Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A very active weather pattern for the short term as a stalled
frontal system is draped over the region.  Current satellite shows
most of Southern Kansas covered in low clouds which will hinder the
recovery today as far as temperatures.  The extent of the cloud
cover will also make it more difficult to produce the wide spread
thunderstorm activity.  Southwest Kansas is the most unstable with
some semi-discrete thunderstorms already firing up. MUCAPE and 0-6Km
Bulk shear slowly ramp up during the day today which does raise the
specter of severe thunderstorms again for much of the CWA.  The main
hindrance for severe weather today will again be the cloud cover and
how worked over the atmosphere is at the moment due to two straight
days of thunderstorm activity. This has handicapped the lapse rates
in the 5-6 deg/km range.  This is not good for wide spread severe.
On the other hand, MUCAPE is progged to be in the 2000-2500 J/Kg and
0-6Km Bulk Shear is in the 35-45kt range through the afternoon. This
is more favorable for severe weather but not great either. Moisture
transport is excellent and will provide ample fuel to any
thunderstorm activity that is expected occur. Main threats at this
afternoon and overnight will be quarter to half dollar sized hail
and 60-70 mph winds.  The tornado threat does not look great but low
level shear is good so a few tornados are possible. With the
moisture transport looking very good for this afternoon and evening
there is a strong chance for persistent heavy rain throughout the
evening (see more in Hydro section).

Wednesday, this frontal system will be slowly moving through the CWA
which will keep the weather very unsettled.  Showers and
thunderstorms, some of them severe will continue to be likely
through Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Unlike today, Wednesday
the moisture transport will be significantly less with the bulk of
the good moisture transport shunted off to the East in Missouri and
Arkansas.  MUCAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg with 0-6Km
shear expected to be in the 35-40kt range with an orientation nearly
parallel to the front.  While these parameters are often decent for
thunderstorm activity with some severe, the lapse rates are a paltry
3-5 deg/Km. Considering cloud cover will likely be extensive making
recovery difficult, the severe weather threat looks to decrease some
during the day.  Heavy rain threat also looks to diminish as well
but the atmosphere looks to remain unsettled enough to keep wide
spread showers and thunderstorms.  The main variable for Wednesday
will be the cloud cover and how the thunderstorm activity tonight
evolves.  If the sun comes out Wednesday afternoon, the chances for
severe thunderstorms will go up significantly.

Thursday the front will have moved through and high pressure will be
coming into the region.  Northerly flow and CAA will take full
control.  This will start to shut down the showers and thunderstorms
and push them off to the east.  Temperatures will come down below
normal for a couple of days

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A much calmer weather pattern will dominate the region extended
range through the weekend.  Temperatures will be near or a little
below normal.  Rain chances will be much lower with Saturday looking
to be the only day of the Weekend with any significant chance for
showers and thunderstorms.  Severe weather does not look likely for
Saturday at this time.  Southerly flow does not look to return to
the region until Sunday and into Monday.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

At 00Z, a stationary front was situated from Srn MO, across SE KS,
to the TX Panhandle. along & SE of the front, clusters of (+)TSRA
continue from SC KS to the TX Panhandle. Areas outside of (+)TSRA
were VFR. Well to the NW of the front IFR/LIFR cigs shrouded KSLN,
KRSL & KGBD & where areas of RA, along with a few embedded TSRA,
continued to cross these areas. No doubt, where RA occurs IFR
vsbys are likely. Very little, if any, improvement is anticipated
thru tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  74  45  54 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      59  71  43  53 /  90  60  40  10
Newton          59  72  42  52 /  90  60  50  10
ElDorado        60  74  45  53 /  90  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  75  47  56 /  90  50  50  10
Russell         53  66  39  53 /  90  60  40  20
Great Bend      54  67  40  52 /  80  50  40  20
Salina          58  69  42  54 /  90  60  50  10
McPherson       59  70  42  53 /  90  60  50  10
Coffeyville     63  76  53  59 /  90  80  60  10
Chanute         63  75  50  57 /  90  60  70  20
Iola            62  75  50  56 /  90  70  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    63  75  52  58 /  90  70  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1010 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090315-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1010 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of Central, South-Central
and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms remain possible across Southern Kansas the rest
of the night. Areas at greatest risk are the Oklahoma-bordering
counties where a few areas may receive golf ball-sized hail, winds
up to around 70 mph and perhaps even a few tornadoes. The greatest
threat, though, is very heavy rain that will aggravate the flooding
and flash flooding potential.

For further details, you should refer to Tornado Watch #149 that is
in affect until 5 AM CDT and the Flash Flood Watch that remains in
effect until Wednesday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning, primarily
with a gusty 40 to 50 mph wind and heavy rain threat. Additional
thunderstorms may redevelop Wednesday afternoon, but it is uncertain
how strong they will be able to get due to previous rounds of
thunderstorms. Should any thunderstorms become severe, the areas at
greatest risk would be east and southeast of the Turnpike.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, significant rises on rivers
and creeks are expected across a large portion of the area. Please
see the latest River Flood Warnings and statements for additional
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
941 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARPER                  37.29N 98.03W
05/07/2019  E50 MPH          HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
946 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ067-068-082-083-091-092-080315-
Reno KS-Harper KS-Harvey KS-Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-Kingman KS-
946 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Western Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  Western Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...
  Eastern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1015 PM CDT.

* At 944 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  southwest of Haven to near Norwich to Manchester...and moving east
  at 25 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Goddard, Maize, Kingman, Clearwater, Anthony, Cheney,
  Halstead, Harper, Colwich, Conway Springs, Haven, Garden Plain,
  Mount Hope, Pretty Prairie, Andale, Bentley, Argonia, Norwich and
  Viola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9827 3746 9812 3791 9814 3803 9745
      3753 9748 3700 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 261DEG 23KT 3784 9787 3748 9789 3699 9803

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
951 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ069-080315-
Butler KS-
951 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1015 PM CDT.

* At 949 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Towanda...moving north at 15
  mph.

Pea to dime size hail is possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Towanda and Potwin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9692 3775 9709 3804 9713 3801 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 186DEG 13KT 3783 9699

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1000 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ069-093-080330-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-
1000 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 958 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Douglass...moving north at 15
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Augusta, Douglass, Rock and Augusta Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3738 9694 3741 9711 3770 9709 3764 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 192DEG 15KT 3747 9699

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1012 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MULVANE             37.48N 97.20W
05/07/2019                   SEDGWICK           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROADS ARE CLOSED FROM HIGH WATER EAST OF TOWN. 119TH AND
            GREENWICH, WEBB AND 119TH. ALSO DOG CREEK IS RUNNING BANK
            FULL.

&&

BDK