Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Indianapolis, IN

063 
WWUS53 KIND 160039
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
839 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

INC005-031-079-160100-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-190616T0100Z/
Decatur IN-Bartholomew IN-Jennings IN-
839 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR...EASTERN BARTHOLOMEW AND NORTHERN JENNINGS
COUNTIES...

At 838 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Columbus, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Greensburg, Hope, Westport, Elizabethtown, Hartsville,
Azalia, Letts, Burney, Newbern and Grammer.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 60 and 63.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central and
southeastern Indiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3908 8600 3931 8583 3935 8546 3910 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 265DEG 26KT 3919 8573 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

AW/50

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
634 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

A series of fronts and upper waves will keep rain chances in the
forecast for central Indiana into next weekend. Strong storms and
heavy rain are possible for the remainder of this weekend.
Tempertures will remain near normal to below normal for most areas
through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This afternoon one surge of showers and storms was moving east and
impacting mainly the eastern forecast area. Showers and storms were
developing around an MCV across central and southern Illinois.

Most of the area is cool thanks to the rain earlier today. However,
warmer air is sneaking into the southern forecast area along with
higher dewpoints. Clouds were thinning mainly across the southern
forecast area ahead of the MCV.

Will go high PoPs most areas with the MCV this afternoon into early
evening. There is a conditional severe threat into early evening, if
the instability can build with the thinning cloud cover. Shear is
sufficient for severe storms. A tornado watch is in effect for much
of the area through 1000 PM.

After the MCV passes there will be relative lull with only some
chance PoPs into the early overnight. After that another upper wave
will bring more forcing, which should be sufficient for likely PoPs
across the southwest half of the area by 12Z Sunday.

Heavy rain will remain a threat with plentiful moisture still in the
area. Some areas have received nearly 3 inches of rain today, so
flash flooding remains a threat. Will continue with the Flash Flood
Watch as is.

The National Blend of Models (NBM) looks reasonable for temperatures
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Models are close enough that the NBM initialization was accepted for
most items.

Stronger forcing will diminish early Sunday as one wave exits. Only
chance PoPs will be the rule for most areas into early afternoon,
then another wave will increase forcing and PoPs in the afternoon
into early evening. Will go likely all areas by 00Z Monday.

The remainder of the short term will see similar conditions with
upper waves bringing an occasional increase in PoPs as they pass.
For the moment it appears that the southeast half of the area is
most likely to see the best chances for rain. Confidence is only
medium at best on timing of these waves.

The heavy rain threat will diminish on Sunday as a relative lull of
forcing moves in. Will let the Flash Flood Watch expire Sunday
morning for now, but will have to continue to monitor for the need
for additional watches with the expected rounds of showers and
storms.

The intialization's temperatures look reasonable given expected
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

The very busy pattern looks to continue into the long term period
with multiple disturbances moving through the region, providing rain
and thunder chances each day or at least every other day.
Blend has produced pops for each period primarily due to timing
differences between the models. These differences are to a large
degree dependent on mesoscale details that the larger scale models
simply can't handle reliably in the long term and thus will leave
the blend as is.

Temperatures will remain a bit below normal for the time of year,
particularly on wet days, but may climb back closer to the normal
mark very late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 160000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Mid level vorticity center currently entering west central Indiana
is progged by pass off to the east of the terminals around 160200Z.
As a result, expecting convection to diminish in coverage in the
vicinity of the terminals by that time. Brief IFR visibility
restrictions and gusty shifting winds in and near heavier cells.

Convective potential later this evening and overnight a little
less clear. Short term models hang back the trailing vorticity
tail over the area, and pattern is favorable for additional
convective development later tonight along the trailing tail,
given enhanced 850mb flow and the advection of steeper level lapse
rates from the southwest. However, short term models have been
erratic as to exactly where this vorticity tail will eventually
set up.

May see an increase in convective potential towards daybreak
Sunday, as some of the model data suggest remnants of activity
current over Iowa may drop into the area.

Otherwise, outside of convective areas, expecting areas of
ceilings around 040 with layered cloud above. Depending on amount
of convection later tonight, may see some lower ceilings
006 AGL-012 develop during the pre dawn hours of Sunday.

Surface wind pattern a little messy due to ongoing convection, but
expecting winds to settle to 220-260 degrees this evening, with
winds backing around to 190-220 degrees by early morning Sunday.
Speeds generally 6-10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
459 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-162100-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
459 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Severe
storms are possible this evening.

Hazards: Flash flooding from heavy rainfall, damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes, lightning.

Timing: Thunderstorms are possible anytime. The highest threats for
severe storms will be before 1000 PM. Flash flooding is possible
anytime.

Discussion: Upper waves and a surface front will keep showers and
thunderstorms across the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible each day. A few strong to
isolated severe storms are possible on Sunday. Lightning and locally
heavy rain are threats from any storm. Repeated rounds of rainfall,
heavy at times, could lead to moderate widespread flooding this week.

Discussion: A stalling frontal system and active upper pattern will
bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
746 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE PARAGON           39.31N 86.52W
06/15/2019                   MONROE             IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
748 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPENCER                 39.29N 86.77W
06/15/2019  M2.65 INCH       OWEN               IN   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SINCE 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW WHITEHALL          39.15N 86.62W
06/15/2019  M60 MPH          MONROE             IN   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
809 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SPRING LAKE         39.78N 85.84W
06/15/2019                   HANCOCK            IN   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWNED IN SPRING LAKE WITH
            SOME POWER POLES DOWN AS WELL.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
811 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W OAKVILLE            40.08N 85.41W
06/15/2019                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED NUMEROUS 4 TO 8 INCH TREE
            LIMBS SNAPPED AS WELL AS A FEW SMALL TREES
            UPROOTED NORTH OF SPRINGPORT.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE CAMBY             39.62N 86.26W
06/15/2019                   MORGAN             IN   PUBLIC

            PICTURES SENT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF SEVERAL
            LARGE LIMBS ACROSS MANN ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

AW