Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

630 
WWUS53 KFSD 270955
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
455 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

SDC087-271005-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190627T1015Z/
McCook SD-
455 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MCCOOK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4385 9739 4402 9758 4426 9723 4402 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 230DEG 37KT 4407 9729 

$$

SDC077-079-097-271015-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190627T1015Z/
Kingsbury SD-Lake SD-Miner SD-
455 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KINGSBURY...LAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MINER COUNTIES...

At 455 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ramona, or 8
miles northwest of Lake Herman State Park, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Ramona around 505 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9739 4402 9758 4426 9723 4402 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 230DEG 37KT 4407 9729 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

032 
WWUS53 KFSD 271011
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
511 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

SDC077-079-097-271021-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190627T1015Z/
Kingsbury SD-Lake SD-Miner SD-
511 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KINGSBURY...LAKE
AND SOUTHEASTERN MINER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4385 9739 4402 9758 4426 9723 4402 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1011Z 230DEG 37KT 4417 9712 

$$

JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
341 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Complicated forecast this morning with well developed complex of
storms working east across South Dakota. Wake low has developed on
the backside of the system, with the winds gusting to near 60 mph in
Faith.  On the southern edge of the complex, have had reports of
heat bursts in Mission SD.

For this morning, followed the idea of the HiRes ARW and
Experimental HRRR which focus the complex mainly along and north of
highway 14 as the cap over the region looks to be quite strong with
10-11 C at 700 mb.  Still wouldn't rule out an isolated storm or two
to try to develop on the south side of the complex.  If the storm is
able to organize slightly, agree with SPC large hail up to 2" are
possible.  With the complex, potential for wind gusts to approach 65
mph. Models are hinting that as the complex works east, it may try
to work south across southwest Minnesota following the thermal
ridge.  Bulk shear is also slightly stronger, so may  be the
potential for a few severe reports despite diurnal timing.

With cold pool lingering across the northeast portion of the
forecast area, have fairly tight gradient in forecast high from the
northeast to the south.

Picture for tonight is unclear as some of the convective allowing
solutions indicate the potential for convection to redevelop along
an outflow boundary late in the day.  Have added low pops east of
highway 59 in southwest Minnesota into Northwest Iowa for the
potential, though it appears focus will be east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Abbreviated discussion beyond today and tonight with active weather.
 Heat still expected Friday through Sunday with heat index values of
95-105 F.  The peak of the heat appears to be on Saturday with
widespread 100-105 heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Convective potential through the first half of this TAF period has
trended north and slower in latest model runs. Confidence is lower
that KFSD will see any thunderstorms, so removed thunder for now,
but will keep a mention of showers mid-late Thursday morning to
indicate favored time frame, should storms develop far enough
south.

Confidence still somewhat higher for KHON, though now looking more
likely toward pre-dawn hours (10Z-12Z) than during the overnight.
Confidence also somewhat higher than KSUX will remain well south
of the convective activity.

After 18Z Thursday, convection expected to push east of the area,
though a few model solutions indicate chance of redevelopment into
southwest Minnesota late in this TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
620 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-271000-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
620 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. These storms will be capable of
producing winds to 65 mph and hail to the size of golfballs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm into the 90s on Friday through Sunday. With
dew points near 70, heat indicies of 95 to 105 can be expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible after 9 PM tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
419 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 AM     HAIL             5 WSW ALEXANDRIA        43.63N 97.87W
06/27/2019  M0.70 INCH       HANSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AT