Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2019
Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 29, 2019, 3:18 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 29, 2019, 3:18 PM MST (22:18 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 29, 2019, 6:15 PM MST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 512 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1398 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 29, 2:34 PM MST, 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 29, 2:34 PM MST, 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 234 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS...look for decreasing afternoon storm coverage and warmer afternoon temperatures across northern Arizona through Saturday. Storm chances to increase from east to west starting Sunday with typical late monsoon season storm chances through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Scattered thunderstorm continue this afternoon along the Mogollon rim from Flagstaff through the White Mountains. A well defined outflow boundary is moving southeastward from Munds Park, and this feature may kick off some storms in the Oak creek and Sedona areas later this afternoon. Elsewhere isolated storms are occurring over areas above 6500, with mostly sunny skies noted across northwest AZ. Friday and Saturday...Progs continue to show the high pressure center to move from southern California to near the 4 corners during this period. This will bring a downward trend in storm coverage both days, with afternoon storm chances limited to along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Light north to northeast steering flow keeps the potential for storms to drop southward from the rim into Gila county Friday afternoon. Max temps will be on a warming trend, with values around 10 degrees above average on Saturday. Fair weather is expected overnight. Long Term...Sunday through Wednesday...The chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase again starting Sunday afternoon. This is the result of another shift in the placement of the high pressure. Model guidance is in good consensus that the center of the high pressure will once again be back over the Four Corners region by Saturday night and introduce a general easterly flow pattern to Arizona. The east to southeasterly flow will help to transport additional moisture back into the County Warning Area for expanded convection on Sunday afternoon and beyond. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Scattered showers and storms to persist along and south of the Mogollon rim through 03z then diminish with fair weather overnight. After 18z Friday, widely scattered storms are forecast along the Mogollon rim from Flagstaff to the White Mountains with fair weather elsewhere. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...For Friday and Saturday, warmer and much drier conditons to return to northern Arizona. Max temps should be from 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Widely scattered afternoon storms are expected along the Mogollon Rim from Flagstaff to the White Mountains Friday, with less coverage forecast Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...East to southeast flow aloft should bring a return of monsoon moisture to eastern Arizona Sunday. Thus, storm coverage is expected to increase again from east to west through Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM PUBLIC...DL LONG TERM PUBLIC...NL AVIATION...DL FIRE WEATHER...DL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 29, 12:37 PM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Aug 29, 1:18 PM MST, 2 hours before
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</html>Special weather statement, Aug 29, 1:22 PM MST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Aug 29, 1:44 PM MST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 144 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 AZZ016-292130- Eastern Mogollon Rim- 144 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST... At 142 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles north of Christopher Creek, or 13 miles northwest of Forest Lakes, moving east at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Chevelon Canyon Lake Campground and Chevelon Canyon Dam. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3442 11104 3460 11098 3456 11077 3436 11077 TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 283DEG 10KT 3450 11093 JJ
Special weather statement, Aug 29, 1:49 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 149 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 AZZ015-292115- Western Mogollon Rim- 149 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEAR MOUNTAINAIRE IN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM MST... At 147 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Mountainaire, or 7 miles south of Flagstaff, moving southeast at 10 mph. Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mountainaire and Upper Lake Mary. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3506 11171 3512 11168 3508 11149 3496 11158 TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 301DEG 9KT 3508 11164 JJ
Special weather statement, Aug 29, 2:16 PM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 216 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 AZZ015-292145- Western Mogollon Rim- 216 PM MST Thu Aug 29 2019 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINAIRE IN COCONINO COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MST... At 215 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Mountainaire, or 9 miles south of Flagstaff, moving east at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Mountainaire, Kachina Village and Upper Lake Mary. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3504 11171 3510 11169 3509 11152 3497 11159 TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 286DEG 7KT 3506 11165 JJ
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 6:47 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Navajo | 88 min |
| Aug 28, 8:35 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 3 hr |
| Aug 29, 12:37 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 23 min | |
| Aug 29, 1:18 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 117 min |
| Aug 29, 1:22 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 23 min | |
| Aug 29, 1:44 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 46 min | |
| Aug 29, 1:49 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 26 min | |
| Aug 29, 2:16 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 29 min | |
| Aug 29, 2:31 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Aug 29, 2:40 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 2 hr |
| Aug 29, 3:32 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 43 min | |
| Aug 29, 3:36 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 39 min |
| Aug 29, 3:58 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Aug 29, 4:25 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 50 min | |
| Aug 29, 4:33 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 27 min |
| Aug 29, 4:54 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 36 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2019Every flash flood warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.