Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
246 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon across North Texas out
ahead of a cold front. The latest surface analysis from WPC
indicates that the cold front is roughly along a line from
Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls to Midland/Odessa. Despite modest
low-level flow and marginally favorable low-level hodographs,
strong low-level instability has allowed some of these
thunderstorms to become severe, with numerous reports of wind
damage, hail, and even a few tornadoes having been received. These
thunderstorms will progress slowly east, with the environment
expected to remain favorable for tornadoes and severe weather
through at least sunset. For this reason, Tornado Watch #293 will
remain in effect through 8 PM CDT.

In addition to the severe weather threat, these thunderstorms are
also producing heavy rainfall. In a one-hour period earlier this
afternoon, Fort Worth Alliance Airport (KAFW) recorded over 1.25
inches of rainfall as thunderstorms moved through. The 16Z special
raob from Fort Worth showed precipitable water at 1.79 inches,
which is nearly the daily max for May 29 according to sounding
climatology information. The sounding also revealed a deep warm
cloud layer in excess of 12,000 feet deep. This parameter space
will allow for thunderstorms to be very efficient rainfall
producers as we have already seen, thus the Flash Flood Watch will
continue through 7 AM CDT Thursday morning.

Heading into the extended portion of the forecast (tomorrow and
beyond), the upper-level shortwave trough responsible for kicking
off today's convection will move off into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. In its wake, shortwave ridging will build in,
leading to a brief respite in rain/thunderstorm chances. A weak
shortwave trough will move across West Texas late tomorrow
however, kicking off another round of convection, initially across
the Permian Basin and Llano Estacado. The GFS suggests that some
of this convection could make a run at our western counties by
late Thursday night or early Friday morning, but the NAM is less
excited about this possibility. Just in case, opted to maintain
some chance PoPs generally west of I-35 Thursday night and into
Friday.

Beyond Friday, upper-level ridging should return to our neck of
the woods, bringing about increasing temperatures and decreasing
precipitation chances. That being said, a few subtle shortwave
troughs could set off some nocturnal MCS activity across parts of
Oklahoma and Kansas, which could make a run at our county warning
area (particularly near the Red River) during the early part of
next week. Right now, will keep rain chances on the lower side,
but we will have to monitor trends over the coming days.

37

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  84  66  84  69 /  70   0  20  20   5
Waco                69  83  67  84  69 /  70  20  30  40   5
Paris               65  82  61  83  64 /  70   5   5  10   5
Denton              62  82  63  84  66 /  60   0  20  20  10
McKinney            65  82  63  84  66 /  70   0  10  20   5
Dallas              68  85  66  85  69 /  70   5  20  20   5
Terrell             68  83  65  86  67 /  70  10  10  20   5
Corsicana           69  83  66  83  68 /  70  20  20  30   0
Temple              70  82  68  84  70 /  70  10  30  40   5
Mineral Wells       63  82  62  81  65 /  40   0  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-
101>107-116>123-131>134.

&&

37/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
253 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301215-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
253 PM CDT Wed May 29 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Severe thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of North Texas,
generally east of Interstate 35, this afternoon, and the threat will
continue into the early evening hours. Tornadoes, damaging winds,
and large hail will all be possible. In addition to the severe
weather threat, heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be
possible.

The severe weather threat should diminish late this evening, with
rain chances ending from west to east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across Central Texas Thursday.
Severe storms are not anticipated.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
Friday through Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely across all of North and Central Texas
this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
402 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     HAIL             3 E TIOGA               33.47N  96.87W
05/29/2019  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON FM121 3 MILES EAST OF TIOGA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
431 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TORNADO          2 SE KEMP               32.43N  96.21W
05/29/2019                   KAUFMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEMP MOVING ACROSS CEDAR
            CREEK LAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
435 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TORNADO          4 WNW MABANK            32.39N  96.16W
05/29/2019                   KAUFMAN            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO NEAR CEDAR CREEK COUNTRY CLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
450 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE KEMP               32.40N  96.17W
05/29/2019                   KAUFMAN            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** DAMAGE REPORTED AT CEDAR CREEK COUNTRY
            CLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
503 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TORNADO          4 WSW CANTON            32.53N  95.93W
05/29/2019                   VAN ZANDT          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTI-VORTEX TORNADO WITH DEBRIS NEAR HIGHWAY 47

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TORNADO          CANTON                  32.55N  95.87W
05/29/2019                   VAN ZANDT          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO CROSSED I-20 NEAR FM 17