Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
414 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...

.DISCUSSION...

Late afternoon through Monday:

Latest imagery/obs reveal an impressive warm sector extending
from NE LA into central/southern MS characterized by sfc temps in
the lower 80s and dewpoints around 70 with ML CAPE approaching
3000 j/kg. Shear profiles are not great, but given such strong
instability, they are more than adequate to support weather. The
cold pool described this morning managed to surge farther south
into north central MS where it initiated a few severe storms, but
this activity has waned some and now the bulk of thunderstorm
activity is focused just outside over the forecast area.

Most attention is now focused on a large approaching MCS moving from
SE TX into western/central LA late this afternoon. High res guidance
has been remarkably consistent in showing this system move into
western portions of the ArkLaMiss region as we go into the early
evening hours. Given the amount of instability and increasing low
level shear associated with the system, the enhanced risk for severe
weather remains. Boundary interactions between the MCV and cold pool
boundary could yield locally greater vorticity/SREH and tornado
potential, but the primary threats are still for damaging straight-
line winds and large hail.

In addition, flash flooding will be an increasing concern as strong
lift and precipitable water air approaching 2 inches per recent
analyses support intense rainfall rates over areas that have
recently received heavy rainfall. So have issued a flash flood watch
for the Delta region...an area that is especially prone to flooding
for tonight. As the upper trough moves directly over the forecast
area Monday, additional storms are likely to develop, and while
coverage will not be as great, any heavy rain on top of what will
likely fall through tonight will quickly aggravate any existing
flood issues. So have the flash flood watch going through tomorrow.
Speaking of tomorrow, there is an additional marginal severe weather
risk continuing per SPC, and this will be focused on in more detail
after we get through the greater near term hazardous weather risks.
/EC/

Monday night through end of the week:

The upper low center helping drive all the inclement conditions
through the short term will be moving through the heart of the
Lower MS Valley Monday night, although most of the precipitation-
producing and severe weather ingredients associated with the
system will be exiting to our east (ahead of the low center). That
said, there still will be chances for showers and few embedded
thunderstorms in especially central and eastern zones during the
evening hours before all precipitation exits into AL late in the
night and through mid Tuesday morning. At this point we expect the
risk of hazardous weather to be over with in the region by early
in the evening Monday.

We only expect a very weak push of cool air into the region in the
wake of this system, so temperatures will remain above normal
Tuesday and lasting through Thursday with highs mainly in the 80
to 85 range and lows generally between 55 to 60 degrees.

We still anticipate a very vigorous upper level disturbance to
plow into through the central Plains and toward the Midwest on
Thursday, dragging the tail end of cold front across our region
Thursday night into Friday. Wind shear across our area will be
sufficient for organized convection but, fortunately, atmospheric
forcing will be focused well north of here with moisture return in
advance of the cold front rather pathetic (by April standards). As
such, we are not anticipating severe weather with this system in
the forecast area, although there will be the potential for some
mainly anifrontal showers and a few embedded storms (more-so in
northern zones).

But this likely uneventful frontal passage will probably be
followed by another period of active weather by next weekend as
another big piece of energy comes out of the western CONUS trough,
and this time deeper than the preceding short wave. The
baroclinic zone left in the wake of the Friday's front will serve
as focus for moisture, lift, and instability increases over the
weekend and showers and storms will result. Hazardous weather,
including flooding and severe weather threats, certainly cannot be
ruled out with this setup. However, this potential event is way
down the road and it will take a few more days to build enough
confidence on specific timing and threat level to consider
including in the HWO and related graphics. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:

A very moist and unstable airmass will lead to the development of
widespread TSRA/+TSRA moving in from west to east later this
afternoon and continuing through much of tonight. Southerly flow
will promote IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight into Monday morning with
occasional south-southeast surface wind gusts to around 20kt. As
we go through Monday, expect the ceilings to mix upward/improve,
but coverage of SHRA/TSRA should increase with daytime heating.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  78  59  79 /  85  74  52  11
Meridian      65  80  59  80 /  54  65  52  24
Vicksburg     65  75  58  80 /  94  71  44   4
Hattiesburg   66  80  59  80 /  55  54  38  18
Natchez       64  75  58  80 /  96  64  38   4
Greenville    64  75  58  79 /  99  83  33   4
Greenwood     63  77  59  80 /  92  79  47   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>042-047.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ARZ074-075.

&&

EC/BB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-082145-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible and some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, areas of flash
flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or closed due to
locally heavy rain amounts up to 5 inches. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible. Some isolated flooding issues may persist into
Monday, although the heavy rain potential will be primarily
focused through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

MSZ026>033-036>038-042>044-048-053-054-059-061-082145-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Hinds-Claiborne-
Copiah-Jefferson-Franklin MS-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Monday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are possible and some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds
to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado
cannot be ruled out.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon through monday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible. Some isolated flooding issues may persist
into Monday, although the heavy rain potential will be primarily
focused through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ040-041-047-082145-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are likely and some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up
to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size. One or two
tornadoes are possible, as well.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, areas of flash
flooding likely and some roads could be flooded or closed due to
locally heavy rain amounts up to 5 inches. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible. Some isolated flooding issues may persist
into Monday, although the heavy rain potential will be primarily
focused through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

MSZ039-045-046-049>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-082145-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are possible and some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at
least to the size of quarters. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

LAZ026-MSZ060-082145-
Concordia-Adams-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Monday

The rest of this afternoon through tonight, severe thunderstorms
are likely and some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up
to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size. One or two
tornadoes are possible, as well.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

This afternoon through monday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible. Some isolated flooding issues may persist
into Monday, although the heavy rain potential will be primarily
focused through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

MSZ062-082145-
Lincoln-
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...This afternoon through Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

This afternoon through monday, localized flash flooding is
possible, particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river
flooding is also possible. Some isolated flooding issues may persist
into Monday, although the heavy rain potential will be primarily
focused through tonight.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are possible and some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at
least to the size of quarters. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will still be possible during the
day Monday, with the main risks being winds up to the 60 mph and
hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through Monday.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
608 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

MSZ042-080000-
Yazoo MS-
608 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Yazoo City, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Yazoo City around 630 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Eden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3301 9034 3300 9032 3279 9029 3274 9043
      3292 9051 3292 9045 3301 9045 3301 9036
      3302 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 166DEG 14KT 3280 9038

TW