Tornado Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1123 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...Mesoscale Discussion...
Latest surface analysis has a warm front stretching from NE of
Austin to just north of College Station to Nacogdoches in E TX.
Surface low tracking near Austin should also move along the warm
front as it pushes north slowly. Tornadic supercell near Hearne
north of College Station seems to be riding along this boundary.
Also watching storm in Houston County near Crockett as it nears
better low level shear near the boundary. Storm already has
rotation and severe - monitoring closely.

Environment increasing just south of warm front for higher severe
potential. Latest model guidance from WRF/HRRR continues to
highlight areas north of Brenham to Conroe to Cleveland for severe
weather this afternoon. Instability increasing south of boundary
with clouds clearing allowing for heating. ML CAPE up to around
2000 to 3000 J/kg in warm sector. 0-1km shear up to around
20-30kts near the boundary supporting rotating updrafts. Look for
tornado watch (issued during the writing of this AFD) to be issued
for a portion of the area. Deep layer shear will only increase as
300 mb jet moves over the area. Surface low matches well with left
exit region of the jet with large scale ascent eroding any
capping. Morning soundings showed very little cap and AMDAR
soundings over Houston showed no cap with heating to around 80F at
the surface. Look for severe threats to remain north of Houston at
this time but Houston will be on the edge. We will need to closely
monitor the southern edge of convection this afternoon as a front
moves into the area between 1-5PM.

Overpeck

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)  77  47  69  49  79 /  80  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)          81  50  71  51  77 /  60  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)        77  53  70  61  72 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...Overpeck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436-437-141200-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system will move through the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected in the morning through the afternoon hours, and some
of the thunderstorms could become strong or severe. Primary weather
hazards will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible too. Wind advisories
might be needed both ahead of the storm system today and behind the
storm system tonight and on into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Wind advisories might be needed on Sunday morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorm development might be possible around midweek in association
with the next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ438-141200-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system will move through the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected mainly in the morning through early afternoon hours,
and some of the thunderstorms could become strong or severe. Strong
rip currents will be possible, and elevated tides could result in minor
coastal flooding. Elevated seas and moderate to strong winds both
ahead of the system and behind the system are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Elevated seas and moderate to strong offshore winds are expected on
Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorm development might be possible
around midweek in association with the next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

TXZ163-164-177-178-131615-
San Jacinto TX-Walker TX-Houston TX-Trinity TX-
1024 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1023 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Trinity, or 20 miles southeast of Austonio, moving north at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinity, Lovelady, Riverside, Kennard, Sebastopol, Weches and
Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3157 9525 3157 9515 3156 9514 3155 9515
      3154 9514 3152 9510 3150 9509 3149 9511
      3147 9510 3146 9507 3147 9506 3144 9504
      3144 9501 3081 9526 3084 9552 3158 9538
      3159 9528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 194DEG 42KT 3101 9535

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W KENNARD             31.36N  95.20W
04/13/2019                   HOUSTON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF KENNARD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1900049

KP