Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
648 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
19/12Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
A broad swath of tstms arcs acrs SE TX, with a persistent band of
+RA. This activity will continue to impact BPT through much of
the morning, with IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys in periods of +RA, as well
as frequent ltg and gusty winds. Conditions should gradually
improve through the aftn, although periods of rainfall will still
be expected. Further east, periods of light to modt rain are
expected at LCH, with ocnl lower cigs/vsbys, while intmtnt -SHRA
are possible at AEX/LFT/ARA. Rain chcs will gradually diminish
through the evening as moisture associated with TD Imelda lifts
northward.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 456 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/

..Life Threatening Flash Flooding Occurring in Lower Southeast
Texas...

SYNOPSIS...
Bullet Points...

Persistent intense rain band with rainfall rates of at or above
2-3 inches per hour over portions of lower southeast Texas will
continue through at-least the mid morning before it begins to
weaken and shift somewhat to the north. Additional Rainfall
amounts for southeast Texas of 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher
amounts.

So far a swath of rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches with
isolated amounts nearing 29 inches across portions of southeast
Texas. Any additional rainfall will cause significant and life
threatening flash flooding.

Heavy rainbands will begin to enter extreme southwest Louisiana
later this morning. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches
with isolated higher amounts for this area.

Flash Flood Watch through 7 pm local for all of southeast Texas
and far west and southwest Louisiana.

A High Risk of Flash Flooding today for southeast Texas and a
Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding for southwest Louisiana.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
Imelda is showing why we should never take just a "minimal"
tropical storm or tropical depression lightly as slow moving
tropical systems with copious amounts of tropical moisture can
cause significant and life threatening impacts.

All the ingredients are still there for excessive rainfall to
occur in portions of southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana.
Precipitable water values are analyzed between 2.3 and 2.5 inches
which are near or exceeding daily climo maxes. Meanwhile, good
inflow at 85H-70H around 30 knots with uni-directional winds
allowing for efficient precipitation producers and training.

Latest reliable hi-res cams continue to show persistent intense
rain bands over the southeast Texas area through at-least mid-
morning then a slow broadening and lifting of bands to the north.
At the same time we will have to watch any expansion of these
bands to the east into southwest Louisiana.

At this point, the center of Imelda is expected to move further
north today. Question is how the feeder bands with intense
rainfall set up tonight. It looks like this may a bit further to
the north, so did not extend the Flash Flood Watch past 7 pm.
However, day shift will have to take a close look at this.

High pressure at the surface and aloft begin to build over during
the weekend into early next week with a reduction in rain chances,
and still hot daytime temperatures despite the beginning of
"Fall."

Rua

MARINE...
Inflow into convergence boundary along the coast will allow for
elevated winds and seas for the southeast Texas coast through the
morning hours and will have small craft exercise caution for that
area. As the low with tropical depression Imelda moves further
north into northeast Texas, the gradient will relax somewhat.

Over the weekend, high pressure will ridge in from the east and
provide modest easterly winds and seas.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  71  86  69 /  80  50  50  10
LCH  82  75  86  74 /  80  30  50  10
LFT  84  74  87  72 /  60  30  50  10
BPT  81  77  85  76 /  90  50  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027-030-041-073-
     074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     GMZ450-470.

&&

AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
425 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

LAZ027-030-041-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-201100-
Vernon-Beauregard-Calcasieu-West Cameron-East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-
Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-
Southern Newton-
425 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms with the possibility of gusty winds, locally
heavy downpours, and occasional cloud to ground lighting on Friday
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LAZ028-029-031>033-042>045-052>055-201100-
Rapides-Avoyelles-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-
Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-
Lower St. Martin-
425 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Louisiana, south
central Louisiana and southwest Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and locally heavy
downpours along with occasional cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and locally heavy
downpours along with occasional cloud to ground lightning on Friday
and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-201100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA
out 20 NM-Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
425 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Some thunderstorms that will produce locally higher winds and seas
along with occasional cloud to water lightning for locations near the
coast of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
334 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIDOR                   30.13N 94.00W
09/19/2019                   ORANGE             TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS SEVERAL HOMES FLOODED AND WATER RESCUES
            TAKING PLACE IN THE CITY OF VIDOR.

&&

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE HAMSHIRE          29.88N 94.26W
09/19/2019  M28.11 INCH      JEFFERSON          TX   MESONET

            A JEFFERSON COUNTY DD6 ALERT GAGE AS OF 3 AM CDT IS
            REPORTING A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 28.11 INCHES WITH
            17.24 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.

&&

JRUA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
618 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE HAMSHIRE          29.91N 94.29W
09/19/2019  M33.58 INCH      JEFFERSON          TX   MESONET

            A JEFFERSON COUNTY DD6 ALERT GAGE AT HIGHWAY 124 AND
            NORTH FORK TAYLORS BAYOU AS OF 610 AM IS REPORTING A
            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 33.58 INCHES WITH 25.75 INCHES IN
            THE LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

JRUA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
723 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FANNETT                 29.93N 94.25W
09/19/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TXDOT REPORTS BOTH DIRECTIONS OF I-10 CLOSED NEAR
            FANNETT.

&&

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