Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
625 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Another round of severe thunderstorms is expected again
this afternoon, which is the main concern in the short term forecast
period. Two main concerns with these thunderstorms will be the
severe thunderstorm threat and excessive rainfall threat.
Convection is expected to develop in two portions. Southwest
Nebraska back into northeastern Colorado look to be the focus for
initial storm development this afternoon around 3 to 4 pm CDT.
Thunderstorms will then increase in coverage heading into late
afternoon and evening.

Current thinking is the thunderstorms that develop across
southwest Nebraska should be mainly supercell thunderstorms with
the main hazards being hail, damaging winds, heavy rain and even
an isolated tornado could be possible. Supercells are expected to
track northeastward becoming more scattered to widespread, then a
second line of thunderstorms will develop along the cold front in
more of a linear setup of thunderstorms and move across the
Sandhills and north central Nebraska, however confidence is low in
thunderstorms developing across southwest Nebraska with the
second area of convection.

The second focus is on the heavy rain potential. As we saw with
storms last night, these storms produced rainfall rates around 1
inch per hour or greater in some locations. Forecaster confidence
is moderate that we will see a similar situation again with
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening. PWAT values
greater than 1 inch with the 12z LBF sounding recording a PWAT of
1.31 inches. There is also the potential for some training of
thunderstorms across the area, mainly across portions of north
central Nebraska as we head into the evening hours. The second
area of convection is also expected to be a heavy rain producer,
which is why a flood watch has been issued for portions of north
central Nebraska. This area received several inches of rainfall
with last nights storms, with the saturated ground from recent
rainfalls, a decision was made to expand the Flood Watch issued
last night farther south.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Cooler temperatures on Friday with highs in the upper 60s and
70s. Temperatures will warm this weekend with highs in the 80s.
This is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will
remain warm through early next week. Next chance of thunderstorms
will come next Wed. along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

For the KLBF terminal: Expect thunderstorms in the vicinity of the
terminal through 06z this evening. The greatest threat is from 00z
to 04z. Visibilities down to 2 miles are possible with the
strongest storms along with wind gusts to 45 KTS and large hail.
Overnight, skies will gradually clear with VFR conds expected
after 08z tonight. For the KVTN terminal: Thunderstorms will
impact the terminal after 01z with visbys down to 3sm and small
hail. The threat for thunderstorms will end after 06z with
overcast skies expected overnight. Ceilings overnight will range
from 3000 to 5000 FT agl before clearing after 15z Thursday
morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NEZ005>010-
025>027-038-094.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Buttler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-122100-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
349 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 /249 PM MDT Wed Sep 11 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A strong cold front will serve as a focus for strong and severe
thunderstorm development this evening and tonight across western
and north central Nebraska. Storms are expected to first develop
across southwest Nebraska and the panhandle, possibly as early as
3 pm MDT. These discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail,
damaging wind and possibly a tornado or two. By mid evening,
storm coverage is expected to increase, especially across the
panhandle with strong winds and large hail being the primary
threats.  The storms will congeal into a convective system that
will push east across the entire outlook area. Strong wind, hail
and flooding rainfall will be primary threats late this evening
and overnight.

Flooding concerns will increase late this evening and overnight,
especially across north central Nebraska where heavy rainfall was
observed yesterday. A flash flood watch is in effect for portions
of north central Nebraska through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across southwest
Nebraska and portions of the Panhandle after 2 pm MDT today.
Spotter activation may be needed elsewhere across western and
north central Nebraska after 4 pm CDT. All spotters are encouraged
to report tornadoes, funnel clouds, hail, strong winds, flooding
rainfall and any damage to the National Weather Service in North
Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
940 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ005-006-008-009-025-026-120330-
Brown NE-Eastern Cherry NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Thomas NE-Blaine NE-
940 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...WEST
CENTRAL ROCK...BROWN...NORTHERN BLAINE...NORTHEASTERN THOMAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN KEYA PAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 940 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northeast of Brownlee to 6 miles
northwest of Elsmere to Purdum. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ainsworth, Long Pine, Johnstown, Purdum, Elsmere, Wood Lake, Hofeld
Lake, Raven, Bobcat State Wildlife Management Area, Moon Lake, Hawley
Flats, Willow Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Long Lake State
Wildlife Management Area, Keller Park State Recreation Area,
Koshopah, Pine Glen State Wildlife Refuge, Antelope Peak, Jones Lake
and Johnsons Corner.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 194 and 207.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 217 and 252.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4279 10004 4272 9968 4233 9966 4204 9972
      4196 10029 4219 10031 4236 10053 4263 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 226DEG 42KT 4237 10039 4225 10024 4205 10024

Thorne

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
941 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TSTM WND GST     IMPERIAL                40.52N 101.64W
09/11/2019  M70 MPH          CHASE              NE   ASOS

&&

SNIVELY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
944 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ035>037-057-059-120330-
Arthur NE-McPherson NE-Lincoln NE-Keith NE-Logan NE-
944 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARTHUR...
NORTHEASTERN KEITH...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN LOGAN AND
MCPHERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT/930 PM MDT/...

At 944 PM CDT/844 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles north of Hershey to
8 miles north of Keystone. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tryon, Sutherland, Hershey, Paxton, Sarben, Ringgold, Sutherland
Reservoir State Recreation Area, Coker, Flatts, O'Fallons, Nevens,
Calora, Big Bald Hill, Bucktail Lake, Diamond Bar Lake, Bucktail,
Birdwood and Schnick Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 92 between mile markers 174 and 222.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 4 and 34.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 147 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southwestern and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4110 10133 4131 10168 4166 10148 4155 10058
      4109 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 217DEG 24KT 4128 10102 4134 10155

Thorne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
947 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

NEZ005-024>026-036-037-094-120330-
Eastern Cherry NE-Hooker NE-McPherson NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
Blaine NE-Logan NE-
947 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHERRY...
SOUTHEASTERN HOOKER...NORTHERN LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON...
SOUTHWESTERN BLAINE AND THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT/930 PM
MDT/...

At 947 PM CDT/847 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles north of Tryon to
10 miles northwest of Stapleton. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Seneca, Brownlee, Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River,
Brown Lake, Norway, Natwick, Highway 83 crossing the North Loup River
and Shimmons Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 195 and 226.
 Highway 97 between mile markers 35 and 48.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 116 and 175.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for north central and west central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4221 10076 4236 10053 4219 10032 4196 10029
      4179 10026 4153 10046 4162 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 210DEG 36KT 4175 10086 4162 10061

Thorne

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
959 PM CDT WED SEP 11 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 W HAYES CENTER        40.51N 101.15W
09/11/2019  E80 MPH          HAYES              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

THORNE

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