River Flood Warning 218, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Complicated forecast this morning with well developed complex of
storms working east across South Dakota. Wake low has developed on
the backside of the system, with the winds gusting to near 60 mph in
Faith.  On the southern edge of the complex, have had reports of
heat bursts in Mission SD.

For this morning, followed the idea of the HiRes ARW and
Experimental HRRR which focus the complex mainly along and north of
highway 14 as the cap over the region looks to be quite strong with
10-11 C at 700 mb.  Still wouldn't rule out an isolated storm or two
to try to develop on the south side of the complex.  If the storm is
able to organize slightly, agree with SPC large hail up to 2" are
possible.  With the complex, potential for wind gusts to approach 65
mph. Models are hinting that as the complex works east, it may try
to work south across southwest Minnesota following the thermal
ridge.  Bulk shear is also slightly stronger, so may  be the
potential for a few severe reports despite diurnal timing.

With cold pool lingering across the northeast portion of the
forecast area, have fairly tight gradient in forecast high from the
northeast to the south.

Picture for tonight is unclear as some of the convective allowing
solutions indicate the potential for convection to redevelop along
an outflow boundary late in the day.  Have added low pops east of
highway 59 in southwest Minnesota into Northwest Iowa for the
potential, though it appears focus will be east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

Abbreviated discussion beyond today and tonight with active weather.
 Heat still expected Friday through Sunday with heat index values of
95-105 F.  The peak of the heat appears to be on Saturday with
widespread 100-105 heat index values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

The main concern is the line of thunderstorms moving eastward into
southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa early this morning. Some of
the storms are capable of producing small hail and gusty winds
from 30 to 35 knots. Expect brief MVFR to IFR conditions with
storms and on the back edge of it. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for today, mainly after mid-morning.

Tonight: MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible across southwest
Minnesota and portions of east-central South Dakota as stratus
moves in.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ090-NEZ013-014-SDZ050-058-063-
064-068>071-281130-
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-
Woodbury-Ida-Jackson-Dixon-Dakota-Gregory-Aurora-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Bon Homme-Yankton-Union-
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, south central South
Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this morning. Storms may produce small
hail to the size of dimes and gusty winds to 40 mph.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected to develop today. Heat index
values will approach 100 near the South Dakota/ Nebraska border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices will range from 100 to 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ038-052-057-281130-
Beadle-Jerauld-Brule-
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east
central South Dakota and south central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this morning, but are expected to remain
below severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices will range from 95 to 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-059>062-065>067-281130-
Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Rock-Kingsbury-Brookings-
Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Hutchinson-
Turner-
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Minnesota, east
central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this morning. A few storms may produce
gusty winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of half dollars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices will range from 95 to 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

IAZ001-MNZ089-281130-
Lyon-Nobles-
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa and southwest
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this morning. These storms could produce
small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected Friday through Sunday. Heat
indices will range from 95 to 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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