Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected again
this afternoon, which is the main concern in the short term forecast
period. Two main concerns with these thunderstorms will be the
severe thunderstorm threat and excessive rainfall threat.
Convection is expected to develop in two portions. Southwest
Nebraska back into northeastern Colorado look to be the focus for
initial storm development this afternoon around 3 to 4 pm CDT.
Thunderstorms will then increase in coverage heading into late
afternoon and evening.

Current thinking is the thunderstorms that develop across
southwest Nebraska should be mainly supercell thunderstorms with
the main hazards being hail, damaging winds, heavy rain and even
an isolated tornado could be possible. Supercells are expected to
track northeastward becoming more scattered to widespread, then a
second line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front in
more of a linear setup of thunderstorms and move across the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska, however confidence is low in
thunderstorms developing across southwest Nebraska with the
second area of convection.

The second focus is on the heavy rain potential. As we saw with
storms last night, these storms produced rainfall rates around 1
inch per hour or greater in some locations. Forecaster confidence
is moderate that we will see a similar situation again with
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening. PWAT values
greater than 1 inch with the 12z LBF sounding recording a PWAT of
1.31 inches. There is also the potential for some training of
thunderstorms across the area, mainly across portions of north
central Nebraska as we head into the evening hours. The second
area of convection is also expected to be a heavy rain producer,
which is why a flood watch has been issued for portions of north
central Nebraska. This area received several inches of rainfall
with last nights storms, with the saturated ground from recent
rainfalls, a decision was made to expand the Flood Watch issued
last night farther south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Cooler temperatures on Friday with highs in the upper 60s and
70s. Temperatures will warm this weekend with highs in the 80s.
This is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will
remain warm through early next week. Next chance of thunderstorms
will come next Wed. along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the KLBF terminal: Expect thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
terminal through 06z this evening. The greatest threat is from 00z
to 04z. Visibilities down to 2 miles are possible with the
strongest storms along with wind gusts to 45 KTS and large hail.
Overnight, skies will gradually clear with VFR conds expected
after 08z tonight. For the KVTN terminal: Thunderstorms will
impact the terminal after 01z with visbys down to 3sm and small
hail. The threat for thunderstorms will end after 06z with
overcast skies expected overnight. Ceilings overnight will range
from 3000 to 5000 FT agl before clearing after 15z Thursday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NEZ005>010-
025>027-038-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 /249 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A strong cold front will serve as a focus for strong and severe
thunderstorm development this evening and tonight across western
and north central Nebraska. Storms are expected to first develop
across southwest Nebraska and the panhandle, possibly as early as
3 pm MDT. These discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail,
damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. By mid evening,
storm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
panhandle with strong winds and large hail being the primary
threats.  The storms will congeal into a convective system that
will push east across the entire outlook area. Strong wind, hail
and flooding rainfall will be primary threats late this evening
and overnight.

Flooding concerns will increase late this evening and overnight,
especially across north central Nebraska where heavy rainfall was
observed yesterday. A flash flood watch is in effect for portions
of north central Nebraska through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across southwest
Nebraska and portions of the Panhandle after 2 pm MDT today.
Spotter activation may be needed elsewhere across western and
north central Nebraska after 4 pm CDT. All spotters are encouraged
to report tornadoes, funnel clouds, hail, strong winds, flooding
rainfall and any damage to the National Weather Service in North
Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

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