Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
827 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong system will bring more widespread storms to the area on
this afternoon and tonight, with severe weather possible. Dry
weather conditions will prevail through mid-week, with showers and
thunderstorms returning at the end of the week with an approaching
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM...Have allowed Tornado Watch #62 to expire over our NC
PIedmont. Meanwhile, a line of tstms along a sfc cold front
continues to slowly cross the western third of the FA within Severe
Tstm Watch #66. That watch was expanded a little east across the
rest of our NE GA zones and also Anderson and Greenville counties in
SC. The latest HRRR hints that an uptick in the convection is likely
over the next 2-3 hours, thus the watch expansion. From there,
instability should really start to decrease, and the low-level jet
max seems to be racing east ahead of the slow-moving convective
line. With that said, cannot rule out another Severe Tstm Watch at
02z (10 PM), if the convection continues to look robust. Otherwise,
the wind headlines look okay. Not seeing as many gusts in the 35-40
kt range as earlier, but plan to let the headlines ride. PoPs are
lining up well with the convection so far.

The front should clear the area to the east by around 06z. Gusty NW
winds and rapidly dropping temps expected behind the front in the
high terrain late overnight. Strong gradient winds along and
immediately behind the front will continue especially across the
mountains, but will let the High Wind Warning expire at 02z. Gap
winds overnight coming off the higher elevations may lead to some
minor wind concerns in the Piedmont. Moisture and CAA may result in
some light snow at the higher elevations, but not enough for an
advisory of any sort. Much cooler tonight behind the front, a good
20 degrees cooler than this morning's lows, and freezing in the
mountains (frost/freeze program not turned on up there). Strong CAA
will result in highs 5-10 degrees below normal on Monday, breezy
conditions continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday: Ridging aloft and high pressure near the
surface will provide quiet weather with mostly clear skies and light
winds through the short term, Monday night through Wednesday
evening. Surface high pressure over the region Monday night will
likely support below normal lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warming
nicely into the upper 50s (mtns) to 60s to near 70 east of the mtns
Tuesday under nearly full April sunshine. Surface high pressure
pushing off the east coast will allow weak southerly return flow
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This along with high clouds possibly
streaming through the region will support lows in the mid 40s to
possibly mid 50s by early Wednesday morning rising well into the 70s
and possibly near 80 (depending on amt of high clouds) Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Sunday: ...From previous discussion due to
ongoing severe weather... Latest guidance continues to come into
better agreement on the timing of another approaching cold front
towards end of the work week. Per latest guidance, with sfc high
pressure offshore, sfc low over the central Plains will continue to
strengthen as it very slowly propagates northeastward towards the
Upper Midwest through into Friday. Aloft, southern stream trough
will strengthen and deepen as it shifts eastward, joining the
northern wave energy and becoming an upper closed low. Nearly
expanding across most of the CONUS, the center of this feature will
eject into the upper Midwest into Friday night, while at the sfc,
the parent low's cold front will already be in the process of
pushing eastward through the FA in the morning hours. Given how far
out this feature is, there's still plenty of time for temporal and
spatial changes, but overall anticipate shower and thunderstorm
chances to return as early as Thursday. Ahead of the front where the
Southeast will once again be well in the warm sector, it'll be
another Spring-like system on tap for the last weekend in April,
with dewpoints nearing 60 degrees and high temperatures on Thursday
ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of the I-85
corridor and in and around the Charlotte Metro area. Behind the
exiting system, upper troughing will linger and swing overhead
Saturday and Saturday night, with lingering precip along the TN
border possible, where elsewhere, a drying trend will be already
occurring. Though temperatures will drop to below normal behind the
exiting front, do anticipate temperatures attm to remain above
freezing in the mountains, thus do not anticipate any mention of
snow attm.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Main concern is timing line of slow-moving
convection still west of the Upstate TAF sites at time of 00z TAF
issuance. The latest high-res models seem to be initializing this
well, and so the timing of tempo groups for TSRA is based mostly on
them. Not as confident how well the activity will hold up by the
time it reaches CLT, but will keep a tempo for the 03-05z time frame
for now. Once the front pushes thru to the east, winds will shift to
SW, then WNW Monday morning. Winds will be gusty thru the evening,
with some lull possible overnight, then becoming gusty again late
Monday morning (although not as strong as earlier today). Skies
should clear out, with some stratocu banking up against the western
slopes of the mountains, which are not expected to reach KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue through mid-week. The next
cold front bringing moisture and potentially strong storms will
approach the area late Thursday thru Friday.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  93%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  89%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  89%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  96%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  98%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     High Wind Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-
     048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...ARK/TDP
SHORT TERM...Munroe
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1018 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>006-
010-011-019-160230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Anderson-Abbeville-Greenwood-
1018 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible sometime late
Thursday into Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ007>009-012>014-160230-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Laurens-Chester-
1018 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 72 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible sometime late
Thursday into Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
905 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

GAZ028-SCZ010-150130-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
905 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HART AND CENTRAL
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 905 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Hartwell, or near Reed Creek, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Hartwell, Homeland Park, Piedmont, Williamston, Northlake,
Reed Creek, West Pelzer, Anderson Airport and Lake Hartwell.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size hail and very heavy rainfall rates
up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3445 8302 3472 8269 3479 8254 3471 8246
      3468 8246 3467 8247 3466 8247 3466 8246
      3462 8245 3459 8242 3457 8243 3431 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0105Z 230DEG 43KT 3443 8289

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
938 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

SCZ006-007-010-012-150215-
Laurens SC-Anderson SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
938 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 937 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Anderson, or near Williamston, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, Mauldin, Simpsonville, Five
Forks, Fountain Inn, Piedmont, Belton, Woodruff and Williamston.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3447 8255 3463 8268 3497 8218 3475 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 234DEG 43KT 3461 8254

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
940 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

NCZ506>510-150215-
Greater Rutherford NC-Polk Mountains NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Eastern Polk NC-
940 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...
RUTHERFORD AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 940 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Columbus, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Columbus, Spindale, Tryon, Bostic,
Chimney Rock State Park, Green Hill, Mill Spring and Thermal City.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible in these areas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3558 8182 3558 8180 3559 8179 3559 8177
      3561 8176 3560 8172 3559 8171 3558 8169
      3539 8170 3519 8218 3520 8224 3535 8230
      3539 8226 3541 8227 3569 8186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 242DEG 49KT 3536 8214

WJM

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