when compared
to previous runs. The upper flow over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico will continue from the southwest, at least through Sunday
afternoon. Then, another upper trough axis will move out of the
southern Rockies and into the Plains. Meanwhile, some convection
may develop along and near a dryline; thus, this potential,
although a small potential, deserves at least 20 PoPs, for mainly
our eastern counties this evening, as well as Saturday and Sunday
evenings. Otherwise, for this next work week, the forecast is
mainly dry, except for perhaps afternoon convection over the Davis
Mountains a couple of days.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop behind a dryline
this afternoon with minimum relative humidity dropping to 8-15
percent across the Guadalupe Mountains and the southeast New
Mexico Plains. Despite ERC values mainly in the 25 to 50th
percentile, RFTI's will likely range from 3 to 5. Similar
conditions may develop Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     73  96  71  94 /  20  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       66  99  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         75  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Stockton                  71  98  70  96 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 65  91  63  87 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                          66  96  64  92 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          58  91  54  89 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           74  99  72  96 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         72  99  71  96 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                           69 101  68  98 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 21, 2:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-222000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
245 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 /145 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from the
Permian Basin southwestward across the Trans Pecos to the Davis
Mountains and Big Bend Area. A few storms may become strong to
severe with large hail and damaging winds.

Dry and breezy conditions will result in near critical fire
weather conditions today through early this evening in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the southeast New Mexico
Plains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 21, 3:32 PM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
332 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ075-212115-
Pecos TX-
332 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 332 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Bakersfield, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bakersfield around 410 PM CDT.
  Girvin around 415 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3079 10243 3092 10256 3109 10241 3108 10237
      3103 10227 3092 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 229DEG 7KT 3091 10243

Daniels
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 4:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
420 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ075-212200-
Pecos TX-
420 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

At 420 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Pecos
County.

LAT...LON 3088 10258 3096 10286 3127 10269 3108 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 214DEG 8KT 3099 10267

Daniels
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 4:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
428 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ279-282-212215-
Central Brewster County TX-Lower Brewster County TX-
428 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 32
miles southwest of Terrell County Airport, or 32 miles south of
Sanderson, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Brewster County.

LAT...LON 2990 10287 3000 10249 2976 10240 2979 10251
      2975 10255 2976 10257 2973 10263 2973 10266
      2975 10267 2972 10269 2967 10269 2967 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 163DEG 14KT 2970 10257

Daniels
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 4:51 PM CDT, 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
451 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ075-212230-
Pecos TX-
451 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles west of Bakersfield, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Pecos
County, including the following locations... Fort Stockton-Pecos
County Airport and Firestone Test Track.

LAT...LON 3111 10325 3126 10252 3081 10226 3058 10332
      3078 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 179DEG 12KT 3087 10256

Daniels
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 4:53 PM CDT, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
453 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ048-052-053-212245-
Mitchell TX-Scurry TX-Howard TX-
453 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHERN
SCURRY AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westbrook, or 15 miles west of Colorado City, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Colorado City Airport around 520 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Dunn, Vincent,
Randalls Corner, Ira, Winston Field, Cuthbert, Union and Buford.

LAT...LON 3224 10105 3234 10133 3253 10123 3253 10117
      3263 10117 3280 10108 3262 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 214DEG 20KT 3239 10112

Daniels
Special weather statement, Jun 21, 5:19 PM CDT, 17 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service MIDLAND TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
519 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

TXZ048-212245-
Scurry TX-
519 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SCURRY COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Snyder, moving north at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Scurry
County, including the following locations... Hudd.

LAT...LON 3271 10074 3275 10098 3296 10098 3297 10095
      3296 10066 3294 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 187DEG 17KT 3282 10087

Daniels

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 21, 3:32 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFPecos43 min
Jun 21, 4:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFPecos40 min
Jun 21, 4:28 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAF47 min
Jun 21, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster27 min
Jun 21, 4:51 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFPecos39 min
Jun 21, 4:53 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFMitchell52 min
Jun 21, 4:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos47 min
Jun 21, 5:13 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster, Terrell32 min
Jun 21, 5:19 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFScurry26 min
Jun 21, 5:24 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMAFPecos111 min
Jun 21, 5:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFScurry49 min
Jun 21, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos44 min
Jun 21, 5:54 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFMidland51 min
Jun 21, 6:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFEctor, Midland45 min
Jun 21, 6:03 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFBrewster42 min
Jun 21, 6:14 PM CDTTornado WarningMAFPecos31 min
Jun 21, 6:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster23 min
Jun 21, 6:28 PM CDTTornado WarningMAFPecos32 min
Jun 21, 6:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFBrewster, Pecos45 min
Jun 21, 6:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMAFHoward43 min
Jun 21, 6:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFPecos50 min
Jun 21, 6:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMAFHoward, Martin11 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2019Every flash flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.