Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Through 12Z Tuesday.  The immediate concern in the short term
focuses on the heavy rain potential with severe thunderstorm
chances.  Thunderstorms have developed across far southwest Nebraska
along a weak low level convergence boundary that was left behind
from the morning showers and within an area modest instability.
Sufficient shear has allowed several storms to grow into weak
supercells that have dropped quarter to golf ball sized hail, though
at this point the activity seems to be hitting a lull.  The latest
CAMS show an eventual up growth to a small organized cluster of
storms that is progged to drop heavy rainfall across southwest
Nebraska this evening and overnight with additional weaker activity
dropping southeast across the Sandhills and possibly north central
from the High Plains and Black Hills.  The additional storms are
tied to a weak boundary that the models show to slowly move east
across the CWA overnight before decaying over our eastern zones
before noon Monday.  A surface trough will serve as a focus
for additional storm development on Monday with the potential of
locally heavy rainfall.  We will also look to southwest Nebraska
once again Monday afternoon for the threat of severe weather.  The
latest forecast soundings reveal capes reaching nearly to 2000 j/kg
with more than ample shear of 30-35kts.  Large hail will be the
primary concern before a convective mess takes over and congeals
into one or more convective clusters capable of heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The forecast pattern will be messy to start off the extended with a
broad trough over the southwest and quasi-zonal flow over much
the rest of the CONUS.  Forecast confidence is lower due to the low
amplitude flow aloft, especially concerning some of the smaller
scale features that are progged to impact the Plains.  With that in
mind, several rounds of moderate showers and thunderstorms are
expected as the trough translates east across the Plains Tuesday and
Wednesday.  Moderate to heavy rainfall looks possible, which given
the favorable rain producing pattern in the short term, we could be
looking at additional flooding concerns.  Thereafter, there is some
support that a NW PAC system will reach the coast and dig into the
inter-mountain west.  With this occurring, we expect mid to late
week some drying before southwest flow aloft transports the next
batch of energy across the central High Plains late Friday, strong
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall would be possible Friday and
possibly Saturday.  The pattern favors below normal temperatures
through much of next week, though if the southwest flow returns late
week, we would trend closer to normal before cooling behind the next
trough for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are the primary aviation
weather concern across western Nebraska through the forecast
period. The most widespread thunder activity will take place this
evening and tonight. Drops in cigs and visby, along with erratic
gusty winds are expected with any thunderstorm. Persistent lower
cigs, resulting in MVFR, are likely across northern terminals
(including KVTN) Monday morning as a stratus deck builds in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The latest CAMs with support from the 12z operational NAM continue
to highlight the potential of a 1-3" of rainfall centered over
southwest Nebraska. The initial formation of what appears to be a
convective cluster is on going across our southwest, so will
continue the current watch. We may need to extend our watch
through the day tomorrow and possibly add counties as the models
are highlighting several rounds of convectively driven rains. We
monitor this evening.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ023-024-035-036-
057>059-069-070.

&&

SHORT TERM...Jacobs
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Snively
HYDROLOGY...Jacobs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
322 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019 /222 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread
through the evening and night across western Nebraska. The primary
threats are very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Some
storms may become severe for areas along and west of Highway 83,
with large hail and strong winds being the main concern.

A Flood Watch is in effect for parts of the western Sandhills and
southwest Nebraska. Heavy rainfall will amount to greater than one
inch in areas, which could produce street and lowland flooding.
The high water table and roads currently affected by high water
will worsen.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

The severe weather and flooding threat continues into Monday, but spreads
into north central Nebraska as well. Rainfall totals exceeding one
inch are possible. The greatest potential for large hail and
damaging winds lies across southwest Nebraska.

Additional thunderstorms are possible nearly every day from
Tuesday through Saturday. The severe risk is low for Tuesday. Stay
tuned to later forecasts regarding severe potential for Wednesday
and beyond.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through the evening for areas
along and west of Highway 83. Hail, wind, and flooding reports are
appreciated.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             5 ESE IMPERIAL          40.49N 101.55W
06/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
200 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ056-057-162045-
Deuel-Keith-
200 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN KEITH AND EASTERN
DEUEL COUNTIES...

At 200 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ovid, or near
Julesburg, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barton and Goldeneye State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 87 and
107.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4122 10232 4103 10205 4100 10211 4100 10246
      4101 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 221DEG 9KT 4101 10235

BJT/DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             2 N IMPERIAL            40.55N 101.64W
06/16/2019  E1.75 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. SKYLIGHTS KNOCKED OUT.
            EXTENSIVE GARDEN DAMAGE.

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
308 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             7 NW GRANT              40.92N 101.82W
06/16/2019  M1.00 INCH       PERKINS            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SNIVELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             E ENDERS                40.44N 101.52W
06/16/2019  E1.00 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LOTS OF RAIN WITH STANDING WATER IN
            THE YARD.

&&

THORNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
356 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

NEZ058-069-070-162130-
Chase-Hayes-Perkins-
356 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PERKINS...
CHASE AND NORTHWESTERN HAYES COUNTIES...

At 356 PM CDT/256 PM MDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Madrid to 6
miles southwest of Champion. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial, Madrid, Lamar, Enders, Enders Reservoir State Recreation
Area, Champion, Crete, Chase, Center Dam Campground, Wanamaker State
Wildfire Management Area, Area A Campground and Church Grove
Campground.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 25 and 62.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4035 10205 4070 10205 4087 10152 4078 10125
      4065 10124 4044 10142 4035 10154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 309DEG 13KT 4077 10150 4042 10182

BJT/DS