Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

750 
WWUS53 KICT 180027
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
727 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

KSC015-173-191-180100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190418T0100Z/
Sedgwick KS-Butler KS-Sumner KS-
727 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTHEASTERN
SUMNER COUNTIES...

At 727 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles south of El Dorado to near Rose Hill, moving
north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Andover, Augusta, Mulvane, Rose Hill, Douglass, Belle
Plaine, Leon, Downtown Wichita, Eastborough, East Wichita, Eisenhower
National Airport, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell Air Force Base, South
Wichita, Santa Fe Lake, Augusta Municipal Airport, Oaklawn and Jabara
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 9734 3757 9721 3762 9752 3775 9731
      3777 9682 3763 9673 3747 9711 3748 9715
      3746 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 185DEG 9KT 3774 9687 3759 9718 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LAWSON

492 
WWUS53 KICT 180043
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
743 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

KSC015-173-191-180100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190418T0100Z/
Sedgwick KS-Butler KS-Sumner KS-
743 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK...SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTHEASTERN
SUMNER COUNTIES...

At 743 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Leon, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Andover, Augusta, Mulvane, Rose Hill, Douglass, Belle
Plaine, Leon, Downtown Wichita, Eastborough, East Wichita, Eisenhower
National Airport, Northeast Wichita, Mcconnell Air Force Base, South
Wichita, Santa Fe Lake, Augusta Municipal Airport, Oaklawn and Jabara
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 9734 3757 9721 3762 9752 3775 9731
      3777 9682 3763 9673 3747 9711 3748 9715
      3746 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 232DEG 20KT 3772 9684 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LAWSON

323 
WWUS53 KICT 180054
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
754 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

KSC015-173-191-180103-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190418T0100Z/
Sedgwick KS-Butler KS-Sumner KS-
754 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEDGWICK...
SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER AND NORTHEASTERN SUMNER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
800 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3737 9734 3757 9721 3762 9752 3775 9731
      3777 9682 3763 9673 3747 9711 3748 9715
      3746 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 225DEG 34KT 3778 9676 

$$

LAWSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

There is a trough moving through the Plains with its southern extent
moving into the Panhandles. A frontal boundary is slowly making its
way southeast and is currently stretched from near Amarillo to Pratt
to Hutchinson to Salina. Dewpoints have increased to the upper 50s
to lower 60s across south central and southeast Kansas this
afternoon with even higher values into Oklahoma thanks to decent
moisture transport. There is a dryline associated with this system
that is currently through the Texas Panhandle and into west central
Texas. Convective initiation has begun at this intersection point in
the Texas Panhandle within the past couple of hours. It is
developing northeast along that boundary. The expectation is that
this will continue through the next few hours.

Discrete cells would likely develop across south central/southeast
Kansas as the instability increases. Mid level clouds have slightly
hampered destabilization with model soundings showing a weak cap in
place. Currently there appears to be 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE with still
decent CIN and 30-40kts of effective bulk shear. Low and mid level
lapse rates of 7-8.5 support large hail potential at least initially
especially with increasing instability. The boundary is expected to
fill in leading to a more linear storm mode which would decrease the
large hail potential and become more of wind threat. Development is
anticipated in the next few hours in Kansas. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a mesoscale discussion with a watch likely in
the next couple of hours. Please see their discussion if you would
like additional information.

-Pearce

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

The main focus in the short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon/early evening in south
central and southeast Kansas. As the afternoon progresses,
forcing for ascent and instability are expected to continue
increasing as the cap erodes along and ahead of the cold front.
Thus, expect convective initiation to increase in coverage across
northern Texas, western Oklahoma, and into south central Kansas
over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis and latest CAMs suggest
that the timing from the previous forecast still looks good, with
discrete cells beginning to form sometime near 23-00z and
increasing in coverage for a few hours after that. The primary
threat, at least in in initial development this evening, will be
the potential for large hail and damaging winds. See the
Mesoscale Discussion above for more details.

After midnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, the threat
for severe storms will be winding down in south central Kansas as
the axis of greatest low level moisture flux convergence and CAPE
shifts into southeast Kansas. By this time, the primary storm mode
should transition to become more linear. Bulk shear will still be
plentiful with models suggesting values in excess of 60kts in spots.
However, with bulk shear vectors oriented parallel to the frontal
boundary and a more linear storm mode, thinking damaging wind will
be the primary threat overnight in southeast Kansas though storms
early in this period do have the potential to produce large hail as
well. Localized flooding from heavy rain will remain a possibility
behind the front overnight in south central Kansas with the flooding
threat slowly transitioning to southeast Kansas during the early
morning hours. By mid-morning, the front and associated low pressure
will have moved well east of the area and rain chances will come to
an end in southeast Kansas.

Elsewhere tomorrow, as the upper trough digs across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley, diurnal showers will be possible in central and
south central Kansas. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
with some weak instability present during the afternoon, but not
expecting any severe storms with this activity. Otherwise, expect
cooler temperatures than were observed today, though they will be
close to normal for the time of year.

Overnight tomorrow night, the deep upper trough axis will make its
way east of mid-America and much drier air will allow for clear
skies Friday as high pressure moves across the Southern Plains. By
Saturday, a southerly wind regime will return to central, south
central, and southeast Kansas and allow temperatures to warm up into
the upper 70s to near 80 across the area, setting up for a nice
start to the weekend.

-Vaughan

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Heading into the first half of next week, a more unsettled patter
will return to the area with several upper shortwaves bringing
multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the period.
The first of these looks to be Sunday afternoon-night and then again
on Monday evening-Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Though some stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the
chances for severe storms continues to look rather low at this time.
Temperatures throughout this period will be right around normal for
the time of year. Of note, by day 7 (Wednesday) there is quite a bit
of disagreement amongst models regarding the timing of mid-week
precip chances. This also could have a big impact on forecast
temperatures (for example, the Canadian suggests highs in the 50s
on Wednesday and holding on to precip much longer, while the
quicker ECMWF pushes temperatures into the 70s). For now, have
taken a "middle-of-the-road" approach and used a blended
solution, but note some variation should be expected over the next
several days as confidence in this period is rather low at this
point.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Storm initiation and convection will be the main concerns for
this forecast period for KHUT, KICT and KCNU. A cold front is on a
southward track through central Kansas. Convective initiation is
expected along and near this front in the latter part of the
afternoon and evening. Timing of the initiation or vicinity
wording is very similar to the previous issuance. Tempo groups of
TSRA have been added to account for the increasing
confidence/potential for thunderstorms to impact those sites. The
exact timing may need to be adjusted with amendments or the next
issuance depending on observational data. Heavy rain and lower
ceilings will drop the category to MVFR even possibly IFR for a
window of time. Vicinity showers may occur for KGBD and KSLN thus
this was inserted, but the better chances are further south as
discussed. Chanute will be the only site to have potential
thunderstorms until near 12Z. Otherwise the activity should move
east by even 6Z. A quicker exit may occur.

The cold front will result in a transition of the winds to the
north which has already occurred in central Kansas. At the end of
this forecast period, the winds are anticipated to increase for
everywhere but KICT and KCNU. Sustained speeds of 15 to 20kts are
anticipated with gusts up to 30kts. Please stay tuned for updates
on this forecast.

-Pearce

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

With widespread rainfall expected this afternoon and overnight
across south central and southeast Kansas, fire weather concerns
over the next few days will be minimal. Heading into Saturday,
temperatures will warm back up but recent rainfall should prevent
any major fire weather concerns. Additional rainfall chances next
week will keep fire danger in check through at least mid-week.

-Vaughan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  66  42  68 /  80  20  10   0
Hutchinson      48  65  40  68 /  60  20  10   0
Newton          47  64  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
ElDorado        49  65  41  66 /  80  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  66  42  67 /  80  20  10   0
Russell         43  65  39  69 /  10  30   0   0
Great Bend      44  65  38  69 /  20  30   0   0
Salina          47  65  40  68 /  20  30  10   0
McPherson       47  65  39  67 /  50  20  10   0
Coffeyville     51  65  43  67 /  90  30  10   0
Chanute         50  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0
Iola            50  63  42  65 /  80  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...VJP
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this evening and tonight across south
central and southeast Kansas. Some of these storms are expected to
be strong to severe. The main threats will be large hail up to golf
ball size and damaging wind gusts to 65 mph. See the latest Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for details.

Locally heavy rainfall will also occur this evening across south
central and southeast Kansas which may result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may linger in southeast
Kansas early Thursday morning, but should end by mid-morning.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Kansas
Thursday
afternoon, but are not expected to be strong or severe.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will return to the forecast
Easter Sunday afternoon through early next week. A few strong
storms will be possible though the risk for organized severe
weather appears low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this evening across south
central and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
644 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

KSZ069-180015-
Butler KS-
644 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT.

* At 643 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Leon...moving northeast at 20
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Leon and Beaumont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3767 9686 3779 9653 3758 9652 3754 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 232DEG 17KT 3762 9676

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          5 NW WELLINGTON         37.32N 97.46W
04/17/2019                   SUMNER             KS   STORM CHASER

            LANDSPOUT TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FROM 638P TO 642P.
            HAS NOW LIFTED.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
655 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             3 E LEON                37.69N 96.73W
04/17/2019  M0.88 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             ARGONIA                 37.27N 97.76W
04/17/2019  M0.75 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN. VIA KAKE TV

&&

BDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
701 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

KSZ069-180030-
Butler KS-
701 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 659 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Rose Hill...moving northeast at
  30 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Andover, Augusta, Rose Hill, Douglass and Augusta Municipal
  Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3766 9715 3774 9688 3755 9687 3747 9714
      3748 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 240DEG 24KT 3757 9712

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
04/17/2019  E1.00 INCH       BUTLER             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN IN ROSE HILL

&&

TVAUGHAN