Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS St. Louis, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
141 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 515 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Another busy night of severe weather is underway as one supercell
has already developed over northeast MO ahead of a cold front in
in an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This same area is overlaid by
effective shear of 70kts and 0-1km shear of 20kts which supports
supercells capable of all hazards. CAMS runs have been showing
this scenario all day of supercell structures developing across
northeast and central Missouri into west central Illinois late
this afternoon that will eventually evolve into a QLCS by mid-late
evening as it moves into east central MO and southwest IL by late
evening and overnight. There will continue to be the threat for
severe weather during into the overnight hours before the storms
weaken toward morning.

Have issued a flash flood watch for central Missouri where
thunderstorms are expected to last the longest tonight. Given that
PWATS will be in the 1.5-2.0" range and soils are saturated, flash
flooding is a definite threat in this region.

The front will stall over southern Missouri and Illinois tomorrow.
The upper ridge will build over the area at the same time which
will act to limit coverage along the front given that amount of
instability along it. Will continue with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with only a marginal risk of severe weather given
the instability and shear values. The front will begin to lift
north of the area on Thursday night.

Britt

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 515 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Not much change in thinking to the forecast over the holiday
weekend into next week. Global deterministic models and GEFS still
depict a strong upper high will remain over southeast CONUS at the
same time a mean trough remains over the west into the middle of
next week. A west-east oriented frontal boundary will drop back
down into the CWA on Friday and Saturday which will act as a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development, a few of which could be
strong to severe based on strong/severe based on the instability/
shear forecast parameters. Coverage of thunderstorms into next
week will be determined by the ultimate location of the front and
how much upper ridging will be over the CWA. For now will keep
with above normal temperatures given forecast 850mb temperatures
between 15-20C and a persistent chance of thunderstorms.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Severe thunderstorms may largely miss STL metro sites but will
likely still result in several hours of TSRA. TSRA to be ending at
UIN and COU over the next few hours. Otherwise, look for a
generally low rain threat after 12z/Thu around and just south of
the I-70 corridor that will lift northward late in the day and
into tonight but not enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Mainly VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms with surface winds
veering NW this morning before becoming light and variable late
today and then easterly tonight.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

     Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Gasconade MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO.

IL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Adams IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
314 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-232015-
Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO-
Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-
Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-
Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL-
Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
Saint Clair IL-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-
Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO-
314 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected tonight over central, northeast and east-
central Missouri as well as west-central and southwest Illinois. A
few of these storms will likely become severe, capable of producing
isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds.

In addition to severe weather, there is a risk for heavy rainfall
over central Missouri where a flash flood watch is in effect.

Major river flooding is ongoing along portions of the Mississippi
and Illinois Rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Major river flooding is expected over the next week along the
Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois Rivers. Crests at some locations
will be close to or greater than what were seen earlier this year.

The risk for flash flooding will continue into early Thursday
morning. See the Flash Flood Watch for more information.

The chance for thunderstorms will continue from Thursday night
through Tuesday across parts of the area. A few strong to severe
storms are possible Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight across much of
central and eastern Missouri as well as west central Illinois.

Britt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1251 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 AM     TORNADO          1 SSW JEFFERSON CITY    38.55N 92.20W
05/23/2019                   COLE               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TROOP C REPORTS MULTIPLE INJURIES AND
            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO THE BEST WESTERN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
102 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE JEFFERSON CITY    38.56N 92.15W
05/22/2019                   COLE               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED THAT SEVERAL HOUSES HAVE
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE, SOME COLLAPSED. THE
            SCHOOL HAS SUFFERED EXTENSIVE ROOF DAMAGE.
            SEVERAL TREES ARE STRIPPED AND POWER LINES
            ARE DOWN IN THE AREA. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE
            IN MANY AREAS WITH DEBRIS THROUGHOUT THE
            EASTERN SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
125 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TORNADO          2 SSW JEFFERSON CITY    38.54N 92.20W
05/22/2019                   COLE               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE STARTS AROUND CHRISTY DRIVE
            AND HIGHWAY 179 AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST.
            DAMAGE PATH CROSSES ELLIS BLVD NEAR HIGHWAY
            54 AND CONTINUED ON NEAR TANNER BRIDGE. THE
            500 BLOCK OF ELLIS BLVD AND APPROXIMATE AREA
            AROUND THE 600 BLOCK OF STADIUM BLVD HAS
            SUFFERED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE, WHICH INCLUDES
            JEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOL. AT THIS TIME THERE IS
            NO CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THAT THE MISSOURI TROOP
            HQ HAS BEEN IMPACTED. THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF
            TOWN IS COMPLETELY DARK DUE TO POWER
            OUTAGES.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
220 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     HAIL             HONEY BEND              39.26N 89.63W
05/23/2019  M0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RELAYED REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL FROM HONEY
            BEND. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
222 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     TSTM WND GST     RAYMOND                 39.32N 89.57W
05/23/2019  E35 MPH          MONTGOMERY         IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            RELAYED REPORT. GUSTS ESTIMATED. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
238 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TORNADO          1 SE JEFFERSON CITY     38.56N 92.18W
05/22/2019                   COLE               MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 1 SE
            JEFFERSON CITY. REPORTS OF PEOPLE TRAPPED IN
            THERE BASEMENT.

&&