Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A very active weather pattern for the short term as a stalled
frontal system is draped over the region.  Current satellite shows
most of Southern Kansas covered in low clouds which will hinder the
recovery today as far as temperatures.  The extent of the cloud
cover will also make it more difficult to produce the wide spread
thunderstorm activity.  Southwest Kansas is the most unstable with
some semi-discrete thunderstorms already firing up. MUCAPE and 0-6Km
Bulk shear slowly ramp up during the day today which does raise the
specter of severe thunderstorms again for much of the CWA.  The main
hindrance for severe weather today will again be the cloud cover and
how worked over the atmosphere is at the moment due to two straight
days of thunderstorm activity. This has handicapped the lapse rates
in the 5-6 deg/km range.  This is not good for wide spread severe.
On the other hand, MUCAPE is progged to be in the 2000-2500 J/Kg and
0-6Km Bulk Shear is in the 35-45kt range through the afternoon. This
is more favorable for severe weather but not great either. Moisture
transport is excellent and will provide ample fuel to any
thunderstorm activity that is expected occur. Main threats at this
afternoon and overnight will be quarter to half dollar sized hail
and 60-70 mph winds.  The tornado threat does not look great but low
level shear is good so a few tornados are possible. With the
moisture transport looking very good for this afternoon and evening
there is a strong chance for persistent heavy rain throughout the
evening (see more in Hydro section).

Wednesday, this frontal system will be slowly moving through the CWA
which will keep the weather very unsettled.  Showers and
thunderstorms, some of them severe will continue to be likely
through Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Unlike today, Wednesday
the moisture transport will be significantly less with the bulk of
the good moisture transport shunted off to the East in Missouri and
Arkansas.  MUCAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg with 0-6Km
shear expected to be in the 35-40kt range with an orientation nearly
parallel to the front.  While these parameters are often decent for
thunderstorm activity with some severe, the lapse rates are a paltry
3-5 deg/Km. Considering cloud cover will likely be extensive making
recovery difficult, the severe weather threat looks to decrease some
during the day.  Heavy rain threat also looks to diminish as well
but the atmosphere looks to remain unsettled enough to keep wide
spread showers and thunderstorms.  The main variable for Wednesday
will be the cloud cover and how the thunderstorm activity tonight
evolves.  If the sun comes out Wednesday afternoon, the chances for
severe thunderstorms will go up significantly.

Thursday the front will have moved through and high pressure will be
coming into the region.  Northerly flow and CAA will take full
control.  This will start to shut down the showers and thunderstorms
and push them off to the east.  Temperatures will come down below
normal for a couple of days

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A much calmer weather pattern will dominate the region extended
range through the weekend.  Temperatures will be near or a little
below normal.  Rain chances will be much lower with Saturday looking
to be the only day of the Weekend with any significant chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not look likely
for Saturday at this time. Southerly flow does not look to return
to the region until Sunday and into Monday.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

At 05Z, a stationary front remained parked from Srn MO, to along
the KS/OK border, to the TX Panhandle. Widespread SHRA & embedded
TSRA continue across most of KS, the exceptions being SE KS & the
NW 1/4 of the state. Most areas well to the NW of the front
remain shrouded in LIFR Stratus. Complicating matters is that a
lower-level dry punch has been thrusting NE from the Swrn Plains
to as far N/NE as KRSL, so have KGBD & KRSL VFR out of the
starting blocks, but this would be temporal. Still anticipate
little, if any, improvement thru tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  73  45  54 / 100  50  50  10
Hutchinson      57  71  43  53 / 100  60  40  10
Newton          59  72  42  52 / 100  60  50  10
ElDorado        60  73  45  53 / 100  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  75  47  56 / 100  50  50  10
Russell         53  65  39  53 /  90  60  40  20
Great Bend      54  67  40  52 / 100  50  40  20
Salina          58  69  42  54 / 100  60  50  10
McPherson       59  70  42  53 / 100  60  50  10
Coffeyville     63  75  53  59 /  60  80  60  10
Chanute         63  75  50  57 /  60  70  70  20
Iola            62  74  50  56 /  60  70  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    63  75  52  58 /  60  70  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
106 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090615-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
106 AM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes remain possible across southeast Kansas through early this
morning. Additional thunderstorms may redevelop Wednesday
afternoon, but it is uncertain how strong they will be able to get
due to previous rounds of thunderstorms. Should any thunderstorms
become severe, the areas at greatest risk would be east and
southeast of the Turnpike.

Significant flash flooding is ongoing, or will soon occur, across
portions of south- central and southeast Kansas. In addition,
significant and, in some cases, record-breaking river flooding is
occurring or forecast to occur. Please see the latest Flash Flood
and River Flood Warnings for information specific to your area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, significant rises on rivers
and creeks are expected across a large portion of the area. Please
see the latest River Flood Warnings and statements for additional
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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