Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
551 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

...FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BIG CONCERNS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR and MVFR flight categories are ongoing this evening.
Lowered ceilings and vis are occurring in rainfall across the
area. Expect poor flying conditions to occur through the night and
into the day tomorrow as additional rainfall and storms will move
through. Fog may also be an issue as well and will need to
monitored in future amendments and TAF issuances. South winds will
be rather gusty tomorrow even outside of storms with sustained
speeds around 10-20kts and gusts up to 40kts. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Saturday...

More thunderstorms have developed and are moving up over the
southwestern portions of the area this afternoon. With Lapse rates
of around 6.0 to 6.5 C/km and decent shear, some of these storms
could become strong to severe. A marginal risk is in effect
generally along and west of the I-55 corridor. These storms will
continue to move north into the evening hours, and may produce
more heavy rainfall for already soaked areas along the Highway 82
corridor. These storms may produce another one to three inches
before moving north of the area overnight. We should get a break
from the heavy rainfall during the very early morning hours
through late morning, but showers will continue to be possible
through this period.

A strong disturbance aloft will approach the area from the west
Saturday morning and sweep across the area through Saturday evening.
Anticipate thunderstorms to strengthen along a pre-frontal trough by
late morning in Northeast Louisiana and approach the Mississippi
River around lunchtime. With strong shear and good instability,
tornadoes some possibly strong will be possible across areas
generally north of the I-20 corridor. An enhanced risk is in effect
for these areas. Further to the south in the slight risk area, the
forcing will be weaker, but tornadoes will be also be possible. With
lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 C/KM, large hail up to the size of golf balls
will be possible across much of the area. Further to the south
across the Pine Belt area, the severe potential will be limited due
to strong capping. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out though.

Another issue on Saturday will be strong winds, due to a very tight
surface pressure gradient out ahead and just behind the pre-frontal
trough. GustS from 40-49 mph are likely for areas generally along
and North of the Natches Trace Corridor. A Wind advisory has been
issued for these areas. Temperatures will be very warm Saturday with
highs in the low 80s across much of the area. /15/

Saturday night through next Friday...

A diminishing threat for severe weather can be expected during the
early evening for eastern MS as a cold front ushers in drier and
more seasonable air overnight for the remainder of the weekend and
into Monday. There is a still a good deal of uncertainty after
Monday and going through the rest of next work week because of
poor model consensus. That said, the more reliable (at that time
range) European model continues to be largely dry through most of
the long range and chances of rain were kept relatively tame.
Expect temperatures to remain generally near seasonal values in
this time frame, although there will be opportunity for persistent
colder air to our northwest to spill in before the official
forecast period is over. /BB/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  82  48  61 /  37  84  59   3
Meridian      67  80  50  65 /  36  75  70   5
Vicksburg     65  82  46  60 /  60  95  21   2
Hattiesburg   68  83  53  67 /  31  66  58   3
Natchez       68  81  47  62 /  37  90  22   2
Greenville    54  77  44  57 /  83  95  12   2
Greenwood     59  81  45  59 /  68  96  45   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night
     for MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-040>044-047>049-053-059-060.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for LAZ007>009-015.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night
     for LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for ARZ074-075.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to midnight CST Saturday night
     for ARZ075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

ARZ074-MSZ029-232245-
Ashley-Webster-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING THREAT...Significant
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, widespread flash flooding is
likely and significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be
flooded or closed and some structural flooding and water rescues
are likely. Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025>028-034-232245-
Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Washington-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Extreme
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, widespread and significant
flooding is likely and many roads could be flooded, closed, or
washed out. Structural flooding and water rescues are expected.
Moderate to major river flooding will be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

MSZ032-033-232245-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, areas of flash flooding likely
and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of which could
be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ031-232245-
Lowndes-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...This afternoon
through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, areas of flash flooding likely
and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph and
and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ030-232245-
Clay-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, widespread flash flooding is
likely and significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be
flooded or closed and some structural flooding and water rescues
are likely. Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of which could
be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

LAZ007-232245-
Morehouse-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, areas of flash flooding likely
and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday.

LAZ008-009-MSZ037-040-041-232245-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, areas of flash flooding likely
and some roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

LAZ015-MSZ042-232245-
Richland-Yazoo-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday.

MSZ035-036-232245-
Humphreys-Holmes-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, widespread flash flooding is
likely and significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be
flooded or closed and some structural flooding and water rescues
are likely. Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of
which could be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

MSZ044-232245-
Leake-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph and
and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ039-045-046-050>052-055>058-061>065-232245-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph and
and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon and Saturday through Saturday night.

MSZ038-232245-
Winston-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, some of which could
be strong. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ043-047>049-053-059-232245-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Madison MS-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Jefferson-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph
and and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

MSZ060-232245-
Adams-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Saturday

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph
and and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, with the very wet conditions, trees and powerlines may
be downed,  due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday.

MSZ054-232245-
Copiah-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Mainly saturday, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 to 70 mph
and and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Saturday night.

MSZ066-232245-
Jones-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

This afternoon through saturday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Saturday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

MSZ072>074-232245-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
443 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Saturday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Saturday

Saturday, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Saturday, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts up to 39 mph. High
profile vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
through Saturday night.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
132 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW HOLCOMB           33.75N 90.00W
02/22/2019                   GRENADA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CONTINUED ON-GOING FLOODING ACROSS THE
            COUNTY, NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED, MANY CLOSED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S JENNIE              33.24N 91.29W
02/22/2019                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUGHLY 80% OF COUNTY ROADS ARE FLOODED TO
            SOME EXTEND WITH SOME CLOSED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE PORTLAND          33.23N 91.49W
02/22/2019                   ASHLEY             AR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ALL LANES OF HWY 160 IS CLOSED E OF PORTLAND
            DUE TO FLOODING OF HWY 160.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW CALEDONIA          33.70N 88.34W
02/22/2019                   LOWNDES            MS   PUBLIC

            A VEHICLE WAS STUCK WITH PEOPLE INSIDE NEAR
            LAWRENCE BRIDGE RD WHICH RESULTED IN A WATER
            RESCUE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
431 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

MSZ062-222315-
Lincoln MS-
431 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
UNTIL 515 PM CST...

At 430 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Summit, or near Mccomb, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bogue Chitto around 445 PM CST.
  Enterprise and Ruth around 455 PM CST.
  East Lincoln around 510 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9055 3163 9025 3135 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 230DEG 19KT 3134 9047

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
546 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

MSZ072-230030-
Marion MS-
546 PM CST FRI FEB 22 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MARION COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
CST...

At 545 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Dexter, or near Kokomo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kokomo around 555 PM CST.
  Pickwick around 600 PM CST.
  Columbia around 610 PM CST.
  Morgantown around 615 PM CST.
  Goss around 620 PM CST.
  Bunker Hill and Improve around 630 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3109 8992 3109 8993 3113 8994 3113 9001
      3117 9001 3118 9003 3124 9003 3139 8994
      3139 8982 3144 8982 3143 8965 3120 8965
      3107 8988 3107 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 219DEG 23KT 3112 8998

19