Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Green Bay, WI

762 
WWUS53 KGRB 201722
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC029-201800-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190720T1800Z/
Door WI-
1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR DOOR COUNTY...

At 1219 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Pound to near Oconto to 12 miles north of Bay
Shore Park to near Kewaunee to 12 miles east of Two Creeks, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Egg Harbor around 1255 PM CDT.
  Ephraim around 100 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Brussels, Peninsula Center, Fish Creek, Peninsula State Park, Valmy,
Ellison Bay, Whitefish Bay, Shoemaker Point, Carlsville and Namur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4517 8697 4510 8695 4501 8710 4486 8714
      4467 8732 4468 8780 4488 8762 4494 8763
      4502 8755 4494 8759 4491 8754 4493 8745
      4494 8745 4507 8736 4515 8741 4523 8732
      4522 8721 4531 8713 4530 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 224DEG 44KT 4515 8798 4497 8789 4481 8778 4441
8742 4423 8732

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Eckberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Intense bow echo producing damaging winds is racing east across
the southern part of the forecast area. Locations north of the
apex are in a favorable location for meso-vortex generation and
possible tornadoes. Two TDAs have been noted on dual-pol radar
data, confirming a couple of tornadoes have already occurred.
Flash flooding is also a concern due to very high moisture content
and previous rainfall.

Another highly organized and intense bow is traveling east across
southern Minnesota. Thus far, that system seems unaffected any air
mass modification by the downstream bow.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The main forecast problem of the day will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across central and east-central
portions of the area this afternoon into this evening. Heavy
rainfall with any storms will also be a concern, with the soils
being saturated from the storms Friday night.

IR imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover shifting off
into lower MI with additional cloud cover developing across southern
MN into west-central WI. WV imagery shows the next shortwave/MCS
over the Dakotas early this morning, drifting eastward. Radar
imagery shows some isolated to scattered showers developing along
the boundary in central to east-central WI. Temperatures are running
in 60s north to the low and mid 70s central into east-central, while
dewpoints continue to run in the 60s to low 70s respectively.

Today: A weak surface trough/frontal boundary, draped across central
into east-central WI, will drift slowly to the southeast this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front sags southeastward from
northwest WI. At the same time, a shortwave over the Dakotas this
morning, is expected to slide eastward, reaching northeast Wisconsin
around 18Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible throughout the day along the aforementioned convergence
zone across central into east-central Wisconsin. In addition, the
shortwave passing through the area this afternoon will help to
steepen lapse rates and increase the amount of instability (CAPE) in
the atmosphere, mainly along and south of the southward sagging cold
front. Models are depicting around 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE in
these areas during the afternoon. This, coupled with deep layer
shear values in the 35 to 45 knot range, will lead to strong to
severe thunderstorm potential near and just south of the front. The
main threats will be hail and gusty thunderstorm winds. In fact, SPC
has highlighted this area with a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms in the Day 1 outlook. Heavy rainfall will be a concern as
well with PWAT values running around 1.5 to 2 inches across central
into east-central Wisconsin. These areas picked up 1 to 3 inches of
rain from the Friday night storms, so conditions will be favorable
for flash flooding in those area. Instability tapers off across the
northern portions of the area, which may lead to mainly showers;
however, the shortwave moving through during the afternoon may
steepen lapse rates enough for some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be kept a bit cooler with the more
widespread cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 70s north to the low 80s south.

Tonight into Sunday: The aforementioned shortwave will slide east of
the area this evening as the cold front sags farther to the south.
This will help to gradually decrease the chances for showers and
especially thunderstorms (and severe threat) this evening. Most
places will see precipitation end by the early overnight hours,
especially the north half of the CWA, north of HWY29. Drier air
and high pressure will build across the area late tonight and
linger through the day Sunday, continuing the break in
precipitation. It will feel much more comfortable as well with
high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and dewpoints
falling into the 50s to around 60. Overnight lows will drop into
the 50s to around 60, warmest east-central.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around timing precip chances over
the next week as the region transitions to northwest flow aloft, and
more seasonable weather.  Will continue to use a blend of the ecmwf
and gfs.

Sunday night through Monday night...Shortwave energy will be passing
across the area on Sunday night marking the transition to northwest
flow in the middle and upper levels.  Some moisture above 700mb will
accompany the wave and soundings look favorable for a few light high
based showers, particularly over central to east-central WI.  The
chance for spotty showers should exit by early Monday morning as
drier air pushes in from the northwest. High pressure will then move
into the region for Monday and Monday night, which looks quiet and
comfortable.  No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...Models continue to indicate that weak
shortwave energy will be diving across the area during the Tuesday
to Wednesday time period.  These shortwave impulses could generate a
few showers and storms, though some indications that precip chances
will be tied to the diurnal cycle (higher chances in the afternoon
and early evening).  The flow eventually flattens on Thursday before
turning to the southwest ahead of the next shortwave and cold front.
This front will likely bring the next widespread chance of showers
and storms around next Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Relatively benign conditions are expected this morning outside of
some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms with MVFR
ceilings. Heavier showers and thunderstorms are again possible on
this afternoon, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Hi-res models are in better agreement on developing this activity
during the afternoon hours, generally in the 18-21Z time frame.
Therefore kept a TEMPO group in the southern TAF sites during
this time frame. The convection could reduce conditions to MVFR or
even IFR in the heaviest rainfall. Although there is a marginal
risk for severe weather, the best chance looks to be to the south.

.KOSH...Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger through most of the morning hours. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms will likely move through Oshkosh site later this
afternoon. Some of these could be strong to severe with gusty
winds being the main threat. The most favorable timing for
thunderstorm activity this afternoon is between 18-21Z. Quieter
weather is then expected for Sunday into next week.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ030-031-
035>040-045-048>050.
&&

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Cooley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-211615-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, torrential rains, and
possibly producing flash flooding are likely across central and
east-central Wisconsin this afternoon. The greatest risk of
severe weather and flash flooding is along south of Highway 29,
which runs from Wausau, to Shawano, to Green Bay, to Kewaunee.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night. It is too
early to determine if these storms will pose a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters have been activated, please forward reports to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-211615-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1110 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms with strong winds, torrential rains, and
dangerous lightning are expected this afternoon.

Boaters should be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night that may pose
a hazard for boaters.

Skowronski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     TSTM WND DMG     IOLA                    44.50N 89.11W
07/20/2019                   WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALL OVER THE PLACE. STREET
            FLOODING

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1139 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     TSTM WND GST     SHERWOOD                44.17N 88.27W
07/20/2019  M59 MPH          CALUMET            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KLJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1140 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     TSTM WND DMG     APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
07/20/2019                   OUTAGAMIE          WI   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1143 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOWLTON                44.71N 89.68W
07/20/2019                   MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 34 AND OTHER AREAS.

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LONDON              44.38N 88.75W
07/20/2019                   WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITHIN THE
            TOWN. MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED. MANY STREETS COVERED WITH
            DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS. POWER IS OUT.

&&

KLJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SCANDINAVIA             44.46N 89.13W
07/20/2019                   WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ON HOMES, ROADS, WIRES ACROSS THE TOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED

&&

RICHM