Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The latest update is account for the on going showers across
northwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle. Rainfall amounts
are generally a tenth of an inch per hour or less, but the KLNX
radar estimates it could be as high as a quarter of an inch per
hour over eastern Sheridan and far western Cherry Counties. This
morning convection should set up a boundary which additional convection
across SW NEB will develop or intensify later this afternoon.
Several CAMs and the incoming 12Z NAM are highlighting southwest
Nebraska for heavy rainfall and a marginal risk of severe weather.
We increased rainfall amounts in this area which serves our
current flood watch well.

UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A forecast update is in place for the showers which are farther
south than forecast by the HRRR and RAP models.

UPDATE Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The HRRR, RAP and NAM continue to indicate heavy rain tonight (1.5
to 4 inches). A Flood Watch is in place late this afternoon
through Monday morning for the southern Sandhills and parts of
southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

An upper level disturbance across Wyoming moves into nwrn Nebraska
this morning and casts a weak Sfc front across the Sandhills and
Southwest Nebraska this afternoon. The front is expected to become
the focus for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall late this
afternoon and this evening with the best rain chance across the
Sandhills.

The model consensus shows the front and the rain shifting slowing
south and east late tonight and decays Monday morning across ncntl
Nebraska.

If the model consensus is correct, a sfc front will reform across
the Sandhills and swrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. Once again the
front will be the focus for locally heavy rainfall late Monday
afternoon.

The rain forecast today, tonight and Monday uses a blend of the
HRRR, RAP, HREF and the model blend. The NAM was not used as it
places the heavier rain south of the model consensus including the
SREF which keeps the heaviest rain across the cntl Sandhills this
afternoon and tonight. The temperature forecast today through
Monday uses the guidance blend plus bias correction which worked
well Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The model consensus suggests the best rain chances Monday night are
along and south of Interstate 80. A check on moisture advection in
the NAM and other models indicates weak winds around 15-20kts at
h850 and 700mb, and 15-25kts at h500mb. This will support slow
moving ordinary thunderstorms that are outflow dominant. Ambient
precipitable water of 1.25-1.4 inches supports a low or marginal
risk for flooding given the weak moisture advection shown by the
models.

The models continue to show a mostly closed h700mb low forming
across srn Nebraska Tuesday. This supports a continue chance of
showers and thunderstorms across wrn and ncntl Nebraska with the
best chance for heavy rain across eastern Nebraska, east of the
h700mb low.

The model consensus is in good agreement for 500mb winds to increase
to 40-50kts Wednesday through Saturday. The instability however
remains very modest with MLCAPE generally less than 2000J/KG. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 produce very little
instability. Thus, there are opportunities for a few strong or
isolated severe storms late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are the primary aviation
weather concern across western Nebraska through the forecast
period. The most widespread thunder activity will take place this
evening and tonight. Drops in cigs and visby, along with erratic
gusty winds are expected with any thunderstorm. Persistent lower
cigs, resulting in MVFR, are likely across northern terminals
(including KVTN) Monday morning as a stratus deck builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The latest CAMs with support from the 12z operational NAM continue
to highlight the potential of a 1-4" of rainfall centered over
southwest Nebraska. We are a bit concerned that this rain may
center slightly northeast over the central Sandhills where the
water table is abnormally high. Given that it is still early and
the latest guidance is rolling in now, we are not going to make
any major changes to the flood watch that was issued this
morning, but are evaluating the need to expand it northeast.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon through
Monday morning for NEZ023-024-035-036-057>059-069-070.

&&

UPDATE...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
HYDROLOGY...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 /1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect western and north central
Nebraska through the evening and nighttime hours. The primary
concerns are very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
a few storms may produce large hail and strong winds, primarily
along and west of Highway 83.

A Flood Watch is in effect through early Monday morning for
portions of the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Rainfall
totals may exceed one inch, which could lead to street and lowland
flooding. An already high water table and area road closures would
worsen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

The threat for strong thunderstorms and very heavy rain continues
Monday and Monday night. Hail and wind are the primary severe
threats. Rainfall totals could exceed one inch locally.

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday through Saturday.
The threat for organized severe weather during this time is low
though additional locally heavy rain will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of west central
and southwest Nebraska late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS/NJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
107 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ057-058-161930-
Perkins NE-Keith NE-
107 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 106 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Big Springs, moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Perkins and southwestern Keith Counties.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 116 and
117.

LAT...LON 4103 10205 4109 10189 4092 10178 4086 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 247DEG 7KT 4095 10199

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             2 N IMPERIAL            40.55N 101.64W
06/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING HIGHWAY 61 2 MILES NORTH OF
            IMPERIAL.

&&

SJACOBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     HAIL             1 N IMPERIAL            40.53N 101.64W
06/16/2019  M1.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
136 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ057-058-162015-
Perkins-Keith-
136 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PERKINS...SOUTH
CENTRAL KEITH AND NORTHERN CHASE COUNTIES...

At 135 PM MDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Brule to 6 miles
southwest of Grant. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Grant, Madrid and Wild Horse Spring.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 54 and 83.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4109 10149 4070 10145 4070 10191 4106 10192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 270DEG 17KT 4100 10181 4077 10182

BJT/DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             5 ESE IMPERIAL          40.49N 101.55W
06/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
200 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ056-057-162045-
Deuel-Keith-
200 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN KEITH AND EASTERN
DEUEL COUNTIES...

At 200 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ovid, or near
Julesburg, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barton and Goldeneye State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 87 and
107.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4122 10232 4103 10205 4100 10211 4100 10246
      4101 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 221DEG 9KT 4101 10235

BJT/DS