Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
322 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Breezy conditions with the slight risk for severe thunderstorms
continue to be the weather story through today. The primary
hazard with any severe storm is damaging wind gusts. A cold front
will pass through behind these storms, sending overnight lows
into the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. It will be notably cooler on
Monday with highs shy of 60 degrees. Looking ahead, the next
opportunity for rain is Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

First round of convection has moved over the area and is starting
to move off to the east with time. While there has been a few
embedded enhanced echos the main impacts have been periods of
heavy rain and a few wind gusts into the 40mph range. Weak updraft
strength with this first round have been easily sheared apart.

Clearing line of clouds is quickly encroaching into the far
western counties. This should result in a quick jump in temps of
3-5 degrees. Looking across eastern IL, dewpoints have remained
in the mid-60s as temperatures have risen into the mid-70s.
Further south and west into southern IL, lower dewpoints in the
upper 50s have been able to mix to the surface. Ongoing convection
across southeastern IL developed on the intersection of these
dewpoints. This development also correlate with the left exit
region of a jet rounding the base of the upper trough. Trajectory
of this jet region would bring it across our western/central zones
over the next few hours. This, coupled with any destabilization
from the clearing line, will help to support renewed/reinvigorate
convection. Radar VAD profiles across IL show mostly unidirectional
flow within this area of developing/ongoing convection. Will have
to watch influence of the clearing line as the KIWX VAD profile
does show some veering in the lowest 1000m. If this veering
persists despite mixing, then a non-zero chance for a tornado
would exist. Greater confidence is with a quick jump in
temperatures, low level mixing, and VAD winds quickly becoming
unidirectional. Primary hazard with storms remains damaging wind.
As mentioned above, strongly sheared storms are unlikely to result
in much of a large hail risk.

Front starts to push into the area late this afternoon/early
evening. There is a window where the lifting jet exit region and
the front overlap to strengthen convection. The best area for this
overlapping would be along and north of I-80. This is well
reflected in the HRRR with a progressive line of convection. This
line moves across the northern zones before exiting around 03Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Focus of the forecast is on the near term, but the general theme for
the remainder of the forecast remains unchanged. Dry and cool
conditions Monday into Tuesday, next chance for precipitation
Tuesday night/Wednesday, warmer Thurs and Friday. Location of the
building sub-tropical high over the southeastern US will dictate
if Thurs/Fri have chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

Pre-frontal rain showers with ceilings near/at MVFR criteria will
impact the terminals to start off the TAF period. Gusty winds to
about 30 knots remain in play as the low-level jet continues to
near the area. The best chance for thunderstorms is outlined in
the TEMPO groups; through FWA remains more likely to have a
thunderstorm compared to SBN. After thunderstorms along the cold
front pass through, VFR conditions can be expected until a
secondary cold front drops south near 12z, brining MVFR ceilings
back to the terminals.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...Brown

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
350 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

INZ003-MIZ077-192015-
La Porte-Berrien-
350 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LA PORTE AND SOUTHWESTERN BERRIEN
COUNTIES...

At 349 PM EDT/249 PM CDT/, a shower was located near Chesterton,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
shower.

Locations impacted include...
Michigan City, La Porte, Westville, Trail Creek, New Buffalo, Three
Oaks, Long Beach, Pottawattamie Park, Michiana Shores, Grand Beach,
Michiana, Waterford, Pinhook, Otis, Pottawattomie Park, Pinola,
Hesston, Springville and Rolling Prarie.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and 61.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 4.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana .

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8693 4173 8691 4176 8693 4184 8679
      4176 8650 4176 8652 4172 8652 4151 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 235DEG 40KT 4159 8700

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Brown

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

INZ003-012-013-192030-
La Porte-Pulaski-Starke-
307 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PULASKI...
STARKE AND LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 306 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a broken line extending from Valparaiso to near De Motte.
Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Porte, Westville, Knox, North Judson, Kingsford Heights, Wanatah,
Hamlet, La Crosse, Koontz Lake, Oak Grove, Hanna, Kingsbury, Lomax,
Ober, English Lake, Salem Heights, Fish Lake, Brems, Stillwell and
Clarks.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 59 and
61.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Northern Indiana .

&&

LAT...LON 4152 8693 4168 8664 4176 8653 4165 8653
      4165 8649 4157 8649 4156 8650 4152 8650
      4152 8652 4151 8653 4143 8652 4143 8647
      4129 8647 4111 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 239DEG 54KT 4146 8699 4112 8716

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Brown