River Flood Warning 170, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary located across
portions of central KS with a weak surface low located near just to
the NE of KDDC. Analysis also shows a weak warm front across located
just to the south of I-70 with east to southeast winds to the south
of the warm front.  A very unstable airmass is located just to the
east and south of the low, with SBCAPE values of 3500-5000 j/kg.
main shortwave is located over the western Rockies. But an initial
impulse in the SW flow currently over the TX panhandle will lift NE.
this shortwave will help erode the capping inversion late this
afternoon, with explosive convective development across south
central KS expected between 22-00z.  Think main convective
initiation will be along the western edge of the forecast area,
along a KPTT to KGBD line.  Bulk shear is modest around 20-30 kts
but a very unstable airmass will be enough for widespread severe
storms to develop.  Expecting some discrete storms initially, and
even some supercells given the backed low level winds ahead of the
low.  Given the tall updrafts expected, very large hail looks
possible, with damaging winds as well.  Am a little concerned about
a tornado threat across central KS near the triple point of the cold
front, warm front combination near KGBD.  So cannot rule out a
tornado or two during the late afternoon, during the early stages
when the storms remain discrete.  As the evening progresses and SW
low level jet increases, expect the storms to become more numerous
and multicellular, with the severe threat transitioning into a
damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also
become a great concern late this evening, SW low level jet doesn't
veer to the east, which will lead to redevelopment of storms across
south central KS, with training of storms leading to a couple of
rounds of storms.  Precipitable water (PW) values of 160-180 percent
of normal will lead to very efficient rainfall producers, with some
areas picking an inch or two of rainfall in a short period of time.

If the initial storms can produce a cold pool and shift into SE KS,
think additional storm development may occur again over portions of
central KS after midnight, and possibly produce another convective
complex of storms to the NW of the evening round of storms. A flash
flood watch has already been issued for the flash flooding threat,
but will expand the watch to along a KGBD to KSLN line with this
second round of storms in mind into early Sunday morning.

The slow moving cold front is expected to stall across the forecast
area for late tonight into Sun, with lingering convection expected
to continue for portions of the area into Sun morning. Atmosphere is
expected to be pretty worked over on Sun morning, but as the
daylight hours progress on Sun, the atmosphere will recover enough
for the extreme instability to again reside over areas along and
east of the Kansas Turnpike.  The main mid/upper trough is expected
to move across KS for Sun afternoon, with lift associated with this
shortwave expected to help develop another round of strong/severe
storms for Sun afternoon/evening, especially for areas east of the
Turnpike where the extreme instability will be the highest. Bulk
shear is actually higher on Sun than today, So may actually have to
keep an an eye on Sun afternoon, as the better shear may increase
the very large hail and possibly the tornado threat. With all the
instability and very high PW values, think flash flooding will again
be a threat, so plan on keeping the flash flood watch going into Sun
night as well. Expect River flooding will once again become an issue
by the end of the weekend.

With all the showers and storms expected on Sun, will see cooler
temperatures across the area in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The shortwave looks to move well east of the area for the beginning
of the week, with mid level ridging expected to build across the
plains.  This will allow the forecast area to dry out and begin
another warming trend towards the middle of the week. This looks
like a typical summer time pattern, with dry weather expected for
Mon and most of Tue.  Cannot rule out an isolated storm or two
during peak heating of the day for Tue evening as the PW axis shifts
into southern KS. But overall chances for storms look low for much
of next week. Have kept the forecast mostly dry throughout the work
week with near-normal temperatures with as afternoon highs top out
in the vicinity of the 90 degree mark.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of south
central and much of southeast KS late this evening while post-
frontal MVFR cigs were impacting portions of central and much of
western Kansas. The HRRR in addition to other CAMs continue to
suggest that another line of storms entering southwest Kansas will
race eastward impacting central and eastern KS late tonight.
Although a few strong or marginally severe storms will remain
possible, heavy rain and flooding may become the primary threats.
Flight categories will be reduced under the heaviest activity with
IFR/LIFR likely. Improving flight categories are anticipated by
15Z or sooner as the activity drifts east of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  82  59  82 /  60  40  20  10
Hutchinson      65  80  57  82 /  60  40  20  10
Newton          65  81  58  81 /  60  60  20  10
ElDorado        66  81  59  81 /  70  50  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   67  82  60  82 /  70  50  20  10
Russell         60  73  53  82 /  70  40  20  10
Great Bend      60  74  54  82 /  70  40  10  10
Salina          64  79  57  83 /  70  50  20  10
McPherson       64  80  56  82 /  60  40  20  10
Coffeyville     68  83  63  82 /  80  60  50  10
Chanute         67  82  62  81 /  80  60  40  10
Iola            67  82  61  81 /  80  70  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    68  82  62  82 /  80  60  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KSZ047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-232015-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and this evening, especially across southern Kansas.
Storms are likely to be severe. The main threats in strongest storms
will be hail up to around two inches in diameter and damaging winds
to 70 mph, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon hours. In addition to the severe weather threat, flash
flooding will be possible as thunderstorms that develop are likely
to produce very heavy rainfall rates. Rises along area rivers are
also possible. A flash flood watch has been issued for most of the
area for this flooding threat.

River flooding is ongoing along the Cow Creek across portions of
Rice and Reno counties. Please refer to the latest flood warnings
and statements for the most up to date information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe storms are expected again Sunday afternoon and
evening, especially in southeast Kansas. Similar to Saturday, the
main threats will be hail up to around 2 inches in diameter, wind
gusts to 70mph, and flash flooding. A brief tornado cannot be ruled
out. The flash flood watch extends until Sunday night.

River flooding will likely continue through at least Sunday along
the Cow Creek across portions of Rice and Reno counties. See the
latest flood warnings and statements for the most up to date
information.

A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday
evening, but confidence is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

TAV/Ketcham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ053-070-230600-
Greenwood KS-Chase KS-
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 100 AM CDT.

* At 1240 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles south of Cottonwood
  Falls...moving northeast at 30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Matfield Green.

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3817 9618 3806 9649 3821 9661
      3838 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 237DEG 28KT 3818 9648

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ070-230615-
Greenwood KS-
1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Central Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 115 AM CDT.

* At 1242 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Eureka...moving
  northeast at 30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hamilton, Eureka City Lake, Thrall and Eureka Airport.

LAT...LON 3781 9643 3790 9650 3812 9625 3793 9596
      3792 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 237DEG 28KT 3790 9639

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ047>051-067-230630-
Ellsworth KS-Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Barton KS-Saline KS-
1256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 130 AM CDT.

* At 1254 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Salina to near Raymond...and moving northeast at 15 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Lyons, Sterling, Kanopolis, Marquette, Little River, Chase,
  Assaria, Geneseo, Brookville, Smolan, Alden, Lorraine, New Cambria,
  Raymond, Falun, Glendale, Frederick, Salina Airport and Silica.

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3883 9737 3797 9847 3826 9847
      3826 9866 3887 9797 3887 9793 3891 9793
      3896 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0555Z 201DEG 13KT 3883 9769 3822 9841

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
130 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ047>051-067-082-230700-
Ellsworth KS-Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Barton KS-Saline KS-
Kingman KS-
130 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Western Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  Western McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Southeastern Barton County in central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 200 AM CDT.

* At 129 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along a line
  extending from near New Cambria to near Zenith...and moving
  northeast at 20 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Mcpherson, Lyons, Lindsborg, Sterling, Nickerson,
  Kanopolis, Marquette, Little River, Chase, Arlington, Assaria,
  Gypsum, Turon, Geneseo, Brookville, Sylvia, Smolan, Alden and
  Windom.

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3867 9737 3763 9846 3826 9847
      3826 9865 3896 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 226DEG 19KT 3886 9754 3798 9845

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
200 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ048>052-067-068-082-230730-
Ellsworth KS-Reno KS-Rice KS-McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-
Saline KS-Kingman KS-
200 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Western Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Saline County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 158 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles
  west of Durham to 5 miles southeast of South Hutchinson...and
  moving northeast at 30 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Salina, Hutchinson, Mcpherson, Lyons, Hesston, Lindsborg, Kingman,
  Hillsboro, South Hutchinson, Sterling, Moundridge, Inman, Buhler,
  Haven, Nickerson, Burrton, Galva, Canton, Pretty Prairie and
  Marquette.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3861 9737 3861 9693 3858 9693
      3791 9766 3791 9770 3787 9770 3780 9778
      3750 9846 3820 9847 3896 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 222DEG 24KT 3852 9739 3800 9785

BUTLER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ051-052-067>069-083-230800-
Reno KS-Butler KS-McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-Sedgwick KS-
230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Reno County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Eastern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northwestern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 228 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Durham to near Goessel to near Haven...and moving east at 30 mph.

* Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Newton, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire, Goddard,
  Hesston, Maize, Hillsboro, Halstead, Marion, North Newton,
  Moundridge, Sedgwick, Colwich, Haven, Peabody, Burrton, Garden
  Plain and Mount Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3767 9781 3773 9781 3773 9791 3783 9807
      3827 9755 3861 9745 3861 9693 3852 9693
      3852 9682 3851 9682 3808 9685 3754 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 287DEG 26KT 3852 9725 3818 9732 3786 9774

BUTLER