Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Green Bay, WI

008 
WGUS73 KGRB 201932
FFSGRB

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
232 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIC009-015-029-061-071-078-083-087-115-135-137-139-201941-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190720T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Brown WI-Kewaunee WI-Door WI-Calumet WI-Menominee WI-Winnebago WI-
Waushara WI-Oconto WI-Waupaca WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-
Shawano WI-
232 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BROWN...KEWAUNEE...SOUTHERN DOOR...
CALUMET...SOUTHERN MENOMINEE...WINNEBAGO...EASTERN WAUSHARA...
SOUTHERN OCONTO...WAUPACA...OUTAGAMIE...MANITOWOC AND SHAWANO
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish this afternoon, with 
additional rainfall of a half inch or less. Flooding is no longer 
expected to pose a threat, but please continue to heed any remaining 
road closures.

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4398 8905 4500 8903 4494 8762
      4490 8777 4463 8793 4468 8780 4487 8764
      4494 8745 4492 8714 4454 8741 4433 8748
      4418 8746 4407 8760 4390 8769 4389 8816
      4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8841 4389 8888

$$

RDM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
658 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

The main forecast problem of the day will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms across central and east-central
portions of the area this afternoon into this evening. Heavy
rainfall with any storms will also be a concern, with the soils
being saturated from the storms Friday night.

IR imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover shifting off
into lower MI with additional cloud cover developing across southern
MN into west-central WI. WV imagery shows the next shortwave/MCS
over the Dakotas early this morning, drifting eastward. Radar
imagery shows some isolated to scattered showers developing along
the boundary in central to east-central WI. Temperatures are running
in 60s north to the low and mid 70s central into east-central, while
dewpoints continue to run in the 60s to low 70s respectively.

Today: A weak surface trough/frontal boundary, draped across central
into east-central WI, will drift slowly to the southeast this
afternoon into this evening as a cold front sags southeastward from
northwest WI. At the same time, a shortwave over the Dakotas this
morning, is expected to slide eastward, reaching northeast Wisconsin
around 18Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible throughout the day along the aforementioned convergence
zone across central into east-central Wisconsin. In addition, the
shortwave passing through the area this afternoon will help to
steepen lapse rates and increase the amount of instability (CAPE) in
the atmosphere, mainly along and south of the southward sagging cold
front. Models are depicting around 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE in
these areas during the afternoon. This, coupled with deep layer
shear values in the 35 to 45 knot range, will lead to strong to
severe thunderstorm potential near and just south of the front. The
main threats will be hail and gusty thunderstorm winds. In fact, SPC
has highlighted this area with a marginal to slight risk of severe
storms in the Day 1 outlook. Heavy rainfall will be a concern as
well with PWAT values running around 1.5 to 2 inches across central
into east-central Wisconsin. These areas picked up 1 to 3 inches of
rain from the Friday night storms, so conditions will be favorable
for flash flooding in those area. Instability tapers off across the
northern portions of the area, which may lead to mainly showers;
however, the shortwave moving through during the afternoon may
steepen lapse rates enough for some isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be kept a bit cooler with the more
widespread cloud cover. High temperatures are expected to be in the
upper 70s north to the low 80s south.

Tonight into Sunday: The aforementioned shortwave will slide east of
the area this evening as the cold front sags farther to the south.
This will help to gradually decrease the chances for showers and
especially thunderstorms (and severe threat) this evening. Most
places will see precipitation end by the early overnight hours,
especially the north half of the CWA, north of HWY29. Drier air
and high pressure will build across the area late tonight and
linger through the day Sunday, continuing the break in
precipitation. It will feel much more comfortable as well with
high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 and dewpoints
falling into the 50s to around 60. Overnight lows will drop into
the 50s to around 60, warmest east-central.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around timing precip chances over
the next week as the region transitions to northwest flow aloft, and
more seasonable weather.  Will continue to use a blend of the ecmwf
and gfs.

Sunday night through Monday night...Shortwave energy will be passing
across the area on Sunday night marking the transition to northwest
flow in the middle and upper levels.  Some moisture above 700mb will
accompany the wave and soundings look favorable for a few light high
based showers, particularly over central to east-central WI.  The
chance for spotty showers should exit by early Monday morning as
drier air pushes in from the northwest. High pressure will then move
into the region for Monday and Monday night, which looks quiet and
comfortable.  No significant changes to temps.

Rest of the forecast...Models continue to indicate that weak
shortwave energy will be diving across the area during the Tuesday
to Wednesday time period.  These shortwave impulses could generate a
few showers and storms, though some indications that precip chances
will be tied to the diurnal cycle (higher chances in the afternoon
and early evening).  The flow eventually flattens on Thursday before
turning to the southwest ahead of the next shortwave and cold front.
This front will likely bring the next widespread chance of showers
and storms around next Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Relatively benign conditions are expected this morning outside of
some scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms with MVFR
ceilings. Heavier showers and thunderstorms are again possible on
this afternoon, mainly across central and east-central Wisconsin.
Hi-res models are in better agreement on developing this activity
during the afternoon hours, generally in the 18-21Z time frame.
Therefore kept a TEMPO group in the southern TAF sites during
this time frame. The convection could reduce conditions to MVFR or
even IFR in the heaviest rainfall. Although there is a marginal
risk for severe weather, the best chance looks to be to the south.

.KOSH...Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms will
linger through most of the morning hours. Heavier showers and
thunderstorms will likely move through Oshkosh site later this
afternoon. Some of these could be strong to severe with gusty
winds being the main threat. The most favorable timing for
thunderstorm activity this afternoon is between 18-21Z. Quieter
weather is then expected for Sunday into next week.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Cooley
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Cooley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
339 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-210845-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
339 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The chance of thunderstorms will continue at times today through
this evening. Some thunderstorms may become strong to severe and
produce large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall. The
greatest risk of severe weather and flash flooding will be south
of WI-29.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night. It is too
early to determine if these storms will pose a severe weather
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-210845-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
339 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon
into this evening. The storm may produce hail and gusty winds that
will pose a threat to boaters.

Boaters should be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night that may pose
a hazard for boaters.

Cooley/MPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WISCONSIN RAPIDS        44.40N 89.84W
07/20/2019                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRANCHES DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD ON A RESIDENTIAL STREET.
            BRANCHES AS BIG AS 5 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND 10 FEET LONG.
            MAY BE LARGER DOWN THE ROAD.

1026 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WISCONSIN RAPIDS        44.40N 89.84W
07/20/2019                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN WISCONSIN RAPIDS. ONE AT CANAL STREET
            ANOTHER AT FISHER STREET.

1026 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BABCOCK                 44.29N 90.13W
07/20/2019                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPORADIC DOWN TREES.

&&

KLJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1036 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1011 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PORT EDWARDS            44.33N 89.84W
07/20/2019                   WOOD               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 54

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WISCONSIN RAPIDS        44.40N 89.84W
07/20/2019                   WOOD               WI   STORM CHASER

            LOTS OF POWER LINES DOWN ON FISHER ROAD

&&

RICHM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STEVENS POINT           44.51N 89.56W
07/20/2019                   PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY TREES DOWN AT AN APARTMENT COMPLEX. ESTIMATED ABOUT
            1 FOOT IN DIAMETER.

&&

KLJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 N STEVENS POINT       44.60N 89.56W
07/20/2019  M56 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VEHICLE PULLED OVER ON INTERSTATE 39 NORTH OF STEVENS
            POINT. ALSO TORRENTIAL RAIN AND WIND ROCKING VEHICLE.

&&

KLJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N STEVENS POINT       44.63N 89.56W
07/20/2019                   PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON INTERSTATE 39 SOUTHBOUND LANE ABOUT 8
            MILES NORTH OF STEVENS POINT.

&&

KLJ