River Flood Warning 55, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A very active weather pattern for the short term as a stalled
frontal system is draped over the region.  Current satellite shows
most of Southern Kansas covered in low clouds which will hinder the
recovery today as far as temperatures.  The extent of the cloud
cover will also make it more difficult to produce the wide spread
thunderstorm activity.  Southwest Kansas is the most unstable with
some semi-discrete thunderstorms already firing up. MUCAPE and 0-6Km
Bulk shear slowly ramp up during the day today which does raise the
specter of severe thunderstorms again for much of the CWA.  The main
hindrance for severe weather today will again be the cloud cover and
how worked over the atmosphere is at the moment due to two straight
days of thunderstorm activity. This has handicapped the lapse rates
in the 5-6 deg/km range.  This is not good for wide spread severe.
On the other hand, MUCAPE is progged to be in the 2000-2500 J/Kg and
0-6Km Bulk Shear is in the 35-45kt range through the afternoon. This
is more favorable for severe weather but not great either. Moisture
transport is excellent and will provide ample fuel to any
thunderstorm activity that is expected occur. Main threats at this
afternoon and overnight will be quarter to half dollar sized hail
and 60-70 mph winds.  The tornado threat does not look great but low
level shear is good so a few tornados are possible. With the
moisture transport looking very good for this afternoon and evening
there is a strong chance for persistent heavy rain throughout the
evening (see more in Hydro section).

Wednesday, this frontal system will be slowly moving through the CWA
which will keep the weather very unsettled.  Showers and
thunderstorms, some of them severe will continue to be likely
through Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Unlike today, Wednesday
the moisture transport will be significantly less with the bulk of
the good moisture transport shunted off to the East in Missouri and
Arkansas.  MUCAPE is progged to be in the 1500-2000 J/Kg with 0-6Km
shear expected to be in the 35-40kt range with an orientation nearly
parallel to the front.  While these parameters are often decent for
thunderstorm activity with some severe, the lapse rates are a paltry
3-5 deg/Km. Considering cloud cover will likely be extensive making
recovery difficult, the severe weather threat looks to decrease some
during the day.  Heavy rain threat also looks to diminish as well
but the atmosphere looks to remain unsettled enough to keep wide
spread showers and thunderstorms.  The main variable for Wednesday
will be the cloud cover and how the thunderstorm activity tonight
evolves.  If the sun comes out Wednesday afternoon, the chances for
severe thunderstorms will go up significantly.

Thursday the front will have moved through and high pressure will be
coming into the region.  Northerly flow and CAA will take full
control.  This will start to shut down the showers and thunderstorms
and push them off to the east.  Temperatures will come down below
normal for a couple of days

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

A much calmer weather pattern will dominate the region extended
range through the weekend.  Temperatures will be near or a little
below normal.  Rain chances will be much lower with Saturday looking
to be the only day of the Weekend with any significant chance for
showers and thunderstorms.  Severe weather does not look likely for
Saturday at this time.  Southerly flow does not look to return to
the region until Sunday and into Monday.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

At 00Z, a stationary front was situated from Srn MO, across SE KS,
to the TX Panhandle. along & SE of the front, clusters of (+)TSRA
continue from SC KS to the TX Panhandle. Areas outside of (+)TSRA
were VFR. Well to the NW of the front IFR/LIFR cigs shrouded KSLN,
KRSL & KGBD & where areas of RA, along with a few embedded TSRA,
continued to cross these areas. No doubt, where RA occurs IFR
vsbys are likely. Very little, if any, improvement is anticipated
thru tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  74  45  54 /  90  50  50  10
Hutchinson      59  71  43  53 /  90  60  40  10
Newton          59  72  42  52 /  90  60  50  10
ElDorado        60  74  45  53 /  90  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   60  75  47  56 /  90  50  50  10
Russell         53  66  39  53 /  90  60  40  20
Great Bend      54  67  40  52 /  80  50  40  20
Salina          58  69  42  54 /  90  60  50  10
McPherson       59  70  42  53 /  90  60  50  10
Coffeyville     63  76  53  59 /  90  80  60  10
Chanute         63  75  50  57 /  90  60  70  20
Iola            62  75  50  56 /  90  70  80  20
Parsons-KPPF    63  75  52  58 /  90  70  60  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
347 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe weather is possible for mainly southern Kansas this
afternoon through the late evening hours. Very large hail up to
baseball size, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and a few tornadoes
will be possible. The storms could congeal into a bowing line
segments later tonight with damaging winds as the main risk.

In addition, numerous showers and storms continue to develop and
move across the region tonight. Some of this activity could train
over the same areas. This would increase the risk for flash
flooding, please see the Flash Flood Watch for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning, primarily
with a gusty wind and heavy rain threat. Additional thunderstorms
may redevelop Wednesday afternoon, but it is uncertain how strong
they will be able to get due to previous rounds of thunderstorms.
Should any storms become severe, the main threat looks to be east
of the Kansas Turnpike.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, significant rises on rivers
and creeks are expected across a large portion of the area. Please
see the latest River Flood Warnings and statements for additional
details. Additionally, depending on how much rain falls tonight,
residual flash and areal flooding is likely to cause some
significant problems through much of Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ067-082-080045-
Reno KS-Kingman KS-
718 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 717 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cunningham, or 8 miles east of
  Preston...moving northeast at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cunningham, Turon, Langdon and Penalosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3792 9845 3782 9814 3758 9843 3761 9847
      3782 9846 3783 9847 3787 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 207DEG 20KT 3772 9841

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
05/07/2019                   BUTLER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1 FOOT DIAMETER TRIM LIMB IS DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            TOWN. DELAYED REPORT FROM KAKE TV.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
731 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND GST     PIEDMONT                37.62N 96.37W
05/07/2019  E80 MPH          GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
737 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     HAIL             PIEDMONT                37.62N 96.37W
05/07/2019  M0.75 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
743 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ067-080115-
Reno KS-
743 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 742 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Turon, or 10 miles east of
  Neola...moving northeast at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arlington, Turon, Plevna and Langdon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3779 9846 3801 9837 3790 9806 3773 9830
      3773 9844 3774 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 213DEG 13KT 3782 9833

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
754 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

KSZ092-093-080130-
Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
754 PM CDT Tue May 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southeastern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 752 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Geuda Springs, or 8 miles west
  of Arkansas City...moving northeast at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Geuda Springs and Strother Field Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9735 3722 9728 3718 9697 3700 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 209DEG 19KT 3706 9720

KLEINSASSER