Tornado Warning 33, NWS Fort Worth, TX

454 
WWUS54 KFWD 292100
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

TXC379-467-292110-
/O.CAN.KFWD.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190529T2115Z/
Van Zandt TX-Rains TX-
400 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAN ZANDT AND SOUTHEASTERN
RAINS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3257 9561 3267 9579 3290 9566 3272 9564
      3271 9562 3268 9559 3259 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 212DEG 18KT 3275 9562 

$$

69

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across North Texas out
ahead of a cold front. The latest surface analysis from WPC
indicates that the cold front is roughly along a line from
Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls to Midland/Odessa. Despite modest
low-level flow and marginally favorable low-level hodographs,
strong low-level instability has allowed some of these
thunderstorms to become severe, with numerous reports of wind
damage, hail, and even a few tornadoes having been received. These
thunderstorms will progress slowly east, with the environment
expected to remain favorable for tornadoes and severe weather
through at least sunset. For this reason, Tornado Watch #293 will
remain in effect through 8 PM CDT.

In addition to the severe weather threat, these thunderstorms are
also producing heavy rainfall. In a one-hour period earlier this
afternoon, Fort Worth Alliance Airport (KAFW) recorded over 1.25
inches of rainfall as thunderstorms moved through. The 16Z special
raob from Fort Worth showed precipitable water at 1.79 inches,
which is nearly the daily max for May 29 according to sounding
climatology information. The sounding also revealed a deep warm
cloud layer in excess of 12,000 feet deep. This parameter space
will allow for thunderstorms to be very efficient rainfall
producers as we have already seen, thus the Flash Flood Watch will
continue through 7 AM CDT Thursday morning.

Heading into the extended portion of the forecast (tomorrow and
beyond), the upper-level shortwave trough responsible for kicking
off today's convection will move off into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. In its wake, shortwave ridging will build in,
leading to a brief respite in rain/thunderstorm chances. A weak
shortwave trough will move across West Texas late tomorrow
however, kicking off another round of convection, initially across
the Permian Basin and Llano Estacado. The GFS suggests that some
of this convection could make a run at our western counties by
late Thursday night or early Friday morning, but the NAM is less
excited about this possibility. Just in case, opted to maintain
some chance PoPs generally west of I-35 Thursday night and into
Friday.

Beyond Friday, upper-level ridging should return to our neck of
the woods, bringing about increasing temperatures and decreasing
precipitation chances. That being said, a few subtle shortwave
troughs could set off some nocturnal MCS activity across parts of
Oklahoma and Kansas, which could make a run at our county warning
area (particularly near the Red River) during the early part of
next week. Right now, will keep rain chances on the lower side,
but we will have to monitor trends over the coming days.

37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  84  66  84  69 /  70   0  20  20   5
Waco                69  83  67  84  69 /  70  20  30  40   5
Paris               65  82  61  83  64 /  70   5   5  10   5
Denton              62  82  63  84  66 /  60   0  20  20  10
McKinney            65  82  63  84  66 /  70   0  10  20   5
Dallas              68  85  66  85  69 /  70   5  20  20   5
Terrell             68  83  65  86  67 /  70  10  10  20   5
Corsicana           69  83  66  83  68 /  70  20  20  30   0
Temple              70  82  68  84  70 /  70  10  30  40   5
Mineral Wells       63  82  62  81  65 /  40   0  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>123-131>134.

&&

37/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
253 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
253 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of North Texas,
generally east of Interstate 35, this afternoon, and the threat will
continue into the early evening hours. Tornadoes, damaging winds,
and large hail will all be possible. In addition to the severe
weather threat, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be
possible.

The severe weather threat should diminish late this evening, with
rain chances ending from west to east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across Central Texas Thursday.
Severe storms are not anticipated.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
Friday through Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely across all of North and Central Texas
this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAGINAW                 32.87N  97.37W
05/29/2019                   TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER POLES AND TRAILER DAMAGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             3 N GRAPEVINE           32.97N  97.08W
05/29/2019  E0.75 INCH       TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              33.13N  96.12W
05/29/2019  E0.75 INCH       HUNT               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN GREENVILLE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TORNADO          2 NW FATE               32.97N  96.40W
05/29/2019                   ROCKWALL           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN. LOCATION APPROXIMATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0321 PM     TORNADO          CANTON                  32.55N  95.87W
05/29/2019                   VAN ZANDT          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT FM17 AND I-20 NEAR CANTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             BLOSSOM                 33.67N  95.38W
05/29/2019  E2.75 INCH       LAMAR              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR BLOSSOM.