Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 PM EDT Sat May 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and moist cold front will maintain high chances for showers
and thunderstorms through Sunday. Dry Canadian high pressure will
build into the forecast area early Monday and persist through
the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM: Convective activity has blossomed across the area.
Increasing instability and good low level shear have lead to strong
thunderstorms and enough rotation for tornadoes to be possible. A
severe storm may also develop. These will be mainly along and south
of I-85. May be another round of convection this evening as another
MCV approaches from the southwest. Strong to severe storms may be
possible with the second wave as shear will continue but instability
will be on the wane. An isolated flood event cannot be ruled out
given the high rainfall rates and very moist atmosphere,

Expect storms to diminish overnight but showers will linger. Should
be another round of convection Sunday as yet another wave approaches
from the SW. PW values will be high and moderate instability and
shear are expected. Flooding is also possible again as the air mass
remains very moist and high rainfall rates develop in storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: The short term continues to show good
confidence as the op models agree well with the evolution of the
synoptic scale pattern. There are some notable differences btw the
GFS and the other models with the mass fields...however not enuf to
make large differences in the sensible weather fcst.

There will be a stg slug of upper energy pushing into the NC mtns
ahead of an ulvl low...which along with it/s own moisture and
residual moisture will maintain a precip potential across the mtns
thru the overnight. Sfc-based instability will weaken, yet mlvl LRs
will increase allowing for a few lingering general tstms. With the
incoming upper low...thicknesses will drop sigfnt/ly to arnd 555 dm
and support a cP airmass change which wont modify much thru the
period. Downward motion with the denser air will create some gusty
conds across the higher peaks Mon afternoon...but speeds look to
remain just below adv levels. Cooler BL td/s will also advect in
with readings in the mid to upper 40s both Mon and Tue. High amts of
insol will overcome lower thicknesses somewhat...so temps will reach
the lower to mid 70s making for very pleasant conds for late spring
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday: No sigfnt changes were made to the going
fcst over the ext range. The period will be dominated by nw/ly flow
aloft while a cP sfc high crosses the area and moves off the Atl
coast by Thu. On Wed...temps will still be held below normal as the
new airmass continues to modify. The morning lows will drop into the
l50s across the non/mtns and into the 40s over the mtn valleys. Max
temps will struggle to reach the m70s even in good sunshine.
Dewpoints will also be slow to recover thru the period...with
readings in the m40s Wed and only the m50s by Fri. So with continued
warming...the atmos will remain quite dry and pleasant at the sfc.
There looks to be a fairly strong ulvl wave reaching the mtns by Thu
evening. Moisture will be limited with this feature while static
stability remains high...so dont anticipate much more than few/sct
-shra with little precip accum.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms blossoming across
the area this afternoon. Have tried to time TEMPOs to cover most
likely time. Additional convection possible this evening...so they
may need to be extended. Expect low stratus to develop again
overnight with any vsby restrictions limited mainly to showers. Only
a slow improvement after daybreak with convection likely again
Sunday. Wind direction should be S to SW through the period, apart
from thunderstorm outflows.

Outlook: Numerous, mainly afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected Sunday, with associated restrictions
likely. Chances of convection and restrictions diminish with drier
air moving into the area Monday and Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     Med   75%     High  81%     High  84%
KGSP       Med   65%     Low   48%     Med   77%     Med   78%
KAVL       High  97%     Med   72%     Med   75%     Med   65%
KHKY       Med   69%     High  84%     High  86%     Med   65%
KGMU       Low   57%     Med   72%     High  84%     Med   76%
KAND       High 100%     High  82%     High  90%     Med   76%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
601 AM EDT Sat May 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance for thunderstorms approaching severe limits this
afternoon with the primary threat being strong wind gusts. Isolated
flash flooding is also possible from the heaviest thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue into Sunday, with the greatest chance for
severe weather Sunday afternoon as vertical wind shear increases with
the advance of an upper-level storm system. Damaging winds are again
the main threat, but some hail is possible, and a brief, isolated
tornado can not be ruled-out.

River flooding will also become a concern for flood prone rivers,
in response to extended periods of moderate to heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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