River Flood Warning 188, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
109 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Updated to lower storm chances today.

Main reason for update was to lower shower and storm chances.
Overnight MCS has pushed down into AR/eastern OK with widespread
high clouds over eastern KS. Water vapor imagery shows the upper
low spinning over northeast CO/sw Nebraska. Current thinking is
that scattered storms will increase over northwest KS due to cool
mid level temps associated with upper low, with this activity
approaching our western flank generally after 21z. Will leave at
least some slight chances for storms area wide as low level
moisture remains decent even behind the MCS with any afternoon
sunshine allowing a few storms to develop. In addition, weak cold
front/surface trough will also continue pushing east through the
area. However, confidence in widespread storms has decreased for
today.

UPDATE Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The overnight convective complex really worked over the atmosphere
over most of southern KS, with the unstable airmass now pushed well
south into OK.  The question is how much the atmosphere will
recover this afternoon into this evening.  Initial thought is to go
dry this afternoon, but a vigorous shortwave currently located over
SE CO, will make its way across northern KS this afternoon, and
evening.  So any recovery at all may lead to additional to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over portions of central
KS as the lift increases ahead of this shortwave. Latest short range
models show at least 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE for the afternoon
hours.  So will keep pops in place for this chance. Also uncertain
about any additional heavy rainfall threat, as scattered nature of
any new convection will make potential very limited.  For now will
keep the flash flood watch in place, but could see portions of the
watch cancelled later today.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Latest surface analysis reveals a weak surface low near the
Hutchinson area with a frontal boundary extending from north
central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. Convection has
developed in the vicinity of this low and boundary, and is
expected to continue over the next several hours. Additionally, in
western Kansas storms have clustered into a band and are expected
to continue to organize and track eastward across south central
and eventually southeast Kansas throughout the rest of the early
morning hours this morning. Latest CAMS also support this
thinking, showing a multi-cell cluster of storms pushing through
the area through mid-morning.

RAP mesoscale environmental analysis from south central Kansas
this morning reveals MUCAPE of around 1900J/kg and effective bulk
wind difference (EBWD) as high as 30-45kts. Additionally,
700-500mb lapse rates in the vicinity of 7C/km, along with
significant hail parameter around 1.0 and LHIP forecast to range
anywhere from 5 to 11 all will be supportive of a scattered large
hail threat with some very large hail up to around 2+ inches in
diameter not out of the question in spots. Meso-analysis reveals a
more marginal damaging wind threat, though modest DCAPE and
SBCAPE along with a more linear storm mode will support at least
some scatted wind gusts up to around 60mph+ or so. As a result, a
severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect through mid-morning
across south central and southeast Kansas.

Perhaps the most notable threat, however, will be the potential
for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Model precipitable water
(PW) values ranging from 1.75-1.90 are well above the 90th
percentile of climatology. Additionally, a favorable environment
for training storms and very large amounts of moisture transport
at both 925mb and 850mb all support efficient rain makers. Given
the increasing concern for flood and flash flood potential across
the forecast area, QPF through 18z today was increased across
portions of the forecast area and trended towards the latest WPC
QPF guidance. A flash flood watch remains in effect through this
evening.

During the day today, the cold front is expected to progress
eastward to be located across southeast Kansas. Thinking that
lingering showers and storms will be in the vicinity most of the
day today, but given the worked-over environment, thinking that
the severe threat will wane sometime during the morning this
morning. However, there will likely be some recovery throughout
the day, with very large amounts of instability in southeast
Kansas by this afternoon and evening. Therefore, think severe
convective development will re-ignite along the front in southeast
Kansas later today. The good news is that this convection should
be fairly short-lived before tracking eastward out of the forecast
area late evening and overnight tonight. Once again, the main
threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Flooding and
heavy will remain a concern until convection exits southeast
Kansas. Depending on exactly how much rain falls and where, river
flooding will likely increase across the area today as well. Be on
the lookout for the latest river flood warnings and statements or
the latest.

In the wake of this exiting front, high pressure is expected to
build into the region from southeast Colorado and southwest
Kansas, drying things back out for the day on Monday. Temperatures
today and tomorrow will be below climo given the cold front and
fairly widespread showers and storms. Current thinking is that
highs will struggle to reach the mid 80s area-wide today, though
central Kansas should remain only in the mid-70s. Temperatures
will likely rebound a little tomorrow, with a weak westerly flow
regime returning to the area.

Tuesday will likely remain mostly dry as well, though models do
indicate that a quick-hitting shortwave moving across the Central
Plains could bring brief showers and storms to the area during the
evening, though confidence in this remains low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Heading into the middle of the week, temperatures will rebound to
near-normal values with afternoon highs reaching back into the low
to mid-90s. By Wednesday and Thursday, mid- and upper level
ridging returns, which will mostly keep central, south central,
and southeast Kansas dry throughout the remainder of the week. A
spotty hit-or-miss shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out,
but the chances are low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Main aviation concerns will be storms today along with some lower
clouds.

Overnight MCS has pushed into AR and eastern OK. Meanwhile. a weak
cold front/surface trough stretches in a north/south fashion just
west of I-135. Some MVFR ceilings have developed just behind the
front over central KS and should persist for a few more hours. Not
out of the question some of these lower cigs may make it further
east today. Scattered storms are expected over northwest KS and
may start to reach our western flank after 21z, however confidence
isn't high enough at this point to insert into TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    81  60  83  64 /  80  20  10   0
Hutchinson      78  57  83  63 /  50  20  10   0
Newton          79  58  82  63 /  90  20  10   0
ElDorado        81  60  81  62 /  80  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   83  60  83  62 / 100  20  10   0
Russell         75  53  83  62 /  30  20  10   0
Great Bend      75  54  83  62 /  20  20  10   0
Salina          79  57  83  64 /  60  20  10   0
McPherson       78  56  83  63 /  70  20  10   0
Coffeyville     84  63  83  63 /  80  50  10   0
Chanute         83  63  81  62 /  80  40  10   0
Iola            83  62  81  62 /  70  40  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    83  63  82  63 /  80  50  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
112 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241330-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
112 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

River flooding is also forecast or ongoing at various forecast
points. Please refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
the most up to date information.

Scattered storms will be possible this afternoon into the early
evening hours. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
quarter size hail, 60 mph wind and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

River flooding will likely continue through at least the first half
of the week at various river forecast points. See the latest flood
warnings and statements for the most up to date information.

A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday
evening, but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Lawson

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
141 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     FLOOD            2 NW EARLTON            37.61N 95.49W
06/23/2019                   NEOSHO             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER REPORTED OVER CHASE RD BETWEEN 160TH
            AND 180TH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLOOD            1 E PARSONS             37.34N 95.25W
06/23/2019                   LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD ON 26,000 AND NORTH 10TH STREET. ROAD
            CLOSED.

&&

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
204 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FLOOD            2 WSW BARTLETT          37.05N 95.24W
06/23/2019                   LABETTE            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            US HIGHWAY 166 FLOODED AT LAKE CREEK. THIS SECTION US
            HIGHWAY 166 IS CLOSED.

&&

METZGER