Tornado Warning 12, NWS Jackson, MS

521 
WWUS54 KJAN 232035
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

MSC089-163-232100-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190223T2100Z/
Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
235 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN YAZOO AND NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES...
    
At 234 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Myrleville, or 13 miles southeast of Yazoo City,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Way around 245 PM CST.
  Vaughan around 250 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 8997 3288 8976 3257 9025 3272 9041
      3294 9013
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 228DEG 45KT 3272 9025 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

GRG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
121 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ARKLAMISS...

.UPDATE...
Updated for early afternoon update

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today:

As previously noted, severe weather looks on track today. A
tornado watch has been issued across the area through 8PM for most
of the area, excluding mainly the Pine Belt. With juxtaposition
of strong mid-deep layer shear & efficient vertical effective
helicity, expect widespread isolated thunderstorms, including
some supercell thunderstorms with strong rotating updrafts &
eventually transitioning to a linear line of convection in the
wake. Very strong deep layer shear & fast mid level storm relative
wind will make for fast storm motions. Right now the only
potential limitation/hindrance for efficient vertical rotating
updrafts is some mid-layer weak capping/subsidence & veer-back-
veer (~600-500mb) in regional 15Z & 18Z surface soundings &
guidance. Local CAMs continue to indicate strong updraft
helicities, with some local SREF tornado ingredients bullseye
slightly shifting to the south. This would put some of the best
STP gradient still along & north of the I-20 corridor, still in
line with previous thinking. Some HREF probs have slightly shifted
south as well, potentially towards some local Theta-E convergence
into NE Louisiana & SW Mississippi, leading to some slightly
further SW & initiation & development. Timing looks to be mostly
on track, with any earlier convection more isolated before the
main line & front moving in later into the afternoon. Only small
changes that may be needed in the forecast would be boost highs,
due to better mixing & winds. Wind advisory remains in effect due
to gusty winds & some potential residual flash flooding in the
north, due to very wet antecedent conditions & previous flash
flooding. Updates are out. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

The forecast is on track for significant severe weather across the
forecast area later today. While a weak mid level cap was evident
in morning soundings across the region, this should be overcome
by early afternoon with the expected heating in advance of the
convective line. Strong shear in place as well as 0-1km bulk
shear 30-40 knots and 0-3km bulk shear of 40-50 knots leading to
50+ mph thunderstorm movements and rotating updrafts. With the
strong low level shear and expected heating, deep mixing will
result in 30-40 knots of wind at the surface, especially in the
open lands of the ArkLaMiss Delta and over large lakes./26/

Prior discussion below:

A significant severe weather episode is expected to unfold across
the region today as a strong storm system moves through. A potent
negatively tilted shortwave trough and associated jet energy will
lift northeast from the Southern Plains into the Midwest today into
tonight. Surface cyclogenesis is underway across the Texas Panhandle
with a deepening low progged to lift through Kansas and into north
central Missouri. A robust warm sector continues to surge north this
morning with surface based instability and upper 60s dewpoints
already encroaching on the Hwy 82 corridor. Widespread elevated
shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually shifted north during
the early morning hours and is now focused across far northern
Mississippi and into Tennessee. Scattered warm air advection showers
were also noted within the open warm sector and will continue
through the morning into the afternoon.

The main focus will quickly shift to organized and significant
severe weather from roughly noon to 8pm. Latest suite of hi-res CAM
guidance is in fairly good agreement that upstream convection will
develop by mid morning across central Louisiana and will push
through the CWA through the day into the early evening hours. This
convection will reside within a prefrontal surface trough ahead of a
pseudo dryline as the actual cold front will lag further northwest.
Low-level mass response to the deepening surface cyclone will help
increase low-level wind fields that will foster elongated
cyclonically curved hodographs. 50-55kts of deep layer shear
oriented off the initiating boundary will be more than sufficient
for discrete supercell development as mid-level height falls
overspread the area. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will support
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with greater instability possible if gaps
in cloud cover can be realized. The most favorable parameter space
will reside across the Hwy 82 corridor where a moderate risk area
has been introduced after collaboration with SPC and neighboring
offices. It is across this area where tornadoes, some of which could
be strong and long track, will be most likely. The enhanced risk
area was also expanded south to include all of the I-20 corridor
where discrete supercells will also be possible. Tornadoes, a few of
which could be strong, will also be possible across this area.
Further south, tornadoes will also be possible, however confidence
in both coverage and severity of storms begins to decrease further
south of the better parameter space and height falls. The lowest
confidence remains across the far southeastern portion of the CWA
where guidance has been less impressive with convective potential.
Will continue to advertise this lower threat with a marginal risk.
Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km will support large hail up
to golf ball size, especially with any discrete supercells that are
able to maintain intense updrafts. There are indications that a
broken QLCS could develop behind the initial discrete supercells. If
this scenario pans out damaging winds of 60-70mph will also be
possible.

Finally, flash flooding will remain a concern, especially across the
northern portion of the area that has seen numerous rounds of heavy
rainfall and significant flooding over the last few days. The good
news, though, is that by later this morning into the afternoon the
pattern will become much more progressive with one final round of
fast moving storms before conditions finally clear out. However,
anomalous moisture will remain in place and heavy rainfall rates
from any convection would easily exacerbate ongoing flooding. As
such, will continue the flash flood watch through the rest of the
day. Reduced the HWO/graphics threat from extreme to elevated with
only 1-2" of additional rainfall as the greatest threat for higher
end flooding has shifted into far northern Mississippi.

Last but not least, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s across much of the area and will promote strong mixing
upwards of 900mb. This depth of mixing will help bring down strong
wind gusts of 40-49mph to the surface, especially across the Delta.
Will continue to advertise the ongoing wind advisory and
elevated/limited gradient wind threat in the HWO/graphics.

The actually cold front will drop into the area after midnight with
overnight low temperatures tonight dropping into the low 50s to mid
40s. /TW/

Sunday through the next work week:

Considering the variety of messy weather conditions that have been
persistent in the region for quite some time, the weather will be
trending very nice by Sunday as high pressure dominates in the
wake of the cold front coming through Saturday night. Look for
mostly clear (to, at worst, partly cloudy) conditions from Sunday
through late Monday with temperatures near seasonal norms. There
is potential for some frost Sunday night, but at this point the
prospect of more than very isolated locations getting down to the
freezing mark is low.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday night as a low amplitude
disturbance in fast zonal flow aloft interacts with a baroclinic
zone near (or south) of the coast. Some light rain showers getting
up to the Highway 84 corridor are not out of the question late in
the night.

Thereafter, model consensus through the rest of the work week is
not terribly good. Main issue is that multiple low-amplitude short
waves are expected to progress through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, occasionally interacting with a loose baroclinic zone
remaining mostly near the coast. The European model has been
most consistent with keeping most areas mainly dry through this
period. However, the GFS and GEFS have been showing more
amplification with a few of these pieces of energy and, thus,
greater chances for precipitation. Negotiated this uncertainty
by generally expressing slight chances of rain Tuesday through
Friday in the official forecast each day, with a little better
overall chance of measurable precipitation in southern zones.
Definitely expecting some refinement of the forecast for these
periods coming in the next day or two as models work out some of
the differences in the rather unsettled pattern aloft. But, all in
all, the forecast is not looking too bad considering the threat
for hazardous weather in the long term is quite low. Temperatures
should likely trend not too far from average with seasonably
chilly air having a hard time working south into the region. In
fact, at times where more sun than clouds dominate then
temperatures on some days could end up being pleasantly mild. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR ceilings will continue through much of the afternoon,
although VFR ceilings may periodically occur. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will occur across the area this afternoon. A squall
line of thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front, will sweep across
the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening with
the cold front lagging shortly behind. Winds ahead of the front
will be strong from the south with sustained around 20 knots and
gusts from 30 to 40 knots. Winds will switch to the west and
northwest behind the front later tonight at 10 to 20 knots with
gusts from 20 to 30 knots./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       47  60  36  63 /  65   2   2   2
Meridian      50  63  36  63 /  84   4   2   1
Vicksburg     45  59  37  62 /  15   2   2   1
Hattiesburg   53  66  38  65 /  53   3   1   2
Natchez       46  60  38  63 /  23   2   2   3
Greenville    43  56  35  58 /   4   2   1   1
Greenwood     44  57  34  60 /  37   2   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>037-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for LAZ007>009-015.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ008-009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for ARZ074-075.

     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ARZ075.

&&

DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ARZ074-LAZ007-241130-
Ashley-Morehouse-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Midday through early Afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Midday through early afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms
producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong tornadoes are
possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, ongoing flooding will be exacerbated by an additional one
to two inches of rainfall. Areas of flash flooding are likely and
many roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ034-035-041-241130-
Chicot-West Carroll-East Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Sharkey-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Midday through mid afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Midday through mid afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms
producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong tornadoes are
possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, ongoing flooding will be exacerbated by an additional one
to two inches of rainfall. Areas of flash flooding are likely and
many roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, a few downed power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts over
40 mph. The combination of the wind and saturated soils will also
likely result in some downed trees. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ018-019-025>028-036-241130-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Holmes-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Midday through mid afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Midday through mid afternoon, significant severe thunderstorms
and tornadoes are likely with strong, long-track tornadoes
possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up
to 70 mph and large hail up to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, ongoing flooding will be exacerbated by an additional one
to two inches of rainfall. Areas of flash flooding are likely and
many roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, a few downed power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts over
40 mph. The combination of the wind and saturated soils will also
likely result in some downed trees. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ032-241130-
Choctaw-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, significant severe
thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong, long- track
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Late afternoon through early evening, ongoing flooding will be
exacerbated by an additional one to two inches of rainfall. Areas
of flash flooding are likely and many roads could be flooded or
closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late today
through this evening.

MSZ029-241130-
Webster-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...This afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

This afternoon, significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes
are likely with strong, long-track tornadoes possible. Some
thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and
large hail up to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon, ongoing flooding will be exacerbated by an
additional one to two inches of rainfall. Areas of flash flooding
are likely and many roads could be flooded or closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ030-031-033-241130-
Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, significant severe
thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong, long- track
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to at least golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Late afternoon through early evening, ongoing flooding will be
exacerbated by an additional one to two inches of rainfall. Areas
of flash flooding are likely and many roads could be flooded or
closed.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late today
through this evening.

LAZ015-016-MSZ037-040-042>044-241130-
Richland-Madison LA-Attala-Issaquena-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Midday through the afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Midday through the afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Midday through the afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms
producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong tornadoes are
possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Midday through the afternoon, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, a few downed power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts over
40 mph. The combination of the wind and saturated soils will also
likely result in some downed trees. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ038-039-045-046-051-052-241130-
Winston-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, scattered severe
thunderstorms producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong
tornadoes are possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to
golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Late afternoon through early evening, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late
today through this evening.

LAZ023-025-MSZ047>049-241130-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Midday through the afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Midday through the afternoon, scattered severe thunderstorms
producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong tornadoes are
possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, a few downed power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts over
40 mph. The combination of the wind and saturated soils will also
likely result in some downed trees. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ050-241130-
Scott-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, scattered severe
thunderstorms producing tornadoes are likely. Some strong
tornadoes are possible. In addition, some thunderstorms may
produce damaging winds up from 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to
golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Late afternoon through early evening, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late
today through this evening.

LAZ024-026-MSZ053-059-060-241130-
Catahoula-Concordia-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Midday through mid afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Midday through mid afternoon, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes
are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds of
60 to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, a few downed power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts over
40 mph. The combination of the wind and saturated soils will also
likely result in some downed trees. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ054-055-061>064-241130-
Copiah-Simpson-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

This afternoon, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph
and hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ056>058-065-066-241130-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Covington-Jones-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds of 60 to 70 mph and hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late
today through this evening.

MSZ072>074-241130-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
520 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Late afternoon through early evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Late afternoon through early evening, isolated severe
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region late
today through this evening.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
159 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

LAZ016-025-MSZ047-232030-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Warren MS-
159 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN TENSAS...EASTERN
MADISON PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

At 159 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Somerset, or 20 miles south of Tallulah, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Somerset around 205 PM CST.
  Afton around 215 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mound and Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and southwestern and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3251 9103 3244 9096 3243 9096 3221 9074
      3221 9075 3219 9075 3219 9078 3217 9079
      3211 9101 3211 9103 3210 9104 3207 9112
      3208 9115 3206 9116 3201 9134 3216 9145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 233DEG 39KT 3213 9132

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
206 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

LAZ007-008-015-232030-
Richland LA-Morehouse LA-West Carroll LA-
206 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MOREHOUSE...NORTH
CENTRAL RICHLAND AND CENTRAL WEST CARROLL PARISHES UNTIL 230 PM
CST...

At 206 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Bastrop, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Goodwill around 225 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Forest, Bonita,
Collinston, Mer Rouge, Pioneer and Oak Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southeastern
Arkansas...and northeastern Louisiana.

LAT...LON 3276 9188 3301 9170 3285 9134 3282 9135
      3282 9134 3278 9134 3243 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 233DEG 38KT 3269 9177

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
208 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

MSZ042-043-047-048-232045-
Warren MS-Hinds MS-Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
208 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN...
NORTHWESTERN HINDS...SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CST...

At 208 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Youngton, or 13 miles east of Redwood, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownsville around 215 PM CST.
  Flora around 230 PM CST.
  Little Yazoo around 235 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Bentonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for central and
west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3241 9057 3255 9067 3278 9041 3250 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 233DEG 38KT 3250 9057

DB