Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
322 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Breezy conditions with the slight risk for severe thunderstorms
continue to be the weather story through today. The primary
hazard with any severe storm is damaging wind gusts. A cold front
will pass through behind these storms, sending overnight lows
into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. It will be notably cooler on
Monday with highs shy of 60 degrees. Looking ahead, the next
opportunity for rain is Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

First round of convection has moved over the area and is starting
to move off to the east with time. While there has been a few
embedded enhanced echos the main impacts have been periods of
heavy rain and a few wind gusts into the 40mph range. Weak updraft
strength with this first round have been easily sheared apart.

Clearing line of clouds is quickly encroaching into the far
western counties. This should result in a quick jump in temps of
3-5 degrees. Looking across eastern IL, dewpoints have remained
in the mid-60s as temperatures have risen into the mid-70s.
Further south and west into southern IL, lower dewpoints in the
upper 50s have been able to mix to the surface. Ongoing convection
across southeastern IL developed on the intersection of these
dewpoints. This development also correlate with the left exit
region of a jet rounding the base of the upper trough. Trajectory
of this jet region would bring it across our western/central zones
over the next few hours. This, coupled with any destabilization
from the clearing line, will help to support renewed/reinvigorate
convection. Radar VAD profiles across IL show mostly unidirectional
flow within this area of developing/ongoing convection. Will have
to watch influence of the clearing line as the KIWX VAD profile
does show some veering in the lowest 1000m. If this veering
persists despite mixing, then a non-zero chance for a tornado
would exist. Greater confidence is with a quick jump in
temperatures, low level mixing, and VAD winds quickly becoming
unidirectional. Primary hazard with storms remains damaging wind.
As mentioned above, strongly sheared storms are unlikely to result
in much of a large hail risk.

Front starts to push into the area late this afternoon/early
evening. There is a window where the lifting jet exit region and
the front overlap to strengthen convection. The best area for this
overlapping would be along and north of I-80. This is well
reflected in the HRRR with a progressive line of convection. This
line moves across the northern zones before exiting around 03Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Focus of the forecast is on the near term, but the general theme for
the remainder of the forecast remains unchanged. Dry and cool
conditions Monday into Tuesday, next chance for precipitation
Tuesday night/Wednesday, warmer Thurs and Friday. Location of the
building sub-tropical high over the southeastern US will dictate
if Thurs/Fri have chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Pre-frontal rain showers with ceilings near/at MVFR criteria will
impact the terminals to start off the TAF period. Gusty winds to
about 30 knots remain in play as the low-level jet continues to
near the area. The best chance for thunderstorms is outlined in
the TEMPO groups; through FWA remains more likely to have a
thunderstorm compared to SBN. After thunderstorms along the cold
front pass through, VFR conditions can be expected until a
secondary cold front drops south near 12z, brining MVFR ceilings
back to the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Brown

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
431 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-202045-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-
431 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019 /331 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms will spread from west to east this afternoon and into
the late evening hours. These storms are expected to become severe
and be capable of producing damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall. The additional rainfall may cause some flooding of urban
areas and rises on creeks, streams and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday; however, the
storms are not expected to become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-202045-
Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
431 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Another round of thunderstorms will spread from west to east this
afternoon and into the late evening hours. These storms could become
strong to severe and be capable of producing damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall. The additional rainfall may cause some
flooding of urban areas and rises on creeks, streams and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday; however, the
storms are not expected to become severe.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-202045-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
431 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 194 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening which can
produce very strong winds.

In addition, a small craft advisory is in effect through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A small craft advisory is in effect through Monday morning.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
617 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             1 S DUNLAP              41.62N 85.92W
05/19/2019  E1.00 INCH       ELKHART            IN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S GOBLESVILLE         40.95N 85.52W
05/19/2019                   HUNTINGTON         IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ROANOKE             40.96N 85.33W
05/19/2019                   ALLEN              IN   PUBLIC

            1 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF.
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOFS. MPING REPORT.

&&

MSL