Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

782 
WWUS53 KFSD 270923
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
423 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

SDC035-270933-
/O.CAN.KFSD.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190627T0945Z/
Davison SD-
423 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning moved out of the 
warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southeastern and east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4394 9761 4371 9750 4362 9789 4376 9797
      4381 9797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 248DEG 28KT 4379 9769 

$$

SDC061-087-097-270945-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190627T0945Z/
Miner SD-McCook SD-Hanson SD-
423 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINER...NORTHWESTERN MCCOOK AND NORTHERN HANSON
COUNTIES...

At 423 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Farmer, or 17
miles east of Mitchell, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south
central Miner, northwestern McCook and northern Hanson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4394 9761 4371 9750 4362 9789 4376 9797
      4381 9797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 248DEG 28KT 4379 9769 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

734 
WWUS53 KFSD 270939
SVSFSD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

SDC061-087-097-270948-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190627T0945Z/
Miner SD-McCook SD-Hanson SD-
439 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MINER...
NORTHWESTERN MCCOOK AND NORTHERN HANSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445
AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for
southeastern and east central South Dakota.

LAT...LON 4394 9761 4371 9750 4362 9789 4376 9797
      4381 9797
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 248DEG 28KT 4383 9755 

$$

JM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
341 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Complicated forecast this morning with well developed complex of
storms working east across South Dakota. Wake low has developed on
the backside of the system, with the winds gusting to near 60 mph in
Faith.  On the southern edge of the complex, have had reports of
heat bursts in Mission SD.

For this morning, followed the idea of the HiRes ARW and
Experimental HRRR which focus the complex mainly along and north of
highway 14 as the cap over the region looks to be quite strong with
10-11 C at 700 mb.  Still wouldn't rule out an isolated storm or two
to try to develop on the south side of the complex.  If the storm is
able to organize slightly, agree with SPC large hail up to 2" are
possible.  With the complex, potential for wind gusts to approach 65
mph. Models are hinting that as the complex works east, it may try
to work south across southwest Minnesota following the thermal
ridge.  Bulk shear is also slightly stronger, so may  be the
potential for a few severe reports despite diurnal timing.

With cold pool lingering across the northeast portion of the
forecast area, have fairly tight gradient in forecast high from the
northeast to the south.

Picture for tonight is unclear as some of the convective allowing
solutions indicate the potential for convection to redevelop along
an outflow boundary late in the day.  Have added low pops east of
highway 59 in southwest Minnesota into Northwest Iowa for the
potential, though it appears focus will be east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Abbreviated discussion beyond today and tonight with active weather.
 Heat still expected Friday through Sunday with heat index values of
95-105 F.  The peak of the heat appears to be on Saturday with
widespread 100-105 heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

Convective potential through the first half of this TAF period has
trended north and slower in latest model runs. Confidence is lower
that KFSD will see any thunderstorms, so removed thunder for now,
but will keep a mention of showers mid-late Thursday morning to
indicate favored time frame, should storms develop far enough
south.

Confidence still somewhat higher for KHON, though now looking more
likely toward pre-dawn hours (10Z-12Z) than during the overnight.
Confidence also somewhat higher than KSUX will remain well south
of the convective activity.

After 18Z Thursday, convection expected to push east of the area,
though a few model solutions indicate chance of redevelopment into
southwest Minnesota late in this TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
620 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-271000-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-
Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-
Union-
620 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South
Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and
southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. These storms will be capable of
producing winds to 65 mph and hail to the size of golfballs.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures will warm into the 90s on Friday through Sunday. With
dew points near 70, heat indicies of 95 to 105 can be expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible after 9 PM tonight.