Tornado Warning 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

229 
WWUS52 KGSP 111746
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

SCC021-111755-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190511T1800Z/
Cherokee SC-
146 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3518 8148 3519 8151 3524 8150 3528 8139
      3518 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 262DEG 28KT 3521 8146 

$$

NCC045-111800-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190511T1800Z/
Cleveland NC-
146 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY...
    
At 145 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 6 miles southeast of Shelby, or near Grover, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Cleveland County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8148 3519 8151 3524 8150 3528 8139
      3518 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 262DEG 28KT 3521 8146 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

RM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of an upper storm system will give high chances for
showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.  The passage of a
major cold front Sunday night will dry-out the atmosphere and give
fair weather past mid-week, with a slight chance for rain late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1050 AM: The initial round of convection moving across the
area this morning has a few thunderstorms, mainly across the western
CWFA. Some of these storms will be strong with gusty winds. There
may also be heavy rain with the storms, and also with some of the
showers moving across the piedmont. This area should move to the
east by about 1 PM. However, a second round of storms will be
developing or moving in from the west about that time. The guidance
has shifted a little later with the second round, so may have to
adjust that timing. By then, the atmosphere will have recovered
enough for CAPE values to approach 1500 J/kg, especially along and
south of I-85. With good low level shear in place, isolated severe
storms remain possible. There is also the threat of isolated
flooding given the moist air mass and potential for repeated storms.

Rather pessimistic-looking fcst for today and tonight, with guidance
suggesting waves of shower and thunderstorm activity moving across
the fcst area. In the wake of our early morning activity, we should
realize the development of some instability through the mid/late
morning. We could see the first organized wave of convection move
across the region in the late morning through mid afternoon as an
MCV moves northeast from the nrn Gulf Coast region. Would this be
enough to provide some organization and severe storm threat? Hard
to say right now...as guidance suggests poor lapse rates and
fairly weak CAPE, but some low level shear. Yet another wave is
possible in the evening. The entire fcst area has been placed in
the Marginal Risk on the Day 1 Outlook and I agree that it looks
marginal at best, but we won't rule out a few severe storms in all
this mess. What looks better is the chance for locally heavy rain
and elevated flash flood risk as the precipitable water increases
and warm cloud depth deepens this afternoon and tonight. A Watch is
not anticipated at this time because confidence is not high enough
for any particular part of the fcst area, but this certainly bears
watching. Temps will be cooler today compared to yesterday and mild
once again tonight because of the periodic showers and extensive
cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 2:30am EDT Saturday:

Rain will continue on Sunday as upper long wave trough continues to
dig into the central CONUS, with another half inch of precipitation
anticipated, and up to an inch of new rain in the mountains.  While
MLCAPE will be subdued due to periods of rain keeping CAPE from
building-up, deep layer shear improves on Sunday as upper waves gets
closer, with 40 to 45kts of deep layer shear likely.  CAPE, as
usual, is more difficult to forecast, but GFS indications have 500
to 1000 j/kg of MLCAPE Sunday afternoon.  Latest round of CAMs is
not too optimistic about strong updrafts Sunday afternoon in the GSP
area, but high shear will lead to some rotation in anything that
develops, helping to justify the SPC slight risk outlook for the
area. Forecast soundings look very wet through a deep layer through
Sunday, suggesting heavy rain with some flooding issues as possibly
a greater threat than severe convective weather.

Chances for rain drop considerably with FROPA Sunday night as
moisture is advected southeastward behind the front by northwesterly
winds. Dewpoints are expected to drop 10 degrees by early Monday,
and another 10 degrees by Tuesday.  Monday will, thus, have clearing
conditions and be somewhat windy, with high temperatures struggling
to reach the mid to upper 70s in piedmont areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3am EDT Saturday:  Extended forecast is fairly quiet, with
any precipitation holding-off until Thursday afternoon (per the GFS
version of events).  Tuesday begins with  upper trough east of the
area and surface high pressure increasing from the west. Tuesday and
Wednesday will be clear and dry with low dewpoints giving lows below
normal and highs near normal Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wednesday
morning looks to be the coolest point in the forecast with lows near
50 in piedmont areas, and down to the low 40s at higher elevations.
With lows that cold, some surface frost is not out-of-the question
at some mountain locations.  GFS has a front coming down from the
north with some shortwave energy embedded in the west side of the
eastern longwave trough. Despite dry conditions, this is enough for
some chance of rain on Thursday, though  QPF is light. The EC model
keeps the ridge to the west stronger and has a much less active
frontal area for the Thursday chance of showers.  In any case, the
amount of rain is in the range of a trace to a tenth of an inch on
Thursday, with the ridge becoming more dominant Friday and Saturday,
which stay dry and clear.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Got a busy 24 hours planned out. The area of
showers and storms passing over the area will keep restrictions in
place into early afternoon. There are also restrictions from low
stratus where convection is absent. After this area moves through,
there could be additional showers or thunderstorms at any time at
any point. The convection-allowing models hint at waves of
thunderstorm activity throughout the day and into Saturday night.
Have handled the next wave with another TEMPO for the early/mid
afternoon. Others get a PROB30 Saturday night. More details will be
filled in later as time/space allow. Wind direction should be SSE to
SSW through the period, apart from thunderstorm outflows.

Outlook: Numerous, mainly afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday, with associated restrictions
likely. Chances of convection and restrictions diminish with drier
air moving into the area Monday and Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       Med   75%     High 100%     Med   77%     High  90%
KGSP       High  83%     High 100%     Med   64%     High  80%
KAVL       High  96%     High 100%     High  85%     High  89%
KHKY       Med   68%     Med   75%     Med   71%     High  81%
KGMU       High  85%     High 100%     Med   66%     High  87%
KAND       High  85%     High  98%     Med   79%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WJM
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...PM/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms approaching severe limits this
afternoon with the primary threat being strong wind gusts. Isolated
flash flooding is also possible from the heaviest thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue into Sunday, with the greatest chance for
severe weather Sunday afternoon as vertical wind shear increases with
the advance of an upper-level storm system. Damaging winds are again
the main threat, but some hail is possible, and a brief, isolated
tornado can not be ruled-out.

River flooding will also become a concern for flood prone rivers,
in response to extended periods of moderate to heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ017-018-SCZ001-004-111245-
Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
758 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL STEPHENS...EAST CENTRAL
HABERSHAM AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM EDT...

At 758 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Toccoa, or 5 miles south of Tallulah Falls, moving
east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Tallulah Falls, Oconee State
Park, Tallulah Gorge State Park, Hollywood, Long Creek and
Turnerville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8342 3473 8340 3473 8338 3472 8335
      3474 8335 3476 8332 3478 8332 3489 8304
      3464 8292 3453 8344 3470 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 249DEG 32KT 3464 8339

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
828 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

NCZ064-065-SCZ002-003-111315-
Transylvania NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
828 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHEASTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM EDT...

At 828 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Brevard, or 5 miles southeast of Rosman, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Etowah, Slater-Marietta, Laurel Park, Rosman, Tigerville,
Table Rock State Park, Caesars Head State Park, Pleasant Ridge State
Park and Jones Gap State Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8281 3516 8292 3540 8253 3505 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1228Z 245DEG 31KT 3510 8276

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
916 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-007-111400-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
916 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON...POLK...
NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 AM EDT...

At 915 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Hendersonville, or near Saluda, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Columbus, Flat Rock, Landrum, Tryon, Saluda, Mill Spring, Tuxedo,
North Saluda Reservoir, Glassy Mountain and Lake Adger.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8215 3540 8213 3516 8198 3508 8242
      3524 8251 3540 8223 3540 8218 3541 8217
      3541 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 246DEG 37KT 3520 8238

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ010-NCZ062-111530-
Rabun GA-Macon NC-
1044 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN RABUN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM
EDT...

At 1043 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 6 miles southeast of Hiawassee, or 5 miles
northwest of Moccasin Creek State Park, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Clayton, Mountain City, Tiger, Dillard, Moccasin Creek State Park,
Black Rock Mountain State Park, Lake Burton and Otto.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8363 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8355
      3499 8355 3500 8348 3500 8352 3502 8352
      3505 8356 3508 8338 3482 8331 3484 8358
      3488 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1443Z 258DEG 20KT 3490 8366

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1231 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

NCZ068-508-510-SCZ007-008-111715-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Eastern Polk NC-Cherokee SC-
Spartanburg SC-
1231 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND...NORTHERN SPARTANBURG AND
NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1231 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Forest City to 10 miles
south of Columbus, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Boiling Springs NC, Mayo, Chesnee, Campobello, Mooresboro, Cowpens
National Battlefield, Lake Bowen, Lattimore, Cliffside and Henrietta.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 8156 3506 8178 3509 8219 3527 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 273DEG 19KT 3530 8192 3510 8215

RM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
117 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-111800-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-
117 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 9 miles northwest of Gaffney, or 4 miles northeast
of Cowpens National Battlefield, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Boiling Springs NC, Blacksburg, Patterson Springs,
Mooresboro, Earl, Cowpens National Battlefield, Grover, Lattimore and
Cliffside.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8182 3529 8185 3532 8146 3510 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 273DEG 19KT 3518 8175

RM