Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
156 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus of today's forecast will be the not-so-secret severe
threat. Skies have already begun to thin out with a cumulus field
forming from southeast to northwest. This will allow the build up of
additional CAPE in which MLCAPE is already sitting at over 3000
J/kg. At the same time the dryline is just now approaching the TX/NM
state line at a slower/later pace than previously shown by short-
term models. This would hint at storms developing further west (west
of Lubbock) than current models are indicating (along/east of the
I27/US87 corridor). The one thing that could hinder westward
development would be mixing occurring across our western zones.
Right now at most this would hinder the extent of the significant
tornado threat, however it would not make it null. There are also
indications of convection trying to develop along the dryline with
light reflectivities showing up near Olton and Anton. Any storm that
develops will have a high probability of becoming severe. Very steep
lapse rates with 0-6km shear in excess of 50 knots will support the
potential for very large hail over 3-4 inches. 12Z soundings at MAF
and AMA revealed 0-1km SRH of 295 to 341 m2/s2 respectively. Current
analysis shows that SRH has decreased somewhat due to surface winds
becoming more southerly, but this does little to deter the threat
for tornadoes. SRH remains higher across the Rolling Plains and
eastern Texas Panhandle where the greatest tornado threat exists.
With abundant shear, helicity, and low LCLs some tornadoes will have
the potential to be violent.

Tomorrow the surface low will pull eastward across KS allowing for a
fairly windy day with near to above advisory level winds across much
of the FA especially across our northwestern zones. We could see
additional bouts of showers and thunderstorms by late week into
early weekend as another upper low digs into the Four Corners
region.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

51/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1130 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ021>044-210430-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-
Floyd-Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-
Yoakum-Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1130 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms including significant
tornadoes continues to be likely this afternoon and evening,
generally along and east of a line from Dimmitt to
Brownfield. The atmosphere will destabilize this afternoon east
of a dryline expected to stall across the central South Plains.
Supercells are likely to develop early to mid afternoon east of
the dryline and will race northeast at speeds of 45 to 50 mph.
These storms will be capable of producing long lived tornadoes,
giant hail to softball size, and damaging winds of 70 mph or more.
Later this evening, a large squall line is expected to develop on
the Caprock and sweep east accompanied by all modes of severe
weather, including flooding.

Today we advise those in West Texas to maintain high situational
awareness of the weather around them and understand that today's
environment will support rapid storm intensification and likely
produce high-end severe weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts are
expected over much of the region on Tuesday. Beginning
Wednesday night and continuing through Sunday, daily chances
for severe storms are expected as an active pattern resumes
across much of the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
445 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE FLOYDADA          34.00N 101.33W
05/20/2019  M74 MPH          FLOYD              TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900374

JGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
449 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S LUBBOCK             33.52N 101.88W
05/20/2019                   LUBBOCK            TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREE SNAPPED AT CORNER OF AVE W AND 77TH STREET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1900375

JGD