Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.AVIATION...
Based on current extrapolated timing, did make some tweaks to the
TAFS to account for the slightly slower arrival times of the main
line of storms just moving into our W/NW counties. Isolated acti-
vity ahead of this line should remain along/north of I-10 (closer
to the warm front). Will also keep stronger +TSRA/wind gusts over
the northern sites...tapering them off going the coast. Tightened
pressure gradient should keep strong/occasionally gusty west wind
pattern in place tonight behind these storms. Winds will be shif-
ting more N/NW by early Sun morning as the main low pressure sys-
tem moves further away from the region. VFR conditions to prevail
by this evening on into tomorrow. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019/

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...Mesoscale Discussion...
Latest surface analysis has a warm front stretching from NE of
Austin to just north of College Station to Nacogdoches in E TX.
Surface low tracking near Austin should also move along the warm
front as it pushes north slowly. Tornadic supercell near Hearne
north of College Station seems to be riding along this boundary.
Also watching storm in Houston County near Crockett as it nears
better low level shear near the boundary. Storm already has
rotation and severe - monitoring closely.

Environment increasing just south of warm front for higher severe
potential. Latest model guidance from WRF/HRRR continues to
highlight areas north of Brenham to Conroe to Cleveland for severe
weather this afternoon. Instability increasing south of boundary
with clouds clearing allowing for heating. ML CAPE up to around
2000 to 3000 J/kg in warm sector. 0-1km shear up to around
20-30kts near the boundary supporting rotating updrafts. Look for
tornado watch (issued during the writing of this AFD) to be issued
for a portion of the area. Deep layer shear will only increase as
300 mb jet moves over the area. Surface low matches well with left
exit region of the jet with large scale ascent eroding any
capping. Morning soundings showed very little cap and AMDAR
soundings over Houston showed no cap with heating to around 80F at
the surface. Look for severe threats to remain north of Houston at
this time but Houston will be on the edge. We will need to closely
monitor the southern edge of convection this afternoon as a front
moves into the area between 1-5PM.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      77  47  69  49  79 /  80  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              81  50  71  51  77 /  60  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            77  53  70  61  72 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
     Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
     Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
     to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436-437-141200-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system will move through the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected in the morning through the afternoon hours, and some
of the thunderstorms could become strong or severe. Primary weather
hazards will be isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail and frequent
lightning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible too. Wind advisories
might be needed both ahead of the storm system today and behind the
storm system tonight and on into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Wind advisories might be needed on Sunday morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorm development might be possible around midweek in association
with the next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ438-141200-
Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-
Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM-
449 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A storm system will move through the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
can be expected mainly in the morning through early afternoon hours,
and some of the thunderstorms could become strong or severe. Strong
rip currents will be possible, and elevated tides could result in minor
coastal flooding. Elevated seas and moderate to strong winds both
ahead of the system and behind the system are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Elevated seas and moderate to strong offshore winds are expected on
Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorm development might be possible
around midweek in association with the next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible today.

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