River Flood Warning 72, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
628 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
A line of showers and thunderstorms extends over the eastern
portions of the area this afternoon. The storms will begin to
affect GTR in the next couple of hours as they continue to trek
northeast. More isolated storms are occurring over the delta.
Isolated to scattered storms will continue to be possible across
the delta this evening affecting GLH, but expect the remaining
sites to be clear of storms after the current activity moves to
the east of the area. Expect a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions for much
of the remainder of the period, with more thunderstorm activity
possible by the end of the period. /15/

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday: Mainly isolated intense convection over
portions of east central LA at the moment along surface warm
front. Presently, expect these storms to continue moving east
along the boundary with more isolated convection developing along
the boundary as it continues to lift northward over the next few
hours. More widespread convection will develop over the ArkLaMiss
Delta later into this evening as surface low over the ArkLaTex
moves into eastern AR. While shear away from the boundary is not
overly impressive, steep mid level lapse rates should compensate
sufficiently for robust updrafts and a severe threat continuing
through midnight with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats. Loss of heating and diminishing wind fields later
tonight will allow for convection to wind down and low clouds to
fill back in with the cooling boundary layer.

The forecast area looks to stay firmly in the warm sector Sunday
with no appreciable approaching features for much of the day. Thus,
only expecting isolated convection in locations where the cap is
weakest. Cap looks to diminish by late afternoon as the surface low
over southeast TX begins to lift out to the northeast. An uptick in
convective coverage and intensity should occur from the southwest by
late afternoon./26/

Sunday night through Monday night: A couple of small
perturbations aloft will periodically enhance storm coverage
during the evening before the main upper trough begins to approach
late Sunday night into early Monday. Increasing low level flow
and deep layer shear will support organized storms and a slight
risk for severe weather, so will continue to mention this in the
HWO/graphics. Additional storms may develop with heating Monday in
direct association with the upper trough. Timing details in the
Sunday night through Monday period are of low confidence. Look for
showers to end Monday night as the trough moves off to east.

Tuesday through Saturday: A shortwave ridge will bring generally
dry and warm weather to the ArkLaMiss region during the mid to
late week, but will need to monitor convective potential with a
trough passage for Thursday into Friday. At this time it looks
like the trough will pass before for a significant storm/severe
weather threat can develop. High pressure will briefly move in
behind the trough as we go into the weekend, but another
significant system may be quick to follow. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  80  65  77 /  35  31  81  69
Meridian      65  82  65  78 /  44  24  70  73
Vicksburg     67  80  64  77 /  45  58  88  69
Hattiesburg   66  80  66  79 /  15  30  72  72
Natchez       67  80  65  75 /  18  69  84  65
Greenville    66  78  63  75 /  71  65  90  71
Greenwood     66  81  63  76 /  74  37  88  78

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-072200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

Severe storms are expected to affect the outlook area through the
evening. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to golf ball size
will be the primary concerns, with some potential for a couple of
tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Additional storms with heavy rainfall will be likely late Sunday
through Sunday night. A few severe storms and localized flash
flooding will be possible. The primary severe weather concerns
will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to quarter size, and
possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>050-053-072200-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-
Claiborne-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

The threat for severe storms will continue through the evening.
Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary concerns, with
some potential for a couple of tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Additional storms with heavy rainfall will be likely late Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. A few severe storms and localized
flash flooding will be possible. The primary severe weather
concerns will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to quarter
size, and possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ051-052-054>066-072>074-072200-
Catahoula-Concordia-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
454 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

A few severe storms will be possible this evening. The primary
concerns will be for wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
quarter size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Storms with heavy rainfall will be possible Sunday night. A few
severe storms and localized flash flooding will be possible. The
primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind gusts to 60
mph, hail to quarter size, and possibly a few tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Sunday night.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W SILOAM              33.64N 88.78W
04/06/2019                   CLAY               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWN IN CENTRAL CLAY
            COUNTY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST POINT              33.61N 88.65W
04/06/2019                   CLAY               MS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN WEST
            POINT.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
729 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

ARZ074-LAZ007-070100-
Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-
729 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ASHLEY COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES UNTIL 800
PM CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Beekman, or 7 miles north of Bastrop, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Beekman around 735 PM CDT.
  Galion around 745 PM CDT.
  Jones around 755 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Bonita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 9205 3280 9206 3301 9206 3308 9164
      3279 9164 3276 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 259DEG 34KT 3288 9195

JM