Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
640 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The rapid refresh models have analyzed a h700mb wave across the
Colorado front range this afternoon and a larger more formidable
disturbance near Salt Lake City. Thunderstorms are forming on the
Front Range in response to daytime heating and the h700mb wave.
Additional storm development is expected across ern Wyoming from
the Salt Lake disturbance. If these two areas of thunderstorms can
merge then very heavy rain will fall across swrn Nebraska
tonight, along and south of Interstate 80.

As it stands, the models are in good agreement developing a MCS
across the Plains tonight, but the track of the storm complex varies
from Interstate 70 in KS to near Interstate 80 in Nebraska.

The focus is an h850mb warm front poised along or south of the KS
border. Very high precipitable water between 1.5 and 2.0 inches will
be operating with 20kt winds at h500mb to produce heavy
thunderstorms. Winds at 300mb are stronger, near 40kts, suggests the
potential for brief severe storms. Given the fast and progressive
nature of the disturbance, it would seem wind damage will out-weigh
the threat of large hail.

POPs for this event have been raised to near the likely category and
the QPF forecast uses the wettest models such as the HRRR, RAP, HREF
and NAM. No flood watch will be issued with this forecast for a few
reasons. 1) the system appears to be fast moving. 2) the one hour
flood guidance is around 2 inches. 3) the predictability of the
track of MCS is low. 4) some models like the HRRR develop very
little storm activity across Wyoming and favor KS over Nebraska for
heavy rainfall.

Moisture availability suggests an inch of rainfall could fall in 20
minutes as the storms roll through swrn Nebraska tonight and this
will likely produce localized flooding. Storm activity should be in
or approaching the eastern Panhandle around 23z this afternoon.

The models are mostly quiet, rain-wise, Thursday and Thursday night.
The SREF and NAMnest suggest storm activity developing on the
Cheyenne divide Thursday afternoon. This could affect the Panhandle
and swrn Nebraska Thursday night. Otherwise rain chances are mostly
isolated.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

The GFS and GFS ensemble are circulating another subtropical
disturbance, currently over Baja Mexico, north through the Rockies
and into Nebraska Saturday night. The ECM and GEM models are a
bit south of the GFS. The SREF, GFS and NAM models show a surge of
moisture ahead of the disturbance with precipitable water
increasing to over 1.5 inches. Considering the dynamics and
moisture available, the POP forecast is on the low side with just
40 percent in place. Later forecasts will likely raise this rain
chance if the model forecast continuity is good.

The subtropical moisture aloft and Gulf moisture in the lower levels
is expected to decrease early next week. This is in the wake of a
fairly strong cold front forecast to move through Sunday. High
temperatures fall off into the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and
beyond and rain chances become mostly isolated after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Thunderstorm impacts continue to remain the greatest aviation
concern in the current TAF cycle. A secondary concern will be low
ceilings overnight and into Thursday morning. So far the storm
coverage has been isolated and mainly confined to the west and
north central Nebraska. In time we expect a greater coverage of
storms, but not enough to warrant a prevailing group for either
LBF or VTN. Initial storms may be severe with large hail,
significant reductions in visibility and erratic gusty wind.
Behind the storms, showers will give way to stratus overnight with
MVFR or locally IFR possible.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-082015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 /212 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through western and north
central Nebraska this evening and tonight. Some storms may be
severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The
greatest potential for severe weather is generally along and south
of Highway 92. Torrential rainfall may lead to localized flooding,
especially for areas south of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Daily thunderstorm chances exist through early next week, mainly
during the evening and nighttime hours. A marginal risk of severe
weather is in place for the eastern panhandle for Thursday, while
the risk spreads across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska on
Friday. The main threats are hail, strong winds, and very heavy
rain. Refer to later forecasts regarding severe potential for
Saturday and beyond.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening, especially across
southwest Nebraska. Reports of hail, wind, and flooding are
appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
602 PM CDT WED AUG 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             2 SW NEWPORT            42.58N 99.36W
08/07/2019  M1.00 INCH       ROCK               NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL HALF INCH TO QUARTER SIZE.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

NEZ010-080015-
Holt NE-
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOLT COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

At 634 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atkinson, or 11 miles west of O'Neill, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
O'neill, O'Neill, Atkinson, Ewing, Page, Inman and Emmet.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 20 between mile markers 285 and 328.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 170 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4215 9830 4240 9914 4263 9903 4253 9831
      4231 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 281DEG 42KT 4253 9886

Thorne