Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Green Bay, WI

787 
WWUS53 KGRB 201819
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
119 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC029-201829-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190720T1845Z/
Door WI-
119 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4525 8690 4519 8692 4517 8697 4510 8695
      4501 8710 4492 8713 4492 8718 4522 8730
      4522 8721 4533 8710 4534 8701 4541 8698
      4541 8695 4542 8693 4540 8693 4541 8688
      4540 8684 4543 8682 4538 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 220DEG 37KT 4541 8706 4531 8695 4511 8687 

$$

Eckberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Apex of intense bow echo now racing east across Lake Michigan.
Other than areas within the lakeshore still under SVRs, there is a
lull ongoing across the area.

Focus now shifts to the next line advancing east from western
Wisconsin. That line produced widespread SVR gusts in SD/MN
earlier this morning. It has thus far been able to maintain severe
intensity despite following behind the initial line. However,
there are signs the line may be beginning to weaken, with the
stronger portion of the line shifting to the south. The line is
now almost straight, without an obvious bowing signature. The
radar presentation also does not look as impressive. That said, it
is still possible the line could re-intensify. Need to keep WW529
intact until it becomes clear the line no longer poses a threat
of severe weather.

Although widespread flooding has not occurred thus far, will opt
to keep the FFWs going until the evolution of the second line
becomes more clear. At least some street flooding has occurred/is
ongoing in urban areas.

UPDATE
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Intense bow echo producing damaging winds is racing east across
the southern part of the forecast area. Locations north of the
apex are in a favorable location for meso-vortex generation and
possible tornadoes. Two TDAs have been noted on dual-pol radar
data, confirming a couple of tornadoes have already occurred.
Flash flooding is also a concern due to very high moisture content
and previous rainfall.

Another highly organized and intense bow is traveling east across
southern Minnesota. Thus far, that system seems unaffected any air
mass modification by the downstream bow.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The main forecast problem of the day will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across central and east-central
portions of the area this afternoon into this evening. Heavy
rainfall with any storms will also be a concern, with the soils
being saturated from the storms Friday night.

IR imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover shifting off
into lower MI with additional cloud cover developing across southern
MN into west-central WI. WV imagery shows the next shortwave/MCS
over the Dakotas early this morning, drifting eastward. Radar
imagery shows some isolated to scattered showers developing along
the boundary in central to east-central WI. Temperatures are running
in 60s north to the low and mid 70s central into east-central, while
dewpoints continue to run in the 60s to low 70s respectively.

Today: A weak surface trough/frontal boundary, draped across central
into east-central WI, will drift slowly to the southeast this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front sags southeastward from
northwest WI. At the same time, a shortwave over the Dakotas this
morning, is expected to slide eastward, reaching northeast Wisconsin
around 18Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible throughout the day along the aforementioned convergence
zone across central into east-central Wisconsin. In addition, the
shortwave passing through the area this afternoon will help to
steepen lapse rates and increase the amount of instability (CAPE) in
the atmosphere, mainly along and south of the southward sagging cold
front. Models are depicting around 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE in
these areas during the afternoon. This, coupled with deep layer
shear values in the 35 to 45 knot range, will lead to strong to
severe thunderstorm potential near and just south of the front. The
main threats will be hail and gusty thunderstorm winds. In fact, SPC
has highlighted this area with a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms in the Day 1 outlook. Heavy rainfall will be a concern as
well with PWAT values running around 1.5 to 2 inches across central
into east-central Wisconsin. These areas picked up 1 to 3 inches of
rain from the Friday night storms, so conditions will be favorable
for flash flooding in those area. Instability tapers off across the
northern portions of the area, which may lead to mainly showers;
however, the shortwave moving through during the afternoon may
steepen lapse rates enough for some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be kept a bit cooler with the more
widespread cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 70s north to the low 80s south.

Tonight into Sunday: The aforementioned shortwave will slide east of
the area this evening as the cold front sags farther to the south.
This will help to gradually decrease the chances for showers and
especially thunderstorms (and severe threat) this evening. Most
places will see precipitation end by the early overnight hours,
especially the north half of the CWA, north of HWY29. Drier air
and high pressure will build across the area late tonight and
linger through the day Sunday, continuing the break in
precipitation. It will feel much more comfortable as well with
high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and dewpoints
falling into the 50s to around 60. Overnight lows will drop into
the 50s to around 60, warmest east-central.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around timing precip chances over
the next week as the region transitions to northwest flow aloft, and
more seasonable weather.  Will continue to use a blend of the ecmwf
and gfs.

Sunday night through Monday night...Shortwave energy will be passing
across the area on Sunday night marking the transition to northwest
flow in the middle and upper levels.  Some moisture above 700mb will
accompany the wave and soundings look favorable for a few light high
based showers, particularly over central to east-central WI.  The
chance for spotty showers should exit by early Monday morning as
drier air pushes in from the northwest. High pressure will then move
into the region for Monday and Monday night, which looks quiet and
comfortable.  No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...Models continue to indicate that weak
shortwave energy will be diving across the area during the Tuesday
to Wednesday time period.  These shortwave impulses could generate a
few showers and storms, though some indications that precip chances
will be tied to the diurnal cycle (higher chances in the afternoon
and early evening).  The flow eventually flattens on Thursday before
turning to the southwest ahead of the next shortwave and cold front.
This front will likely bring the next widespread chance of showers
and storms around next Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Relatively benign conditions are expected this morning outside of
some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms with MVFR
ceilings. Heavier showers and thunderstorms are again possible on
this afternoon, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Hi-res models are in better agreement on developing this activity
during the afternoon hours, generally in the 18-21Z time frame.
Therefore kept a TEMPO group in the southern TAF sites during
this time frame. The convection could reduce conditions to MVFR or
even IFR in the heaviest rainfall. Although there is a marginal
risk for severe weather, the best chance looks to be to the south.

.KOSH...Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger through most of the morning hours. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms will likely move through Oshkosh site later this
afternoon. Some of these could be strong to severe with gusty
winds being the main threat. The most favorable timing for
thunderstorm activity this afternoon is between 18-21Z. Quieter
weather is then expected for Sunday into next week.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Cooley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211615-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, torrential rains, and
possibly producing flash flooding are likely across central and
east-central Wisconsin this afternoon. The greatest risk of
severe weather and flash flooding is along south of Highway 29,
which runs from Wausau, to Shawano, to Green Bay, to Kewaunee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night. It is too
early to determine if these storms will pose a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated, please forward reports to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-211615-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms with strong winds, torrential rains, and
dangerous lightning are expected this afternoon.

Boaters should be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night that may pose
a hazard for boaters.

Skowronski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLOVER                  44.45N 89.53W
07/20/2019                   PORTAGE            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DAMAGE TO RETAIL STORE IN PLOVER. GLASS DOORS BLOWN IN,
            PIPES FELL FROM CEILING.

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STEVENS POINT           44.51N 89.56W
07/20/2019                   PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. ALL TREES APPEAR TO HAVE FALLEN IN THE SAME
            DIRECTION. DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED.

1201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DENMARK                 44.34N 87.83W
07/20/2019                   BROWN              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. DELAYED REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLINTONVILLE            44.61N 88.75W
07/20/2019                   WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING. PARKING LOTS UNDER WATER

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1251 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STURGEON BAY            44.83N 87.38W
07/20/2019                   DOOR               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            14TH AVE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1252 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAPLEWOOD               44.75N 87.48W
07/20/2019                   DOOR               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1254 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TWO RIVERS              44.15N 87.56W
07/20/2019                   MANITOWOC          WI   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BERSCH