Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
257 PM MST Wed Aug 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect an increase in chances for showers and
thunderstorms across northern Arizona through Thursday, before
chances decrease through Saturday. Storm chances to increase from
east to west starting Sunday. Otherwise, above normal daytime
temperatures and generally light winds are forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Numerous thunderstorms have developed today across areas above
5000 feet. We have had reported of 3/4 inch hail and flooding
rains. Scattered storm coverage is expected to continue through
this evening before diminishing.

Thursday - the center of the high pressure cell is expected to be
near Yuma, with very light winds aloft across northern Arizona.
Expect scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms along the
Mogollon rim and White Mountains, with the possibility of storms
moving southward off the rim into Gila county by late afternoon.
There is a slight chance of storms elsewhere. Drier and more
stable air aloft is shown to move into far western AZ during the
afternoon.

Friday and Saturday. The center of the high pressure cell to
slowly move across northern Arizona. Drier and more stable air
should expand from west to east through this period, with storm
chances limited to the White mountains for Saturday and max temps
from 5 to 10 degrees above normal both days

Sunday through Tuesday...Progs are consistent in the return of
monsoonal moisture as early as Sunday on east to southeast flow.
Expect scattered afternoon storms across the high country and
isolated storms elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Primarily VFR conditions for the
next 24 hours, though areas of MVFR and local IFR with
thunderstorms. Til 03z Scattered thunderstorms to persist across
northern Arizona, with diminishing coverage after 03z. Scattered
storms to redevelop after 18z Thu, especially across the Mogollon
Rim. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For Thursday and Friday, max temperatures should
be from 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Expect scattered thunderstorm
Thursday along the Mogollon Rim with slight chances elsewhere. A
drying trend is expected to return Friday, especially across
northwest Arizona.

Saturday through Monday...Storm coverage to be limited on Saturday
to the White Mountains. Storm coverage is expected to increase again
from Sunday into Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
308 PM MST WED AUG 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             2 E DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF  35.20N 111.62W
08/28/2019  E0.88 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   PUBLIC

            HAIL SIZE WAS DEFINITELY NICKEL SIZE.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
313 PM MST WED AUG 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             1 NNE DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAF 35.21N 111.64W
08/28/2019  M0.88 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED 3 BLOCKS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF MEDICAL
            CENTER. EXACT LOCATION IS AN ESTIMATE.

&&

MCT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
317 PM MST WED AUG 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             1 E HEBER-OVERGAARD     34.41N 110.55W
08/28/2019  E0.50 INCH       NAVAJO             AZ   PUBLIC

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
545 PM MST WED AUG 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE DOWNTOWN FLAGSTAFF 35.22N 111.62W
08/28/2019  M0.83 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            0.83 INCHES MEASURED IN THE SPRUCE AVE WASH
            RAIN GAUGE FROM 1:26 - 2:41 PM. AT 2:47 PM,
            OBSERVERS AT LINDA VISTA STREET REPORTED ASH
            AND TWIGS IN THE RUNOFF FROM THE MUSEUM FIRE
            SCAR. ESTIMATED WATER FLOW THROUGH THE
            DRAINAGE WAS BETWEEN 3 TO 8 INCHES DEEP AND
            ALL WATER WAS CONTAINED WITHIN THE DITCHES.
            REPORT VIA COCONINO COUNTY WEBSITE AND
            FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

MCT

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