Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
708 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

The main focus in the short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms beginning late this afternoon/early evening in south
central and southeast Kansas. As the afternoon progresses,
forcing for ascent and instability are expected to continue
increasing as the cap erodes along and ahead of the cold front.
Thus, expect convective initiation to increase in coverage across
northern Texas, western Oklahoma, and into south central Kansas
over the next few hours. Mesoanalysis and latest CAMs suggest
that the timing from the previous forecast still looks good, with
discrete cells beginning to form sometime near 23-00z and
increasing in coverage for a few hours after that. The primary
threat, at least in in initial development this evening, will be
the potential for large hail and damaging winds. See the
Mesoscale Discussion above for more details.

After midnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, the threat
for severe storms will be winding down in south central Kansas as
the axis of greatest low level moisture flux convergence and CAPE
shifts into southeast Kansas. By this time, the primary storm mode
should transition to become more linear. Bulk shear will still be
plentiful with models suggesting values in excess of 60kts in spots.
However, with bulk shear vectors oriented parallel to the frontal
boundary and a more linear storm mode, thinking damaging wind will
be the primary threat overnight in southeast Kansas though storms
early in this period do have the potential to produce large hail as
well. Localized flooding from heavy rain will remain a possibility
behind the front overnight in south central Kansas with the flooding
threat slowly transitioning to southeast Kansas during the early
morning hours. By mid-morning, the front and associated low pressure
will have moved well east of the area and rain chances will come to
an end in southeast Kansas.

Elsewhere tomorrow, as the upper trough digs across the Plains and
Mississippi Valley, diurnal showers will be possible in central and
south central Kansas. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
with some weak instability present during the afternoon, but not
expecting any severe storms with this activity. Otherwise, expect
cooler temperatures than were observed today, though they will be
close to normal for the time of year.

Overnight tomorrow night, the deep upper trough axis will make its
way east of mid-America and much drier air will allow for clear
skies Friday as high pressure moves across the Southern Plains. By
Saturday, a southerly wind regime will return to central, south
central, and southeast Kansas and allow temperatures to warm up into
the upper 70s to near 80 across the area, setting up for a nice
start to the weekend.

-Vaughan

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Heading into the first half of next week, a more unsettled patter
will return to the area with several upper shortwaves bringing
multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the period.
The first of these looks to be Sunday afternoon-night and then again
on Monday evening-Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Though some stronger storms cannot be ruled out, the
chances for severe storms continues to look rather low at this time.
Temperatures throughout this period will be right around normal for
the time of year. Of note, by day 7 (Wednesday) there is quite a bit
of disagreement amongst models regarding the timing of mid-week
precip chances. This also could have a big impact on forecast
temperatures (for example, the Canadian suggests highs in the 50s
on Wednesday and holding on to precip much longer, while the
quicker ECMWF pushes temperatures into the 70s). For now, have
taken a "middle-of-the-road" approach and used a blended
solution, but note some variation should be expected over the next
several days as confidence in this period is rather low at this
point.

-Vaughan

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

At 23Z (+)TSRA, a few of which are producing quarter-sized hail,
continue to fire across Harper, Nrn Sumner/extreme Srn Sedgwick,
to KEWK. The (+)TSRA are along & just behind a cold front that
extends from NW MO, thru KWLD, to between KAVK & KWDG. The TSRA
are movg NE ~25kts & will impact KICT til ~03Z. (+)TSRA will also
impact KCNU later this eve 02Z-05Z & may be SVR with quarter-sized
hail, a few gusts ~52kts & +RA that'll reduce vsbys to ~3SM. With
the front exiting SE KS 05-06Z as a rapidly deepening upper-deck
wave moves slowly E across C TX later tonight & Thu morning, the
TSRA would clear SE KS ~08Z. MVFR cigs from 1,500-2,500ft are no
doubt certain where +TSRA occur. As the front pushes SE, winds
that'll shift to the N would increase to 17-22kts with gusts ~30
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

With widespread rainfall expected this afternoon and overnight
across south central and southeast Kansas, fire weather concerns
over the next few days will be minimal. Heading into Saturday,
temperatures will warm back up but recent rainfall should prevent
any major fire weather concerns. Additional rainfall chances next
week will keep fire danger in check through at least mid-week.

-Vaughan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    49  66  42  68 /  80  20  10   0
Hutchinson      48  65  40  68 /  50  20  10   0
Newton          47  64  40  66 /  70  20  10   0
ElDorado        49  65  41  66 /  80  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   50  66  42  67 /  80  20  10   0
Russell         43  65  39  69 /  10  30   0   0
Great Bend      44  65  38  69 /  10  30   0   0
Salina          47  65  40  68 /  20  30  10   0
McPherson       47  65  39  67 /  40  20  10   0
Coffeyville     51  65  43  67 /  80  30  10   0
Chanute         50  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0
Iola            50  63  42  65 /  80  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    51  64  43  66 /  80  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...TAV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-182200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this evening and tonight across south
central and southeast Kansas. Some of these storms are expected to
be strong to severe. The main threats will be large hail up to golf
ball size and damaging wind gusts to 65 mph. See the latest Severe
Thunderstorm Watch for details.

Locally heavy rainfall will also occur this evening across south
central and southeast Kansas which may result in localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may linger in southeast
Kansas early Thursday morning, but should end by mid-morning.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Kansas
Thursday
afternoon, but are not expected to be strong or severe.

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will return to the forecast
Easter Sunday afternoon through early next week. A few strong
storms will be possible though the risk for organized severe
weather appears low for now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this evening across south
central and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
746 PM CDT WED APR 17 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             CLEARWATER              37.51N 97.50W
04/17/2019  M0.88 INCH       Sedgwick           KS   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

BDK

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