Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Wet weather is expected through at least Tuesday. A frontal
boundary is expect to linger across southern Indiana during the
beginning of the week. Several areas of low pressure will push
across Indiana during that time...producing rain. Rain could be
heavy at times.

Rain chances are expected to continue from Tuesday into next
weekend as the humid...wet...rainy weather pattern continues.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Surface analysis early this morning showed low pressure over Iowa
with a warm front extending southeast to Central Indiana. Radar
continues to show convection development along the front across
Central Indiana...mainly along I-74. More storms over Central
Illinois were poised to push back into central Indiana with the
next couple of hours.

The models once again keep the lower level boundary in place
through the day. The wave over Central illinois is suggested to
push across Central Indiana during the morning hours...exiting the
state by near 12Z. Models then suggest a lull in upper support as
a break in between short wave is suggested. Time heights show
best lift ending by 12Z...with still plenty of mid and lower level
moisture present...but subsidence arriving. Forecast soundings
show attainable convective temperatures this afternoon with
plenty of CAPE near 3000 J/KG and pwats over 1.6 inches. Thus best
forcing will not be in the area this afternoon...but given the
airmass and daytime heating...afternoon convection cannot be ruled
out. Thus will keep chances for storms all day...with best
chances this morning with the departing wave...and ramping chances
down in its departure...then back up in the late afternoon and
evening. Will stick to a blend on temps. Flooding may continue to
be a threat...but confidence for precise locations is low at this
time. As for temps...will stick close to the blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 208 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Wet. Wet. Wet.

GFS and NAM suggest the pesky surface boundary will remain in
place across southern Indiana through at least Tuesday. Aloft...a
parade of short waves is expected to pass across the
boundary...each providing excellent forcing. A moist air mass
looks to remain in place through Tuesday Night with dew points in
the 60s. Forecast soundings through Tuesday show a deeply
saturated airmass with pwats failing to fall below 1.3 inches and
ranging as high as 1.9 inches during the period. The GFS suggests
three short waves passing through Indiana...along the frontal
Boundary. The first is suggested tonight...a second on Monday
Night...and for now...the third and most organized in appearance
on Tuesday. We can expect some lulls in precip in between these
waves...but will still ramp up pops during each of these time
periods due favorable set up for heavy rains. Given the warm and
humid air mass in place will trend highs at or below the NBM and
lows at or above the NBM.

Again...flooding could be a threat early this week...and
depending upon how these systems play out...flood or flash flood
watches may be needed soon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

With active warnings in effect, will keep the long term discussion
brief.

Models and ensembles continue to hint at an active long term,
especially Wednesday afternoon and night, when the strongest wave
will move through the area with the front still hanging around.
Heavy rain and flooding will continue to be an issue.

Blend near normal highs look reasonable but confidence is not great
on specifics with a front nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 160900Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

No changes needed to the TAF. Line of strong storms will be moving
in by 09z.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Convective potential expected to continue overnight and on into
the mid to late morning hours of Sunday in the vicinity of the
terminals, as enhanced flow at 850mb and advection of steeper
lapse rates off to the southwest interacts with a trailing
vorticity tail. Remnants of activity currently moving through
northwest Illinois may also move into the area during the early
morning hours of Sunday. IFR visibility restrictions and gusty
shifting winds in and near heavier cells.

Patchy fog has been developing over the past hour or so. Not sure
how widespread this may become, due to potential for additional
convection, which will serve to keep the air mass mixed up.

Outside of convection, areas of ceilings around 040 expected
through midday Sunday, with layered cloud above. Some of the model
data suggest the development of lower ceilings 006 AGL-012 towards
daybreak Sunday, but confidence in this is low at this time,
depending on amount of convective activity overnight.

Surface winds 190-220 degrees at 6-10 kts overnight will gradually
veer around to 240-270 degrees at 9-12 kts by midday Sunday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
413 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-170815-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, Cumberland, New Castle, Terre Haute,
Brazil, Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood,
Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield,
Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington,
Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown,
and North Vernon
413 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning and
tonight. Severe storms are possible this evening. Heavy Rain
resulting in Flooding and Flash Flooding will be possible.

Hazards: Flash flooding from heavy rainfall, damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes, lightning.

Timing: Thunderstorms This morning...then again late this afternoon
and tonight. Flash flooding is possible anytime.

Discussion: Upper waves and a surface front will keep showers and
thunderstorms across the area today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms are possible each day. A few strong to
isolated severe storms are possible on Sunday. Lightning and locally
heavy rain are threats from any storm. Repeated rounds of rainfall,
heavy at times, could lead to moderate widespread flooding this week.

Discussion: A stalling frontal system and active upper pattern will
bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to central Indiana
this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Puma