Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Watches in 2019

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, MS

February 20, 201920 counties in Mississippi; 4 parishes in Louisiana; Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood watch at Feb 20, 2019, 4:52 PM CST for 20 counties in Mississippi; 4 parishes in Louisiana; Ashley County, Chicot County, Arkansas. It took effect at Feb 21, 2019, 12:00 PM CST. It was in force for 55 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 20, 2019, 4:52 PM CST (22:52 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 21, 2019, 12:00 PM CST
Expired
Feb 23, 2019, 7:18 PM CST
In force
55 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Flood severity
None
All 26 counties

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, East Carroll Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2019-02-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1094 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2019-02-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 409 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1094 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
521 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
409 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
435 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.2
Supercell composite
12.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Feb 20, 4:34 PM CST, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 20, 4:34 PM CST, 18 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 20, 5:06 AM CST, 11 hours 46 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-034-040-211115-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Washington-Issaquena-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, and west
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain today will
result in possible flash flooding, particularly in low lying and
urban areas. Minor to moderate river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
through Saturday, especially for locations in northern
Mississippi, far southeast Arkansas, and far northeast Louisiana.
Localized flash flooding will be possible through this time, and
minor to moderate river flooding will likely continue.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Saturday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

MSZ019-025>030-035-036-041-211115-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Humphreys-Holmes-Sharkey-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain today will likely
result in areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor to moderate river flooding is also likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
through Saturday, especially for locations in northern
Mississippi, far southeast Arkansas, and far northeast Louisiana.
Localized flash flooding will be possible through this time, and
minor to moderate river flooding will likely continue.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Saturday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Friday and
Saturday.

MSZ031>033-037>039-211115-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through Noon today.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail,
but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain today will likely
result in areas of flash flooding. Some roads could be flooded or
closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor to moderate river flooding is also likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
through Saturday, especially for locations in northern
Mississippi, far southeast Arkansas, and far northeast Louisiana.
Localized flash flooding will be possible through this time, and
minor to moderate river flooding will likely continue.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Saturday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Saturday.

MSZ042>048-053-059>061-211115-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Claiborne-
Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through Noon today.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail,
but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain today will
result in possible flash flooding, particularly in low lying and
urban areas. Minor to moderate river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
through Saturday, especially for locations in northern
Mississippi, far southeast Arkansas, and far northeast Louisiana.
Localized flash flooding will be possible through this time, and
minor to moderate river flooding will likely continue.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Saturday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today,
Friday and Saturday.

MSZ049>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-211115-
Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
506 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this afternoon.
Some thunderstorms could produce tornadoes, damaging wind gusts
of 60 to 70 mph, and hail up to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain today will
result in possible flash flooding, particularly in low lying and
urban areas. Minor to moderate river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
through Saturday, especially for locations in northern
Mississippi, far southeast Arkansas, and far northeast Louisiana.
Localized flash flooding will be possible through this time, and
minor to moderate river flooding will likely continue.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during
the day on Saturday, especially across northeast Louisiana,
southeast Arkansas, and areas in western and central Mississippi
along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor. Hail up to the size
of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the
primary hazards.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday, especially
across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and areas in
Mississippi north of Highway 84. This potential weather event is
still several days away, so be sure to stay tuned for updates to
the forecast.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today,
Friday and Saturday.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 20, 2:38 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 20, 2:55 PM CST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 20, 3:47 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 20, 4:34 PM CST, 18 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 20, 4:35 PM CST, 17 minutes before
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Local storm report, Feb 20, 4:38 PM CST, 14 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 19, 7:34 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANCarroll, Leflore23 days
Feb 19, 8:49 PM CSTAreal Flood WarningJANClay6 hr
Feb 19, 10:29 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANBolivar46 min
Feb 20, 12:44 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANBolivar, Issaquena, Washington2 hr
Feb 20, 1:41 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANLeflore, Sunflower2 hr
Feb 20, 4:20 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANHolmes25 min
Feb 20, 6:42 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCarroll, Grenada, Holmes, Montgomery, Webster3 hr
Feb 20, 7:06 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSimpson24 min
Feb 20, 7:26 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSimpson34 min
Feb 20, 7:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANRankin, Simpson, Smith38 min
Feb 20, 8:11 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANSimpson3 hr
Feb 20, 8:11 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANScott, Smith34 min
Feb 20, 8:38 AM CSTTornado WarningJANNewton, Scott24 min
Feb 20, 8:59 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSimpson, Smith31 min
Feb 20, 9:01 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANNewton, Rankin, Scott, Smith4 hr
Feb 20, 9:01 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLawrence29 min
Feb 20, 9:12 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson, Smith4 hr
Feb 20, 9:20 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANAttala, Carroll, Choctaw, Clay, Grenada, Montgomery and 2 more4 hr
Feb 20, 9:27 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANScott, Smith21 min
Feb 20, 9:38 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANKemper, Leake, Neshoba, Noxubee, Winston4 hr
Feb 20, 10:22 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANClarke, Jasper, Kemper, Lauderdale, Newton4 hr
Feb 20, 10:49 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSharkey161 days
Feb 20, 11:18 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANJones27 min
Feb 20, 11:38 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANClarke37 min
Feb 20, 12:00 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion3 hr
Feb 20, 12:08 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLamar37 min
Feb 20, 5:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANClarke3 days
Feb 19, 10:11 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMorehouse49 min
Feb 19, 10:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMorehouse26 min
Feb 19, 11:04 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMorehouse56 min
Feb 20, 5:21 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANWest Carroll24 min
Feb 19, 8:57 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAshley33 min
Feb 19, 9:27 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAshley18 min
Feb 19, 9:48 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANChicot27 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Mississippi, 2019Flash Flood Watches in Louisiana, 2019Flash Flood Watches in Arkansas, 2019Every flash flood watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.