Alert archive / Nebraska / Special Weather Statements in 2019

Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

August 8, 2019Lincoln County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this special weather statement at Aug 8, 2019, 3:00 PM CDT for Lincoln County, Nebraska. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 8, 2019, 3:00 PM CDT (20:00 UTC)
Expired: Aug 8, 2019, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE

County Lincoln County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 27 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 956 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 861 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 8, 1:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 8, 1:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
155 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Thunderstorm chances tonight are a blend of the RAP, HRRR, HREF,
NAMdng and model consensus shifted north about 50 miles. This places
a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms across the Sandhills which
lines up with radar and satellite trends showing a disturbance
aimed at that region. Sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary
from roughly KCDR-KTIF-KBBW for sfc focus.

The deep layer shear is quite strong with winds of 40-50kts in the
400-300mb level and high values of SBCAPE around 4000 J/KG should
support a few briefly severe storms capable of large hail and wind
damage. Winds at 500mb are weak at just 20 kts. Precipitable water
increases to around 1.50 inches supporting a locally heavy rainfall
threat.

The models are fairly quiet Friday afternoon with just an isolated
strong storm or two forming on the Cheyenne divide in Nebraska. The
models show this activity dropping due-south into Colorado. Just an
isolated POP is in place across parts of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The
the area of concern for storm development might be northwest
Nebraska and swrn SD where the NAM and HREF show a dryline bulge
developing late in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

The SREF and GFS ensemble output continue to show a subtropical
disturbance crossing Nebraska Saturday night. The deterministic
models such as the NAM, GFS, GEM and ECM show the same but the
precip location varies from nrn KS to Nebraska. Precipitable water
will be very high for this event approaching 2.00 inches across wrn
Nebraska which would certainly support heavy rainfall depending on
the track of the upper level support. The forecast is for a 40-50
percent rain chance and later forecasts may include the mention of
locally heavy rainfall.

The flow aloft orients more southwest to northeast Saturday and
beyond as the subtropical ridge across NM-TX migrates east toward LA-
AR. At the same time, an upper level low moves into the Pacific
Northwest. The models show the deep subtropical moisture being
shunted south and east of Nebraska Monday or Tuesday and this should
draw drier and cooler air south from Canada. The model consensus is
in good agreement showing dew points falling into the 50s to around
60 Tuesday. One or more significant rain events is possible Sunday
and Monday before the atmosphere dries out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

The primary aviation weather concerns for western Nebraska are
isolated thunderstorms and low ceilings. Stratocumulus clouds with
bases around 3kft have developed across southwest and central
Nebraska and will likely linger through the afternoon. Storm
chances increase this evening, primarily in far western Neb, but
cannot rule out a stray shower near KLBF and KVTN. Overnight,
stratus builds in, resulting in MVFR and possibly IFR cigs.
Southerly surface winds increase toward late morning Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 8, 7:29 AM CDT, 7 hours 31 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 8, 1:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 8, 2:28 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 8, 3:00 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 7:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Holt	29 min
Aug 7, 9:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Boyd	48 min
Aug 7, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Boyd, Holt	44 min
Aug 7, 9:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Cherry	41 min
Aug 7, 9:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Holt	32 min
Aug 7, 10:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Holt	45 min
Aug 7, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Holt	49 min
Aug 7, 11:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Keya Paha	49 min
Aug 8, 1:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Arthur	41 min
Aug 8, 2:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	McPherson	47 min
Aug 8, 2:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Frontier	56 min
Aug 8, 3:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	McPherson	41 min
Aug 8, 3:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	LBF	Keith, Perkins	54 min
Aug 8, 3:33 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Lincoln	2 hr
Aug 8, 3:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Lincoln	44 min
Aug 8, 3:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Grant	40 min
Aug 8, 3:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	LBF	Lincoln	119 min
Aug 8, 4:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Hooker	39 min
Aug 8, 4:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Custer	50 min
Aug 8, 4:25 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Lincoln	3 hr
Aug 8, 4:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Lincoln	45 min
Aug 8, 4:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier, Lincoln	37 min
Aug 8, 4:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Blaine, Garfield, Loup	42 min
Aug 8, 4:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Custer	51 min
Aug 8, 5:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Grant	45 min
Aug 8, 5:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Frontier, Lincoln	46 min
Aug 8, 5:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Hayes	44 min
Aug 8, 5:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Frontier, Hayes	3 hr
Aug 8, 5:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Blaine, Garfield, Loup	45 min
Aug 8, 5:39 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LBF	Blaine, Custer, Loup	3 hr
Aug 8, 5:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Grant	45 min
Aug 8, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Garfield, Holt, Loup	51 min
Aug 8, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Frontier	48 min
Aug 8, 6:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Garfield	42 min
Aug 8, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LBF	Thomas	45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Nebraska, 2019 Every special weather statement in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.