River Flood Warning 163, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
434 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Complex event unfolding this afternoon. Ongoing storms continue
along effective surface boundary, and should continue to slowly
weaken. Confidence in exactly what happens beyond this afternoon
is somewhat low as model guidance has been less than optimal.
However, believe discrete cells will develop over eastern
KS/western MO and eventually grow upscale into a QLCS, impacting
northern portions of the CWA. Timing has not changed much,
entering the CWA between 00z and 01z this evening.

Overall, the CAMs seem to have convection weakening too quickly,
which has been a trend over the past few days. The NSSL WRF seems
to be doing better, although, should only follow general trends.
Because of this, can not rule out a secondary QLCS impacting
portions of the CWA further south. As storms generate outflow
boundaries across the region and as the LLJ increases overnight,
expect additional storms to gradually push south across the CWA
overnight. While the severe threat should diminish somewhat
overnight, it will likely still exist given 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE with
steep lapse rates and a LLJ feeding the storms.

Storms should be exiting through the morning hours. With the area
under SW flow, another s/w over TX/OK will move into the area
during the afternoon hours, with thunderstorms continuing
overnight. Models are focusing potential for heavy rain across
portions of SE MO and have therefore issued a Flash Flood Watch
through Wed night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Little change has been made for the extended periods. NW flow sets
up over the area with cooler temps expected. Warmer temps expected
into the weekend and next week as height rises build back into the
region.

Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Not a lot of changes for forecast outside of thunderstorm cluster
expected to reach KUIN within the hour. This storm, potentially
severe, should continue east this afternoon leaving MVFR cigs in
its wake. Ongoing thunderstorms over KS are still expected to
move into the region this evening, and continue overnight. These
storms will likely be severe when impacting KUIN, but severe
threat continues into the night. Timing remains less certain,
especially overnight. Regardless, TSRA threat should diminish late
tonight through sunrise. Winds will return to SW with gusts around
20 kts again possible.

Tilly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     71  86  65  78 /  80  60 100  30
Quincy          65  84  61  75 / 100  30  60  30
Columbia        68  84  59  74 /  90  50  90  20
Jefferson City  69  85  60  75 /  90  50 100  20
Salem           72  84  65  78 /  70  80  90  50
Farmington      70  82  62  78 /  70  70 100  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Knox MO-Lewis MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-
     Shelby MO.

     Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through Thursday
     morning for Crawford MO-Iron MO-Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Washington MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
358 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-291200-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
358 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the region tonight.
Tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail will be possible.

Major river flooding is ongoing along parts of the Missouri,
Mississippi, and Illinois Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and
Wednesday night. The primary threats are large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

Thunderstorms are possible each day through Monday.

Major river flooding will continue this week along the Mississippi,
Missouri, and Illinois Rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather to the National
Weather Service.

Tilly

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             EWING                   40.01N 91.71W
05/28/2019  E1.75 INCH       LEWIS              MO   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK POST.

&&

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     HAIL             1 SE RENSSELAER         39.66N 91.54W
05/28/2019  E0.88 INCH       RALLS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT.

&&

KD