Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS North Platte, NE

592 
WWUS53 KLBF 161920
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
120 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEC029-161930-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-190616T1930Z/
Chase NE-
120 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY...

At 119 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Imperial, 
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported quarter size hail just north 
         of Imperial. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial and Wanamaker State Wildfire Management Area. 

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 41 and 51.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm. Do not drive your 
vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 10174 4067 10169 4067 10146 4048 10139
      4049 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 303DEG 6KT 4055 10163 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BJT/DS

738 
WWUS53 KLBF 161923
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
123 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEC029-161930-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-190616T1930Z/
Chase NE-
123 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY...

At 122 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Imperial,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...At 2:22 PM MDT emergency management reported golf ball size 
         hail 1 mile north of Imperial.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial and Wanamaker State Wildfire Management Area. 

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 41 and 51.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 10174 4067 10169 4067 10146 4048 10139
      4049 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 303DEG 6KT 4055 10163 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

BJT/DS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The latest update is account for the on going showers across
northwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle. Rainfall amounts
are generally a tenth of an inch per hour or less, but the KLNX
radar estimates it could be as high as a quarter of an inch per
hour over eastern Sheridan and far western Cherry Counties. This
morning convection should set up a boundary which additional convection
across SW NEB will develop or intensify later this afternoon.
Several CAMs and the incoming 12Z NAM are highlighting southwest
Nebraska for heavy rainfall and a marginal risk of severe weather.
We increased rainfall amounts in this area which serves our
current flood watch well.

UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A forecast update is in place for the showers which are farther
south than forecast by the HRRR and RAP models.

UPDATE Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The HRRR, RAP and NAM continue to indicate heavy rain tonight (1.5
to 4 inches). A Flood Watch is in place late this afternoon
through Monday morning for the southern Sandhills and parts of
southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

An upper level disturbance across Wyoming moves into nwrn Nebraska
this morning and casts a weak Sfc front across the Sandhills and
Southwest Nebraska this afternoon. The front is expected to become
the focus for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall late this
afternoon and this evening with the best rain chance across the
Sandhills.

The model consensus shows the front and the rain shifting slowing
south and east late tonight and decays Monday morning across ncntl
Nebraska.

If the model consensus is correct, a sfc front will reform across
the Sandhills and swrn Nebraska Monday afternoon. Once again the
front will be the focus for locally heavy rainfall late Monday
afternoon.

The rain forecast today, tonight and Monday uses a blend of the
HRRR, RAP, HREF and the model blend. The NAM was not used as it
places the heavier rain south of the model consensus including the
SREF which keeps the heaviest rain across the cntl Sandhills this
afternoon and tonight. The temperature forecast today through
Monday uses the guidance blend plus bias correction which worked
well Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The model consensus suggests the best rain chances Monday night are
along and south of Interstate 80. A check on moisture advection in
the NAM and other models indicates weak winds around 15-20kts at
h850 and 700mb, and 15-25kts at h500mb. This will support slow
moving ordinary thunderstorms that are outflow dominant. Ambient
precipitable water of 1.25-1.4 inches supports a low or marginal
risk for flooding given the weak moisture advection shown by the
models.

The models continue to show a mostly closed h700mb low forming
across srn Nebraska Tuesday. This supports a continue chance of
showers and thunderstorms across wrn and ncntl Nebraska with the
best chance for heavy rain across eastern Nebraska, east of the
h700mb low.

The model consensus is in good agreement for 500mb winds to increase
to 40-50kts Wednesday through Saturday. The instability however
remains very modest with MLCAPE generally less than 2000J/KG. High
temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 produce very little
instability. Thus, there are opportunities for a few strong or
isolated severe storms late Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are the primary aviation
weather concern across western Nebraska through the forecast
period. The most widespread thunder activity will take place this
evening and tonight. Drops in cigs and visby, along with erratic
gusty winds are expected with any thunderstorm. Persistent lower
cigs, resulting in MVFR, are likely across northern terminals
(including KVTN) Monday morning as a stratus deck builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 938 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The latest CAMs with support from the 12z operational NAM continue
to highlight the potential of a 1-4" of rainfall centered over
southwest Nebraska. We are a bit concerned that this rain may
center slightly northeast over the central Sandhills where the
water table is abnormally high. Given that it is still early and
the latest guidance is rolling in now, we are not going to make
any major changes to the flood watch that was issued this
morning, but are evaluating the need to expand it northeast.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon through
Monday morning for NEZ023-024-035-036-057>059-069-070.

&&

UPDATE...Jacobs
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Snively
HYDROLOGY...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171700-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 /1051 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect western and north central
Nebraska through the evening and nighttime hours. The primary
concerns are very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However,
a few storms may produce large hail and strong winds, primarily
along and west of Highway 83.

A Flood Watch is in effect through early Monday morning for
portions of the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Rainfall
totals may exceed one inch, which could lead to street and lowland
flooding. An already high water table and area road closures would
worsen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

The threat for strong thunderstorms and very heavy rain continues
Monday and Monday night. Hail and wind are the primary severe
threats. Rainfall totals could exceed one inch locally.

Periodic thunderstorm chances continue Tuesday through Saturday.
The threat for organized severe weather during this time is low
though additional locally heavy rain will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across portions of west central
and southwest Nebraska late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS/NJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
132 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ058-069-070-161915-
Chase NE-Hayes NE-Perkins NE-
132 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PERKINS...
NORTHEASTERN CHASE AND WEST CENTRAL HAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
CDT/115 PM MDT/...

At 131 PM CDT/1231 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Imperial, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial, Champion and Wanamaker State Wildfire Management Area.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 41 and 52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 10175 4063 10181 4076 10140 4050 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 249DEG 10KT 4057 10169

Jacobs