Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
155 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Thunderstorm chances tonight are a blend of the RAP, HRRR, HREF,
NAMdng and model consensus shifted north about 50 miles. This places
a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms across the Sandhills which
lines up with radar and satellite trends showing a disturbance
aimed at that region. Sfc analysis shows a weak frontal boundary
from roughly KCDR-KTIF-KBBW for sfc focus.

The deep layer shear is quite strong with winds of 40-50kts in the
400-300mb level and high values of SBCAPE around 4000 J/KG should
support a few briefly severe storms capable of large hail and wind
damage. Winds at 500mb are weak at just 20 kts. Precipitable water
increases to around 1.50 inches supporting a locally heavy rainfall
threat.

The models are fairly quiet Friday afternoon with just an isolated
strong storm or two forming on the Cheyenne divide in Nebraska. The
models show this activity dropping due-south into Colorado. Just an
isolated POP is in place across parts of wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The
the area of concern for storm development might be northwest
Nebraska and swrn SD where the NAM and HREF show a dryline bulge
developing late in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

The SREF and GFS ensemble output continue to show a subtropical
disturbance crossing Nebraska Saturday night. The deterministic
models such as the NAM, GFS, GEM and ECM show the same but the
precip location varies from nrn KS to Nebraska. Precipitable water
will be very high for this event approaching 2.00 inches across wrn
Nebraska which would certainly support heavy rainfall depending on
the track of the upper level support. The forecast is for a 40-50
percent rain chance and later forecasts may include the mention of
locally heavy rainfall.

The flow aloft orients more southwest to northeast Saturday and
beyond as the subtropical ridge across NM-TX migrates east toward LA-
AR. At the same time, an upper level low moves into the Pacific
Northwest. The models show the deep subtropical moisture being
shunted south and east of Nebraska Monday or Tuesday and this should
draw drier and cooler air south from Canada. The model consensus is
in good agreement showing dew points falling into the 50s to around
60 Tuesday. One or more significant rain events is possible Sunday
and Monday before the atmosphere dries out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

The primary aviation weather concerns for western Nebraska are
isolated thunderstorms and low ceilings. Stratocumulus clouds with
bases around 3kft have developed across southwest and central
Nebraska and will likely linger through the afternoon. Storm
chances increase this evening, primarily in far western Neb, but
cannot rule out a stray shower near KLBF and KVTN. Overnight,
stratus builds in, resulting in MVFR and possibly IFR cigs.
Southerly surface winds increase toward late morning Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-092030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2019 /217 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of western
and north central Nebraska through tonight. A few of the storms
will be capable of producing strong winds and large hail,
primarily south of Highway 2. Torrential rainfall may also lead
to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Near daily thunderstorm chances exist into the middle of next
week. A marginal risk of severe weather is in place for Friday
evening for hail, wind, and torrential rainfall. Refer to later
forecasts regarding severe potential beyond Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight, mainly
for areas south of Highway 2. Reports of hail, wind, and flooding
are appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
533 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH PLATTE            41.13N 100.77W
08/08/2019  M3.10 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CURB TO CURB FLOODING ON FRONT STREET

&&

CCOLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
445 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019

NEZ004-022-023-082330-
Sheridan NE-Grant NE-Garden NE-
445 PM MDT Thu Aug 8 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRANT...NORTHEASTERN
GARDEN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 445 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Ellsworth, or 36 miles east of Alliance. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dominick Lake, Swede Lake, Bingham, Kincaid Lake and Wild Horse
Flats.

This includes Highway 2 between mile markers 121 and 134.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4193 10231 4209 10222 4195 10174 4177 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 274DEG 3KT 4200 10217

Snively