Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Lincoln, IL

221 
WWUS53 KILX 220252
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
952 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILC049-139-173-220315-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190522T0315Z/
Moultrie-Shelby-Effingham-
952 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR MOULTRIE...EASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 952 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lovington to Windsor to near Beecher City, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Effingham, Sullivan, Altamont, Bethany, Lovington, Windsor,
Stewardson, Findlay, Cowden, Dalton City, Beecher City, Shumway,
Allenville, Moccasin, Strasburg, Clarksburg, Sigel, Gays, Wolf Creek
State Park and Lake City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 157 and 171.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 79 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for south central,
central and east central Illinois.

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 8887 3947 8872 3967 8881 3974 8881
      3974 8876 3979 8876 3979 8864 3946 8848
      3917 8847 3891 8880 3922 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 220DEG 42KT 3971 8867 3945 8862 3914 8879 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SB

473 
WWUS53 KILX 220306
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1006 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILC049-139-173-220316-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190522T0315Z/
Moultrie-Shelby-Effingham-
1006 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MOULTRIE...EASTERN SHELBY AND
WESTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for south central,
central and east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3922 8887 3947 8872 3967 8881 3974 8881
      3974 8876 3979 8876 3979 8864 3946 8848
      3917 8847 3891 8880 3922 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 220DEG 42KT 3982 8856 3956 8851 3925 8868 

$$

SB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
902 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

The frontal system associated with a powerful occluding low
moving into the upper midwest is responsible for thunderstorms
moving into central Illinois this evening. The warm front
extending from southwest IL near St. Louis Metro area into
southeast IL is associated with a favorable area for severe
thunderstorms and a few tornadoes possible this evening. The warm
front is expected to lift northeastward into parts of southeast IL
as far north as Moultrie county before being overtaken by more
stable air behind the current thunderstorm squall line. Current
high resolution models de-intensify thunderstorm activity slowly
overnight as the squall line moves eastward. A tornado watch has
been issued for Shelby County northeastward through Moultrie and
Coles County and southward to Richland and Clay Counties, as well
as additional portions of southern Illinois until 3 a.m.
Otherwise, a flash flood watch continues through 1 a.m. for much
of central and western IL due to heavy stratiform rain as well as
the main squall line. Updates this evening have been to refine
timing of thunderstorms as well as the recent tornado watch
issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Will continue the flash flood watch through 1 am cdt tonight west
of I-57, with widespread 1 inch amounts expected this evening and
locally 1-1.5 inches possible along and west of highway 51. Much
of CWA currently dry at mid afternoon with a small area of showers
over central IN, while more widespread convection upstream over
central/western MO and into central/eastern IL. A developing
strong to potentially severe squall line was pushing ne into
central and southcentral MO. 3 pm surface map shows deepening 990
mb low pressure over west central KS with its warm front extending
eastward through central MO and into far southern IL and sw KY
(nearing Evansville IN). Lowering cloud decks over central IL
during the day with breezy east ESE winds 15-25 mph and gusts to
around 30 mph. Cool temps in the mid 50s northern CWA and lower
60s in southeast IL.

SPC day1 update continues slight risk of severe storms along and
sw of a Canton to Lincoln to Olney line with marginal risk over
rest of ne CWA. The enhanced risk of severe storms has shifted
southward into southern parts of Scott, Morgan and far sw Sangamon
counties. Main severe wx threat this evening is damaging wind
gusts from leading edge of squall line that track into sw CWA
early this evening and toward I-57 between midnight and 1 am.
Isolated chances of large hail and tornadoes too especially sw
CWA. Convection to gradually weaken during overnight as it moves
into eastern IL and to IN border, but still could be a few strong
to isolated severe storms mainly for gusty winds. Rainfall to last
about 4 hours but moderate to heavy rains especially on leading
edge of squall to give about 1 inch of rain west of I-57 with
locally 1-1.5 inches along and west of highway 51. Temps will be
nearly steady or even slowly rising into this evening as warm
front lifts northward into central IL. Kept lows in the mid 50s
northern CWA and lower 60s se IL.

Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm could linger se of a
Danville to Flora line early Wed morning, otherwise dry Wed over
area with skies becoming mostly sunny. Breezy ssw winds with gusts
25-30 mph to warm temps into the low to mid 80s for highs on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A cold front pressing se into nw IL overnight Wed night to return
good chances of showers and thunderstorms after midnight to
central IL. SPC day2 outlook expanded marginal risk of severe
storms mainly for hail overnight Wed night into nw half of CWa and
WPC has marginal risk of excessive rainfall, though amounts
generally look less than a half inch over most of CWA overnight
Wed night into Thu morning. Lows Wed night range from around 60 nw
of the IL river to the upper 60s in southeast IL. A bit cooler
highs in the upper 70s to near 80F nw of the IL river Thu with mid
80s in southeast IL. Lingering chances of showers and a few
thunderstorms mainly se of the IL river Thu as frontal boundary
weakens over the area.

Low pressure emerging over the central plains on Friday to push
front back north and brings isolated showers/thunderstorms to
northern half of CWA overnight Thu night into Friday. Temps warm
back up on Friday with highs ranging from lower 80s by Galesburg
to upper 80s to near 90F in southeast IL.

Unsettled weather pattern for overnight Fri night through Memorial
Day along with threat of moderate to heavy rains with periodic
chances of thunderstorms as a frontal boundary likely meanders
over central and northern parts of IL/IN with subtropical upper
level ridge over the southeast states and flattening upper level
trof over the northern plains and northern great lakes region. A
bit cooler highs Sat range from around 80F over the IL river
valley and mid 80s se of I-70. Cooler mid to upper 70s over much
of central IL Sun/Mon and lower 80s in southeast IL which appears
to stay in warm sector longer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A region of MVFR cigs over most of the central IL terminals at 00Z
is expected to drift northwestward while a line of thunderstorms
moves in from the southwest early this evening, bringing a return
to MVFR cigs for a few hours as well as reduced vsbys to IFR or
MVFR ranges. Thunderstorms expected to arrive at KPIA and KSPI
around 01Z, KBMI and KDEC around 03Z, and KCMI around 04Z. Showers
will diminish through the late evening and overnight resulting in
a return to VFR conditions. Winds ESE 15-25 kts this evening with
gusts to around 30-35 kts, decreasing to 10-15 kts overnight, then
turning southerly and increasing to 15-20 kts and gusts to 25 kts
after 15Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>044-047>054-061.

&&

UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

ILZ036-040>042-047>054-061-221100-
Cass-Christian-Fulton-Logan-Macon-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Damaging winds and localized flash flooding are the primary
concerns:however, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Major flooding continues for portions of the Illinois River from
Havana downstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

While river levels will continue to fall along the Illinois
River, flooding will persist through the upcoming week.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening...particulary from
7pm through 10pm.

ILZ027>031-037-038-043-044-221100-
De Witt-Knox-Marshall-McLean-Peoria-Piatt-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms this evening. Damaging
winds and localized flash flooding are the primary concerns.

Moderate flooding continues for portions of the Illinois River
from Henry through Peoria.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

While river levels will continue to fall along the Illinois
River, flooding will persist through the upcoming week.

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Champaign-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-
Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-Vermilion-
332 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

There is a risk for strong thunderstorms this evening into
tonight. Damaging winds are the primary concern.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

There will be additional periodic chances for thunderstorms
Thursday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

Barnes