Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will stall across the region through Saturday
maintaining a chance of showers and storms. A stronger system will
bring more widespread storms to the area on Sunday and Sunday night,
with severe weather possible. The weather will improve significantly
through mid-week next week, with the next system expected Thursday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 10:45 EDT Saturday:  Adjusted POPs to better match latest
radar trends.  Currently most rain is in the eastern third of the FA
along a frontal boundary, with some widely scattered showers
elsewhere.  As showers have been persistent over areas from Chester
(SC) to Davidson (NC) Counties, some flooding issues will continue
for the next couple hours at least.  CAM models have the
precipitation moving eastward and declining over the next 5 hours.
Precipitation should become very widely scattered after that, with
the next round of significant storms expected as major system
advances on Sunday.  The current front over the southeast third of
the FA returns as a warm front tonight, raising dewpoints and
putting the entire area in the warm, moist sector ahead of a major
cold front with strong vertical shear.  Some of the ingredients for
severe weather will certainly be present, but instability may still
be modest with SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg at peak heating in the
afternoon.  Rather strong deep layer shear will make this a
situation to watch closely.

Tonight will see accelerating southerly flow in advance of cold
front marching across the TN Valley. Very gusty winds will develop
on the high peaks and ridge tops of the southern Appalachians, with
advisory-level winds most likely being contained to elevations above
4000 ft (or higher) in the warm advection flow. Increasing
mechanical lift near the Blue Ridge escarpment will also lead to
increasing chances for showers/perhaps a TS or two through the
night.  Temps will remain well above normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday: The short term picks up Sunday evening
(06Z Monday)just after the main frontal passage. Some scattered
thunderstorms may linger into the overnight period, but those should
quickly move off to the east by 12Z. After that, expect only some
light NW flow showers to remain in the higher terrain, and then only
for a few hours into the later morning. Dry surface high pressure
and upper ridging will build in over the area late Monday through
Wednesday, keeping conditions dry and sunny for the balance of the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday: Expect a dry weather pattern to kick off
the extended forecast period on Tuesday as sfc high pressure
dominates the weather pattern with semi-flattened upper ridging
aloft across much of the CONUS. Into Wednesday, latest guidance
continues to shift sfc high pressure eastward off the Carolinas
coast as, back to the west, upper ridge builds ahead of the next
approaching weather system. While timing remains the main question
for the next approaching system, latest guidance overall continues
to trend towards a cold front pushing through northeast GA and the
western carolinas on Friday. With this system, expect shower and
thunderstorm chances to return, with an unsettled weather pattern on
tap for the end of the week.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, with high
temperatures nearing 80 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday along and
south of the I-85 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will remain
above normal as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Current forecast has scattered thunderstorms
which will persist through the evening, followed by scattered
showers.  A weak frontal boundary separates southerly to
southwesterly winds at KAND, KGSP, and KCLT from more northeasterly
winds at KAVL and KHKY.  Winds; however, have been somewhat variable
at only 5 or so kts.  As boundary moves north as a warm front in
advance of major system approaching from the west, winds will become
southeasterly at all locations this afternoon and tonight.  Winds
will steadily be increasing overnight as low strengthens.  With
moist advection and rain today, some fog is likely in the morning at
most locations.

At KCLT, with forecast extending to 00Z tomorrow, aerodrome will be
impacted by passage of possible squall line around 21Z to 00Z, as
well as increased gusty winds as major cold front reaches the area.

Outlook: Visby and/or cig restrictions will likely persist into
Sunday and Sunday night ahead of and along an approaching strong
cold front. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday, some of which will be strong to severe. VFR
conditions should return early next week behind the cold front, and
likely continue through mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       Med   75%     Med   72%     Med   61%     Low   52%
KGSP       High  83%     Med   61%     Med   78%     Med   71%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   66%     Med   66%     Med   69%
KHKY       Med   66%     Med   61%     Med   72%     High  87%
KGMU       Med   75%     Med   66%     Med   78%     Low   58%
KAND       High  91%     High 100%     Med   72%     Low   52%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...JDL/WJM
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
605 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
605 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through tonight. An
isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be rule out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
morning through Sunday evening. The primary threat will be damaging
winds. Large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in areas that
experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ071-131515-
Mecklenburg NC-
1040 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL
1115 AM EDT...

At 1039 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area
of heavy rain along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of
Kannapolis to near Indian Land, and moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte,
Northeast Charlotte, Southwest Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews,
Pineville and Freedom Park.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8070 3503 8077 3503 8080 3500 8084
      3510 8093 3551 8080 3542 8075 3540 8077
      3535 8070 3527 8067 3526 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 246DEG 13KT 3545 8072 3502 8090

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1124 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ071-072-082-131630-
Union NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-
1124 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
CABARRUS...SOUTHERN MECKLENBURG AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL
1230 PM EDT...

At 1123 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 6 miles northeast of Indian Land, or near The
Arboretum, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Matthews, Mint Hill, Pineville, Freedom
Park and Reedy Creek Park.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8082 3505 8088 3511 8093 3510 8094
      3514 8098 3535 8070 3520 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 245DEG 17KT 3508 8077

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ082-131730-
Union NC-
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

At 1248 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area
of heavy rain along a line extending from 17 miles southwest of
Albemarle to 9 miles southwest of Monroe, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wesley Chapel, Wingate, Lake Park, Mineral
Springs, Fairview In Union County, Waxhaw, Hemby Bridge and
Marshville.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8029 3491 8046 3493 8077 3496 8080
      3496 8081 3519 8051 3518 8049 3518 8048
      3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041
      3518 8037 3517 8036 3518 8031 3519 8030
      3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 254DEG 16KT 3519 8041 3492 8069

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1256 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

SCZ002-003-005-006-131745-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
1256 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pickens, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Pickens, Berea, Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State
Park, Cherrydale Point, Furman University, Pleasant Ridge State Park,
Pumpkintown and Dacusville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8277 3496 8283 3511 8243 3489 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 254DEG 19KT 3489 8270

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

SCZ003-006-131815-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 144 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Travelers Rest, moving
east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Tigerville, Lake Robinson, Travelers Rest, Pleasant
Ridge State Park, Glassy Mountain, Cleveland and Gowensville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8250 3507 8252 3518 8226 3507 8222
      3500 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 254DEG 19KT 3501 8241

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
156 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ049-050-053-503>506-131900-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Mitchell NC-
156 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY
AND WEST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 6 miles west of Marion, or 4 miles northeast of
Old Fort, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Old Fort, Lake James State Park, B.R. Parkway-Little
Switzerland To Linville, Lake James, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little
Switzerland, Linville Falls, Montreat, Nebo and Pleasant Gardens.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8178 3552 8216 3556 8227 3570 8232
      3592 8200 3591 8198 3593 8195 3594 8196
      3595 8196 3596 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 232DEG 12KT 3568 8212

Carroll