Flash Flood Warning 86, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1245 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For the 09/19/19 0600 UTC TAF package.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected to prevail at KAEX and the Acadiana terminals.
More problematic weather farther west in association with
convection/rain wrapping across SE TX and SW LA into the nearly
stalled center of TD Imelda located to the W of KLFK. Heaviest
activity during the overnight period is expected to continue
affecting KBPT, with IFR amid heavy rain and thunderstorms. Mainly
prevailing VFR amid light rain at KLCH. Evolution beyond the
overnight period is a bit more uncertain, but for this forecast
went with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and steady rain at both locations for
the morning, improving to VFR CIGS with MVFR VSBYS and rain.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
No big changes made to the forecast, except to increase rainfall
amounts a bit across east Texas the rest of the night based on
observational data and latest hi-res guidance. TD Imelda has moved
very little since this afternoon, with convergent bands of
convection continuing to wrap around the center across SE TX. Most
vigorous convection at this time currently over Central Jefferson
County, with IR cloud tops of -80C in a persistent E-W oriented
band. Additional development a little farther to the north over
Liberty County starting to set up a cell training event across
northern Jefferson and southern Hardin. This activity curls
northward across western Orange County and through the length of
Jasper/Newton Counties. Radar estimates along with observations
from Jefferson County indicate hourly rates of 3 to 5 inches are
possible in the heaviest convection, and that a wide swath of 3 to
6 inches has fallen over the past 6 hours, with pockets of 7 to 9
inches. An additional 5 to 10 inches is possible across parts of
east Texas, with 2 to 6 possible farther east into Southwest LA.

There is also a tornado risk with the more robust convective
cells, as we have monitored several tonight that exhibited
rotation.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

AVIATION...Tropical Depression Imelda lingering over east Texas
will maintain an active weather pattern. Bulk of convection at
this time associated with feature remains over lower southeast
Texas and carrying most robust TAF for the BPT terminal overnight
for rounds of heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
Activity is expected to ease further east with rains arriving at
LCH after midnight and carrying -RA prevailing. Maintaining VCSH
at all other terminals overnight and Thursday morning then
transitioning to a PROB30 for the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...The center of Imelda continues to slowly move north
across San Jacinto and Polk Counties in Southeast Texas. Moisture
will continue to stream inland around the circulation through
tonight and Thursday. As typical with tropical systems,
convection has been on the decline through this afternoon, however
rain is expected to amplify late tonight into Thursday morning.
As evident with the satellite, Imelda continues to good outflow
across the east half, if not across 3/4 of the system. This will
allow for night time convection to re-fire and no reason for a
reduction of the FF watch or a downplay of the rainfall wording.
Guidance suggest that a pair of maximum rain totals will occur
near and east of the center and near the coast to just inland
across SETX. The convection will then spread east again through
the day, much like today. This is expected to produce another 1 to
6 inches across the western parishes and another 3 to 10 inches
in Southeast Texas through early Friday. Isolated higher amounts
will be possible.

The storm totals so far across Jefferson County where most of the
highest precip has been are generally in the 4 to 6 inch range,
however the highest is near Hampshire-Fannet with 9.92".

Friday and into the weekend, rain chances will gradually decrease
as the remnants of Imelda exits and high pressure builds in. The
ridge is expected to remain in place through the coming week
keeping afternoon convection on the isolated side.

MARINE...Squally weather is expected across the coastal waters
through Friday as the remnants of Imelda gradually move north
across Southeast Texas. High pressure will build into the region
this weekend through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  87  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
LCH  75  87  74  88 /  30  50  10  30
LFT  74  87  72  90 /  20  50  10  30
BPT  77  86  76  85 /  30  50  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ027-030-041-073-
     074.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
192100-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heavy rain associated with the remnants of Imelda will remain
possible through tonight across Southeast Texas and West
Louisiana. Flash flooding will remain a concern.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight with gusty
winds and frequent lightning the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Thursday. Heavy
downpours, gusty winds and occasional cloud to ground lightning will
be possible with the storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-192100-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
355 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds and seas will be
locally higher near the storms, along with occasional cloud to
water lightning and greatly reduced visibilities from heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms possible on Thursday.
Winds and seas will be locally higher near the storms, along with
occasional cloud to water lightning and greatly reduced
visibilities from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED MAJOR ROAD FLOODING AND
            FLOODING IN SEVERAL HOMES.

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1102 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF FLOOD WATERS IN A HOME IN CALDWOOD NEIGHBORHOOD
            IN BEAUMONT.

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1103 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF HOMES FLOODED IN AMELIA NEIGHBORHOOD IN
            BEAUMONT.

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1104 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHINA                   30.05N 94.34W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA PARTNER RECEIVED REPORTS OF HOMES FLOODED
            IN CHINA.

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FANNETT                 29.93N 94.25W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA PARTNER RECEIVED REPORTS OF HOMES FLOODED
            IN FANNETT

&&

RMEGNIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
09/18/2019                   JEFFERSON          TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC SENT PICTURES ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF MAJOR ROAD
            FLOODING ON CROW ROAD IN BEAUMONT. THERE WAS ALSO A
            MENTION OF WATER RESCUES IN THIS AREA.

&&

RMEGNIA