Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Lincoln, IL

136 
WWUS53 KILX 220455
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILC033-079-101-159-220515-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190522T0515Z/
Lawrence-Crawford-Jasper-Richland-
1155 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND
NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES...

At 1154 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hardinville, 
or 7 miles southwest of Robinson, moving northeast at 45 mph. 
Another storm was located west of Claremont, or 5 miles east of 
Olney, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Olney, Robinson, Oblong, Palestine, Hutsonville, Flat Rock, Ste.
Marie, Willow Hill, New Hebron, Chauncey, Birds, Hardinville, Eaton,
Dundas, West Liberty, Merom, Stoy, Crawford County Airport and
Trimble.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for southeastern
Illinois.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8815 3898 8810 3917 8772 3916 8764
      3914 8766 3912 8763 3911 8765 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3895 8751
      3886 8755 3883 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 238DEG 39KT 3895 8786 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SB

197 
WWUS53 KILX 220512
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1212 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

ILC033-079-101-159-220522-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190522T0515Z/
Lawrence-Crawford-Jasper-Richland-
1212 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for southeastern
Illinois.

LAT...LON 3869 8815 3898 8810 3917 8772 3916 8764
      3914 8766 3912 8763 3911 8765 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3895 8751
      3886 8755 3883 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 238DEG 39KT 3904 8768 

$$

SB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The frontal system associated with a powerful occluding low
moving into the upper midwest is responsible for thunderstorms
moving into central Illinois this evening. The warm front
extending from southwest IL near St. Louis Metro area into
southeast IL is associated with a favorable area for severe
thunderstorms and a few tornadoes possible this evening. The warm
front is expected to lift northeastward into parts of southeast IL
as far north as Moultrie county before being overtaken by more
stable air behind the current thunderstorm squall line. Current
high resolution models de-intensify thunderstorm activity slowly
overnight as the squall line moves eastward. A tornado watch has
been issued for Shelby County northeastward through Moultrie and
Coles County and southward to Richland and Clay Counties, as well
as additional portions of southern Illinois until 3 a.m.
Otherwise, a flash flood watch continues through 1 a.m. for much
of central and western IL due to heavy stratiform rain as well as
the main squall line. Updates this evening have been to refine
timing of thunderstorms as well as the recent tornado watch
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Will continue the flash flood watch through 1 am cdt tonight west
of I-57, with widespread 1 inch amounts expected this evening and
locally 1-1.5 inches possible along and west of highway 51. Much
of CWA currently dry at mid afternoon with a small area of showers
over central IN, while more widespread convection upstream over
central/western MO and into central/eastern IL. A developing
strong to potentially severe squall line was pushing ne into
central and southcentral MO. 3 pm surface map shows deepening 990
mb low pressure over west central KS with its warm front extending
eastward through central MO and into far southern IL and sw KY
(nearing Evansville IN). Lowering cloud decks over central IL
during the day with breezy east ESE winds 15-25 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph. Cool temps in the mid 50s northern CWA and lower
60s in southeast IL.

SPC day1 update continues slight risk of severe storms along and
sw of a Canton to Lincoln to Olney line with marginal risk over
rest of ne CWA. The enhanced risk of severe storms has shifted
southward into southern parts of Scott, Morgan and far sw Sangamon
counties. Main severe wx threat this evening is damaging wind
gusts from leading edge of squall line that track into sw CWA
early this evening and toward I-57 between midnight and 1 am.
Isolated chances of large hail and tornadoes too especially sw
CWA. Convection to gradually weaken during overnight as it moves
into eastern IL and to IN border, but still could be a few strong
to isolated severe storms mainly for gusty winds. Rainfall to last
about 4 hours but moderate to heavy rains especially on leading
edge of squall to give about 1 inch of rain west of I-57 with
locally 1-1.5 inches along and west of highway 51. Temps will be
nearly steady or even slowly rising into this evening as warm
front lifts northward into central IL. Kept lows in the mid 50s
northern CWA and lower 60s se IL.

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger se of a
Danville to Flora line early Wed morning, otherwise dry Wed over
area with skies becoming mostly sunny. Breezy ssw winds with gusts
25-30 mph to warm temps into the low to mid 80s for highs on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A cold front pressing se into nw IL overnight Wed night to return
good chances of showers and thunderstorms after midnight to
central IL. SPC day2 outlook expanded marginal risk of severe
storms mainly for hail overnight Wed night into nw half of CWa and
WPC has marginal risk of excessive rainfall, though amounts
generally look less than a half inch over most of CWA overnight
Wed night into Thu morning. Lows Wed night range from around 60 nw
of the IL river to the upper 60s in southeast IL. A bit cooler
highs in the upper 70s to near 80F nw of the IL river Thu with mid
80s in southeast IL. Lingering chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly se of the IL river Thu as frontal boundary
weakens over the area.

Low pressure emerging over the central plains on Friday to push
front back north and brings isolated showers/thunderstorms to
northern half of CWA overnight Thu night into Friday. Temps warm
back up on Friday with highs ranging from lower 80s by Galesburg
to upper 80s to near 90F in southeast IL.

Unsettled weather pattern for overnight Fri night through Memorial
Day along with threat of moderate to heavy rains with periodic
chances of thunderstorms as a frontal boundary likely meanders
over central and northern parts of IL/IN with subtropical upper
level ridge over the southeast states and flattening upper level
trof over the northern plains and northern great lakes region. A
bit cooler highs Sat range from around 80F over the IL river
valley and mid 80s se of I-70. Cooler mid to upper 70s over much
of central IL Sun/Mon and lower 80s in southeast IL which appears
to stay in warm sector longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A region of MVFR cigs over most of the central IL terminals at 00Z
is expected to drift northwestward while a line of thunderstorms
moves in from the southwest early this evening, bringing a return
to MVFR cigs for a few hours as well as reduced vsbys to IFR or
MVFR ranges. Thunderstorms expected to arrive at KPIA and KSPI
around 01Z, KBMI and KDEC around 03Z, and KCMI around 04Z. Showers
will diminish through the late evening and overnight resulting in
a return to VFR conditions. Winds ESE 15-25 kts this evening with
gusts to around 30-35 kts, decreasing to 10-15 kts overnight, then
turning southerly and increasing to 15-20 kts and gusts to 25 kts
after 15Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>044-047>054-061.

&&

UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ036-040>042-047>054-061-221100-
Cass-Christian-Fulton-Logan-Macon-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Damaging winds and localized flash flooding are the primary
concerns:however, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Major flooding continues for portions of the Illinois River from
Havana downstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

While river levels will continue to fall along the Illinois
River, flooding will persist through the upcoming week.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening...particulary from
7pm through 10pm.

ILZ027>031-037-038-043-044-221100-
De Witt-Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Piatt-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms this evening. Damaging
winds and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns.

Moderate flooding continues for portions of the Illinois River
from Henry through Peoria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

While river levels will continue to fall along the Illinois
River, flooding will persist through the upcoming week.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Champaign-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-Vermilion-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms this evening into
tonight. Damaging winds are the primary concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1021 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TOWER HILL              39.39N 88.96W
05/21/2019  M1.25 INCH       SHELBY             IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAND-TV

&&

25

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1051 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ027>031-036-037-220600-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, and Pekin
1051 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A period of strong gusty east to southeast winds can be expected
through around 1 a.m. as rain showers come to an end. Expect gusts
up to 50 mph. Use caution driving, especially in high profile
vehicles.

37