Tornado Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

917 
WWUS52 KGSP 131956
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
356 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCC003-023-027-035-132006-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190413T2015Z/
Catawba NC-Alexander NC-Caldwell NC-Burke NC-
356 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL CATAWBA...SOUTHWESTERN
ALEXANDER...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND EAST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

If you observed large hail or wind damage, please report it to the
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free,
1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet
it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and
the specific location where it occurred.

LAT...LON 3571 8159 3580 8159 3588 8120 3565 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 266DEG 17KT 3576 8140 

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
324 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong system will bring more widespread storms to the area on
tomorrow and tomorrow night, with severe weather possible. The
weather will be dry through mid-week next week, with the next storm
system expected Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2:30pm EDT Saturday:  Quite a bit of weather in the near term
with on-going thunderstorms and hydro concerns today, and a round of
possibly severe storms anticipated Sunday afternoon, along with high
winds in the mountains.

Some severe weather today is limited to one or two severe storms and
some flooding problems in a few areas receiving persistent heavy
rain. Warm front lifts through the area this evening, and more
widespread severe activity is likely on Sunday.  Storm total
precipitation is only around an inch, but that is an areal average.
Cores of storms will locally produce heavy rain, and possibly severe
weather of various forms.

Currently, a powerful upper storm system is moving through the
Southern Plains and will be driving severe weather from East Texas
to Alabama today and tonight.  By Sunday morning, GSP will be in the
warm sector with a major cold front to the west, and a warm front to
the north; with the fronts intersecting at a triple point low in TN.
As cold front advances with upper storm system, there is a strong
chance for a round of severe storms to pass through the FA from west
to east from 2pm to 8pm on Sunday.

Shear is quite high on Sunday, with bulk shear likely reaching 50 to
70kts.  Instability with LI to -4 is less impressive, but such high
levels of shear will bear close watching in any case.  CAM models
this afternoon continue to show a heavy squall line crossing the
region on Sunday, along with pronounced updraft helicity centers
that are particularly impressive, given the subdued instability.

850mb winds around surface low of the synoptic system are quite
strong, now showing in the GFS at 40 to 50kts for much of Sunday,
giving gusty winds to 25 or 30kts at the surface most places on
Sunday, and requiring a high wind warning for elevations above 3500
feet in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday: The short term picks up Sunday evening
(06Z Monday)just after the main frontal passage. Some scattered
thunderstorms may linger into the overnight period, but those should
quickly move off to the east by 12Z. After that, expect only some
light NW flow showers to remain in the higher terrain, and then only
for a few hours into the later morning. Dry surface high pressure
and upper ridging will build in over the area late Monday through
Wednesday, keeping conditions dry and sunny for the balance of the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday: The medium range begins Wednesday night
with the area still under the influence of dry surface high
pressure. 12Z guidance has followed the previous trend of keeping
the next system well to our west through at least 00Z Friday, so
Thursday should be pop-free as well, despite some increasing
cloudiness. A deep upper-level trough and strong surface cyclone
will make their way across the central CONUS, with the leading edge
of the trailing cold front arriving in our CWFA by late Thursday
overnight/Friday morning. This system looks quite dynamic, and our
area will most likely end up well into the warm sector on Friday.
Timing remains the biggest question (a frontal arrival overnight vs.
peak diurnal heating on Friday will make a huge amount of difference
in available instability), but the kinematics and thermodynamics
look quite favorable for severe weather potential across the
southern Appalachians some time on Friday. Uncertainty remains,
especially this far out, though it should be noted that the SPC has
placed much of our area in the Day6/7 15% risk area for severe
weather. This system will need to be watched closely for the next
week.

The surface cold front should be well east of our area by Saturday
morning, though a deep upper trough passing Saturday will keep max
temps about a category below normal. Surface high pressure will keep
the southeast dry for the balance of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Current forecast has scattered thunderstorms
which will persist through the evening, followed by scattered
showers.  A weak frontal boundary separates southerly to
southwesterly winds at KAND, KGSP, and KCLT from more northeasterly
winds at KAVL and KHKY.  Winds; however, have been somewhat variable
at only 5 or so kts.  As boundary moves north as a warm front in
advance of major system approaching from the west, winds will become
southeasterly at all locations this afternoon and tonight.  Winds
will steadily be increasing overnight as low strengthens.  With
moist advection and rain today, some fog is likely in the morning at
most locations.

At KCLT, with forecast extending to 00Z tomorrow, aerodrome will be
impacted by passage of possible squall line around 21Z to 00Z, as
well as increased gusty winds as major cold front reaches the area.

Outlook: Visby and/or cig restrictions will likely persist into
Sunday and Sunday night ahead of and along an approaching strong
cold front. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected Sunday, some of which will be strong to severe. VFR
conditions should return early next week behind the cold front, and
likely continue through mid-week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       Med   73%     Med   72%     Low   56%     Med   67%
KGSP       High  82%     Med   68%     Low   46%     Med   62%
KAVL       High  86%     Med   62%     Med   73%     Low   59%
KHKY       Med   71%     Low   52%     Med   69%     Med   76%
KGMU       High  87%     High  82%     Med   65%     Med   67%
KAND       High  93%     Med   65%     Low   59%     High  86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT Sunday
     for NCZ033-048>052-058-059-062>064.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...Carroll
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
605 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-141015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
605 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through tonight. An
isolated severe thunderstorm or two cannot be rule out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
morning through Sunday evening. The primary threat will be damaging
winds. Large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy
rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially in areas that
experience multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ082-131730-
Union NC-
1249 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 130
PM EDT...

At 1248 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area
of heavy rain along a line extending from 17 miles southwest of
Albemarle to 9 miles southwest of Monroe, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wesley Chapel, Wingate, Lake Park, Mineral
Springs, Fairview In Union County, Waxhaw, Hemby Bridge and
Marshville.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8029 3491 8046 3493 8077 3496 8080
      3496 8081 3519 8051 3518 8049 3518 8048
      3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042 3516 8041
      3518 8037 3517 8036 3518 8031 3519 8030
      3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 254DEG 16KT 3519 8041 3492 8069

JMP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1256 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

SCZ002-003-005-006-131745-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
1256 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND
NORTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pickens, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Pickens, Berea, Travelers Rest, Slater-Marietta, Paris Mountain State
Park, Cherrydale Point, Furman University, Pleasant Ridge State Park,
Pumpkintown and Dacusville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8277 3496 8283 3511 8243 3489 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 254DEG 19KT 3489 8270

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

SCZ003-006-131815-
Greenville Mountains SC-Greater Greenville SC-
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 144 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Greenville Downtown, or near Travelers Rest, moving
east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Slater-Marietta, Tigerville, Lake Robinson, Travelers Rest, Pleasant
Ridge State Park, Glassy Mountain, Cleveland and Gowensville.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Dime to nickel size hail can cause considerable damage to vehicles.
Consider moving vehicles to a covered storage area before the storm
arrives.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8250 3507 8252 3518 8226 3507 8222
      3500 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 254DEG 19KT 3501 8241

Carroll

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
156 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NCZ049-050-053-503>506-131900-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Mitchell NC-
156 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY
AND WEST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 6 miles west of Marion, or 4 miles northeast of
Old Fort, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Old Fort, Lake James State Park, B.R. Parkway-Little
Switzerland To Linville, Lake James, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little
Switzerland, Linville Falls, Montreat, Nebo and Pleasant Gardens.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph, half inch hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8178 3552 8216 3556 8227 3570 8232
      3592 8200 3591 8198 3593 8195 3594 8196
      3595 8196 3596 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 232DEG 12KT 3568 8212

Carroll

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             4 WNW MORGANTON         35.77N 81.76W
04/13/2019  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN OAK HILL, NC.

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     HAIL             1 N MORGANTON           35.76N 81.70W
04/13/2019  E1.25 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF
            MORGANTON,NC.

&&

JPT