Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
748 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.AVIATION...Tropical Depression Imalda lingering over east Texas
will maintain an active weather pattern. Bulk of convection at
this time associated with feature remains over lower southeast
Texas and carrying most robust TAF for the BPT terminal overnight
for rounds of heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
Activity is expected to ease further east with rains arriving at
LCH after midnight and carrying -RA prevailing. Maintaining VCSH
at all other terminals overnight and Thursday morning then
transtioning to a PROB30 for the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...The center of Imelda continues to slowly move north
across San Jacinto and Polk Counties in Southeast Texas. Moisture
will continue to stream inland around the circulation through
tonight and Thursday. As typical with tropical systems,
convection has been on the decline through this afternoon, however
rain is expected to amplify late tonight into Thursday morning.
As evident with the satellite, Imelda continues to good outflow
across the east half, if not across 3/4 of the system. This will
allow for night time convection to re-fire and no reason for a
reduction of the FF watch or a downplay of the rainfall wording.
Guidance suggest that a pair of maximum rain totals will occur
near and east of the center and near the coast to just inland
across SETX. The convection will then spread east again through
the day, much like today. This is expected to produce another 1 to
6 inches across the western parishes and another 3 to 10 inches
in Southeast Texas through early Friday. Isolated higher amounts
will be possible.

The storm totals so far across Jefferson County where most of the
highest precip has been are generally in the 4 to 6 inch range,
however the highest is near Hampshire-Fannet with 9.92".

Friday and into the weekend, rain chances will gradually decrease
as the remnants of Imelda exits and high pressure builds in. The
ridge is expected to remain in place through the coming week
keeping afternoon convection on the isolated side.

MARINE...Squally weather is expected across the coastal waters
through Friday as the remnants of Imelda gradually move north
across Southeast Texas. High pressure will build into the region
this weekend through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  85  71  87 /  40  60  30  40
LCH  75  83  75  87 /  80  80  30  50
LFT  75  86  74  87 /  20  40  20  50
BPT  76  81  77  86 / 100  90  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ027-030-041-
     073-074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
192100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heavy rain associated with the remnants of Imelda will remain
possible through tonight across Southeast Texas and West
Louisiana. Flash flooding will remain a concern.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight with gusty
winds and frequent lightning the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday. Heavy
downpours, gusty winds and occasional cloud to ground lightning will
be possible with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-192100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and seas will be
locally higher near the storms, along with occasional cloud to
water lightning and greatly reduced visibilities from heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible on Thursday.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near the storms, along with
occasional cloud to water lightning and greatly reduced
visibilities from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
933 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

TXZ215-216-190315-
Orange TX-Jefferson TX-
933 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Port Acres, or near Nederland, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Central Gardens,
Fannett, La Belle, Port Acres and Southeast Texas Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2995 9426 3004 9391 2985 9392 2985 9394
      2984 9395 2982 9394 2982 9393 2981 9393
      2981 9395 2980 9394 2979 9394 2977 9393
      2975 9393 2978 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 238DEG 22KT 2990 9408

MM